Climate Matters
Warming U.S. Cities Face Higher Cooling Demand and Energy Bills
As temperatures rise, so does the need for cooling. Cooling degree days — an estimate of cooling demand — have increased since 1970 in 97% of major U.S. cities analyzed.
Climate Central’s Monthly Briefing Highlights from July 2026
What do experts say?
Dr. Zachary Labe, climate scientist at Climate Central, said:
“Another day, another record, as average global sea surface temperatures continue to shatter new record daily highs. Until we reduce carbon pollution, these record-breaking headlines will continue, and the impacts on communities and ecosystems around the world will only grow worse.”
Global Climate
July 2026 Highlights: Temperature
July 2026 was tied with 2024 for the warmest July on record globally (for land and ocean temperatures combined). Records have been kept since 1850.
Record warmth affected roughly 10.6% of global land and ocean areas in July, the second-highest extent in the record.
The last time July’s global mean temperature was cooler than normal (compared to the 20th-century average) was in 1971.
Global average temperatures over land areas were the third-warmest on record in July.
Global average temperatures over ocean areas were the warmest on record in July.
The latest four Julys are the four warmest on record for global temperatures
July 2026 was the warmest on record for land and ocean temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere. It was the third-warmest for the Southern Hemisphere.
Temperatures over land areas across the Northern Hemisphere were also the warmest on record for the month.
Africa, Asia, and North America reached their warmest July on record in 2026.
Globally, temperatures so far this year rank as the third-warmest on record for any January-July period since data has been kept.
July 2026 Highlights: Other Climate Indicators
The average July carbon dioxide level measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, was 429.1 parts per million (ppm).
Arctic sea-ice extent ranked as the sixth-lowest on record for July. This was 1,760,000 square kilometers below the 1981-2010 average.
Antarctic sea-ice extent ranked as the fifth-lowest on record for July. This was 950,000 square kilometers below the 1981-2010 average.
U.S. Climate
July 2026 Highlights: Temperature
July 2026 ranked as the all-time warmest month on record for the contiguous U.S., surpassing the prior record from the Dust Bowl era in 1936.
Alaska recorded its 20th-coldest July on record (tie), and Hawaii recorded its 11th-warmest July (tie).
Wyoming recorded its warmest July on record for both maximum and minimum temperatures.
July was the sixth-warmest for average maximum temperatures and warmest for average minimum temperatures.
The Southwest climate region saw its warmest July on record for nighttime (minimum) temperatures.
The average temperature so far in 2026 is the second-warmest on record for the contiguous U.S. (January-July 2026).
The Southwest and West climate regions have observed their warmest start to the year on record.
July 2026 Highlights: Precipitation
July 2026 ranked as the 26th-driest July on record for the contiguous U.S.
Alaska recorded its 15th-wettest July on record, while Hawaii had its eighth-wettest.
Maine saw its fourth-driest July on record.
Across the contiguous U.S., the last seven months (January-July 2026) were the 17th-driest on record (tie).
July 2026 Highlights: Drought
As of August 13, 2026, at least 70% of the contiguous U.S. is experiencing abnormally dry or drought conditions.
As of early August, 45 states had areas experiencing moderate or worse drought conditions.
Climate Moment of the Month with Zack
By Dr. Zachary Labe, climate scientist at Climate Central
In talking about climate change, we often share headlines about a month or year being the hottest on record. But did you know that there is actually a seasonality to Earth’s average global temperature? In other words, the absolute temperature of Earth follows a seasonal cycle, typically reaching its highest point in late July and its lowest point in January. This seasonal cycle peaks during Northern Hemisphere summer largely because there is much more land in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere.
Land heats up more quickly than the ocean, so the greater land area produces a stronger seasonal warming signal during boreal summer. In contrast, the Southern Hemisphere is dominated by ocean area, which helps buffer seasonal temperature changes because of its much larger heat capacity. This is why austral summer (December through February in the Southern Hemisphere) does not produce an equally large peak in global mean temperature.
Another related point: We often do not refer to absolute global temperature because actual temperatures can vary widely across different geographic regions, even over distances of only a few miles, such as between a high mountain and a nearby valley. Instead, we usually track temperature anomalies, which are the differences between observed temperatures and their long-term averages over a baseline reference period (usually 30 years). Temperature anomalies are much more highly correlated across large distances than absolute temperatures, which makes them easier and more reliable to average across the entire globe. They also make it easier to compare different datasets with one another, including observations and output from global climate models. Given these advantages, temperature anomalies have become a standardized metric for assessing changes in global temperature and many other climate variables.
Nevertheless, today is one of those times when it is useful to talk about absolute global temperature, since we are near the seasonal peak in Earth’s annual temperature cycle. To be even more specific, using a climate dataset called ERA5, the warmest days of the year in the 1991-2020 global temperature reference period occur in late July and early August, when the global mean temperature reaches about 16.3°C. While it’s still too early to declare the daily maximum for 2026, the current all-time high was observed in July 2024 at around 17.2°C. As of early August 2026, the global temperature has been slightly less than this at around 17°C. Though these exact values are subject to greater uncertainty than standard temperature anomaly metrics, and estimates can vary slightly among different datasets, the overall signal is clear. Given the current outlook for global temperatures in 2027 (see more in Climate Outlook), it is increasingly likely that this record could be broken as long-term warming from human-caused carbon pollution combines with an additional temporary boost from El Niño.
Loading visual assets...
U.S. Weather Extremes
Notable temperature event: Several cities across the Rockies set new all-time high temperature records last month. Among them was Salt Lake City, where temperatures reached 109°F on July 12. This broke the previous record by 2°F, which was most recently reached in 2022 (tied with prior years). Temperature records in Salt Lake City extend back to 1874. The extreme heat is also consistent with the city’s long-term warming trend in July for daytime maximum temperatures. Since 1970, Salt Lake City has overall experienced 22 more extremely hot days, defined as days with maximum temperatures hotter than 95% of its local climatology (74°F). This warming is also contributing to a growing number of fire weather days in the area.
Notable precipitation event: A slow-moving low pressure system in late July contributed to historic rainfall across eastern New York, with widespread storm totals for precipitation in the range of 4 inches to 12 inches. Albany recorded its second-wettest day on record with 5.45 inches falling on July 29. The all-time record for the city is associated with the remnants of Hurricane Floyd on September 16, 1999 (5.60 inches), and data records have been kept there since 1874. According to the National Weather Service, this was a 1-in-a-1,000 year precipitation event for the region and damaging flash flooding was reported in response to the heavy rain rates exceeding 3 inches per hour at times. The New York State Mesonet also recorded its highest 24-hour rainfall total in its network history, with a maximum of 11.79 inches measured in Schodack, New York.
Climate Change Influence
A Climate Central analysis using the Climate Shift Index (CSI) shows that human-caused climate change is a key driver of summertime (June, July, August) warming trends in 91% of U.S. cities analyzed.
July alone has warmed in 185 of 192 cities analyzed across the U.S. since 1970.
On average, Colorado and Utah saw more than 25 days with a CSI level 2 or higher in July 2026, while Florida and New Mexico saw more than 15 days.
Across the contiguous U.S., 36 states averaged at least five days with a CSI level of 2 or higher during the month.
San Juan, Puerto Rico, experienced CSI level 5 conditions on all but one day in July, indicating exceptional heat made far more likely by climate change.
Honolulu, Hawaii and West Palm Beach, Florida also saw 30 days during the month of July with CSI level 2 conditions or higher, meaning climate change made those temperatures at least twice as likely.
A large heat dome across the eastern half of the U.S. early in the month brought record-breaking temperatures, with more than 200 million people experiencing at least one day at CSI level 3 or higher between June 29 and July 5.
Another extreme heat wave impacted the U.S. in mid-July, with nearly half of the contiguous U.S. experiencing temperatures made at least five times more likely by climate change.
Widespread dangerous humid heat, defined as wet-bulb temperatures above 77°F, affected large portions of the central U.S. in late July. Conditions were most widespread on July 27, extending from the Gulf Coast to central Minnesota. The size of the geographic extent of this dangerous humid heat was made more likely by human-caused climate change, according to Climate Central’s new Climate Shift Index: Humid Heat tool.
Extreme heat persisted across the Southwest climate region through the end of July, especially during the overnight hours. Nearly all of Arizona and New Mexico experienced minimum temperatures made at least five times more likely by human-caused climate change.
Learn even more about how climate change altered July’s temperatures in our latest monthly attribution overview. Climate Central also has an explainer on attribution science and how it works.
Climate Outlook
Global Temperature: All indicators point to rising global temperature anomalies over the next 6-12 months in response to the developing El Niño. The latest seasonal forecasts from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), initialized in early August, project global temperature anomalies to peak around February 2027. The multi-model mean reaches approximately 1.7°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline at that time, although there remains some uncertainty, with individual model projections ranging from about 1.4°C to 2.2°C. Despite this spread in potential outcomes, there is high confidence that record-breaking global temperatures will continue into 2027. It is also important to keep in mind that although El Niño events often provide a temporary boost to global temperatures, these new global climate records are ultimately being driven by human-caused climate change. Long-term warming has raised the baseline on which natural climate variability now occurs, making new records increasingly likely. Global sea surface temperatures also continue to set records, with last month reaching the warmest global mean sea surface temperature on record for July. At the regional level, the NMME forecast for September, October, and November shows temperatures at least 0.5°C above normal across most of the contiguous U.S., with the highest likelihood across the northern U.S. and the lowest chances across New Mexico and Texas.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): According to the latest NOAA Climate Prediction Center bulletin, El Niño conditions remain present and have strengthened further over the past month. Subsurface ocean temperatures were particularly high, with anomalies reaching as much as +10°C. Additional indices that capture the state of the atmosphere, such as the Southern Oscillation Index, also indicate that the strengthening El Niño is now clearly influencing both the atmosphere and ocean. The bulletin also notes a 69% chance of a record-breaking strong El Niño event, which would exceed all previous events in the record dating back to 1950. The mean NOAA forecast for the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) exceeds 2.5°C during its peak for the October through December season, and there is now a 95% probability of reaching a “very strong” categorical strength. These high probabilities indicate forecasts are now very confident in an unusual event. Supporting this latest outlook, the latest RONI projections from the NMME forecast models range from about 2.0°C to 3.6°C above the 1991-2020 average across individual model ensemble runs, with the overall multi-model mean peaking at around 2.8°C by the end of 2026. For context, El Niño conditions are typically defined by a positive RONI of at least +0.5°C, while a very strong event is defined as exceeding +2.0°C. To compare with other metrics, the latest NMME multi-model mean peaks at well over 3.5°C using the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI). Another notable feature of the current El Niño has been the rapid transition out of the prior La Niña state, with sea surface temperatures in the key Niño 3.4 monitoring region already approaching the all-time record high that was set in November 2015. Near-surface air temperatures across the entire tropics (between 23.5°S and 23.5°N) also set a new record high for July. This heat reflects both the strengthening El Niño and the long-term warming of the tropics from human-caused climate change. Overall, these key climate indicators continue to point toward a very rare event. However, even among strong and very strong events, no two El Niño events unfold in exactly the same way. While El Niño can raise the odds of certain regional climate impacts, it does not guarantee a specific outcome. Other large-scale climate patterns and shorter-term weather variability can still shape what happens locally. Even so, some climate signals become more predictable during El Niño years, giving communities more lead time to prepare for high-impact extreme events. Given the strong links between El Niño, global temperatures, and local weather conditions, we will continue to closely monitor the latest data and provide monthly updates on the current ENSO forecast.
U.S. Drought: As of mid-August, more than 48% of the contiguous U.S. was in at least moderate drought, and about 9% was experiencing extreme or exceptional drought. Many locations west of the Mississippi River continue to experience persistent drought, with some of the most extreme locations along a band stretching from southern Idaho to western Oklahoma. Drought also continues along the East Coast, though there has been some improvement in the Southeast climate region. The average Palmer Drought Severity Index for the contiguous U.S., which is a measure that captures longer-term drought conditions, was the second-lowest on record for the month of July. The only lower July value for this index was during the Dust Bowl in 1934. Regionally, the most unusually dry Palmer Drought Severity Index values are currently found in Colorado, Nebraska, Utah, and Wyoming, in part reflecting lingering dryness from the historic snow drought last winter. Shorter-term indicators, including soil moisture anomalies, show extremely dry conditions across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, the Upper Midwest, and coastal areas of the Southeast. Streamflow observations also show record low flows in river basins across western Colorado as of mid August, reflecting the persistent drought. In contrast, all-time high streamflow conditions and flooding are found across Indiana and Ohio due to recent flash flooding from a series of strong thunderstorm events. Over the next month, some drought improvement is forecast across the East Coast and over the Southwest, especially in areas impacted by afternoon thunderstorms from the active North American Monsoon this summer. Drought is expected to worsen over the next couple of weeks across the central U.S., as well as in Puerto Rico after the island’s recent historic lack of rainfall.
U.S. Temperature: A broad ridge of high pressure is expected to strengthen over the Southeastern U.S. through the second and into the third week of August. The latest outlook from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center indicates a high likelihood of warmer-than-normal temperatures across much of the southern U.S. during this period, with the greatest chances from Louisiana to Alabama. Meteorological forecasts also suggest that this ridge (heat dome) could become unusually intense, and this will increase the risk of hazardous extreme heat across the region. By late August, the focus of above-normal temperatures is expected to shift toward the Western U.S. while persisting along the southern Gulf Coast. Alaska and Hawaii are also favored to experience above-normal temperatures during the next four weeks.
U.S. Precipitation: In the vicinity of the forecast mid-August heat dome, below-normal precipitation is favored across the Southern U.S. Given the limited recent rainfall, abundant sunshine, and high forecast temperatures, these conditions have also prompted the NOAA Climate Prediction Center to highlight parts of the Southern climate region for the potential rapid onset of drought. In contrast, the eastern and western U.S. are favored to see above-normal precipitation, with the greatest chances across Idaho, Oregon, and Washington through mid-August. Above-normal precipitation is also favored across Hawaii and Alaska over the next several weeks.
U.S. Energy: July 2026 was tied for the sixth-highest count of cooling degree days on record when averaged across the contiguous U.S., with the Northwest climate region recording its second-highest. Wyoming and Utah also saw their highest number of cooling degree days in July. Cooling degree days provide a rough measure of energy demand for air conditioning, with higher values indicating hotter conditions and greater cooling needs. Earlier spring warming and out-of-season heat waves are already increasing cooling demand and extending the length of the cooling season. So far in 2026, the average number of cooling degree days is the third-highest on record. The Northwest climate region continues to record its all-time highest count of cooling degree days for 2026 (January-July). Over the next two weeks, above-normal temperatures across the Southeast will likely increase cooling demand relative to climatological norms. By late August, the focus of the heat is expected to shift westward, bringing greater heat stress across the western U.S.
Contact Experts
Our team of scientists can help interpret these findings and answer your questions. Contact us here.
To request a media interview with a Climate Central scientist about this briefing, please contact Abbie Veitch, aveitch@climatecentral.org.
Methodology
Global and U.S. climate statistics are provided by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), including through the Climate at a Glance tool and NOAAGlobalTemp v6.1.0 dataset. Sea surface temperature data is from NOAA’s ERSSTv6 and OISSTv2.1. All climate regions and divisions follow the standard definitions established by NOAA NCEI. Station-level data is provided by the Applied Climate Information System (ACIS) using ThreadEx, which is developed, maintained, and operated by NOAA’s Regional Climate Centers. We recognize that climate ranking statistics can vary slightly between datasets, and there are higher uncertainties in temperature data prior to 1900.
Drought information is available through the U.S. Drought Monitor, western U.S. snowpack data is provided by the USDA National Water and Climate Center, and streamflow information is from the National Water Dashboard by the U.S. Geological Survey. Weekly and seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks are from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Sea ice data statistics are from the National Snow and Ice Data Center’s Sea Ice Index v4. Carbon dioxide concentration data is from the NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory.
Additional Graphics
Loading visual assets...
Additional Resources
Global Climate Report | July 2026 | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
National Climate Report | July 2026 | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
Learn more about Climate Services at Climate Central.
Learn more about the Monthly Climate Brief.
