Attribution Science

Tools and resources to quantify the role of climate change in weather events

We use peer-reviewed science to answer a question people ask during and after extreme weather events: what role did climate change play?

This branch of climate science — attribution science — measures how much more likely, frequent, or intense specific weather events are because of human-caused climate change. Our Climate Shift Index system translates that research into real-time tools, visuals, and clear takeaways you can use quickly, confidently, and accurately in your coverage.

Want a simple guide to the basics and best practices for communicating about it? Read our Attribution Science Explainer.

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Our Tools #

Use our Climate Shift Index tools to tell the climate story of weather events in real time.

Learn more about the tools and science #

Climate Shift Index

Learn about how the CSI works, the science behind it, and see a list of Frequently Asked Questions on our CSI informational page.

You can find our more detailed, peer-reviewed methodology in A multi-method framework for global real-time climate attribution (Gilford et al, 2022).

Climate Shift Index: Ocean

Learn about how the Ocean CSI works, the science behind it, and see a list of Frequently Asked Questions on our Ocean CSI informational page.

You can find our more detailed, peer-reviewed methodology in Attributing daily ocean temperatures to anthropogenic climate change (Giguere et al, 2024).

Climate Shift Index: Tropical Cyclones

Learn about how the Tropical Cyclone CSI works, the science behind it, and see a list of Frequently Asked Questions on our Tropical Cyclone CSI informational page.

You can find our more detailed, peer-reviewed methodology in Human-caused ocean warming has intensified recent hurricanes (Gilford et al, 2024)

Climate Shift Index: Humid Heat

Learn about how the Humid Heat CSI works, the science behind it, and frequently asked questions on our Humid Heat CSI informational page.

You can find our more detailed, peer-reviewed methodology in Multi-method rapid attribution shows climate change is worsening humid heat (Trudeau et al., 2026).

How you can use CSI #

Whether you’re a meteorologist, journalist, policymaker, community leader, or engaged citizen, the Climate Shift Index gives you a way to connect climate change to weather events (like extreme heat and wildfires) and impacts (like school closures and health issues), locally and globally.

Data interactives #

Use our data interactives to see the connection between climate change-driven weather and the consequences we experience.

ATT: Attribution Science - Data Interactive - Marathons [Updated: November 2025] — Explore how climate change is influencing ideal marathon-running conditions over the next 20 years.

ATT: Attribution Science - Data Interactive - Generational Warming [Updated: November 2025] — Explore how climate change has shaped your lifetime of heat, and the lifetimes of people in different generations.

ATT: Attribution Science - Data Interactive - Pregnancy Heat Risks [Updated: November 2025] — Explore how climate change is influencing the frequency of extreme heat associated with increased risks of preterm birth and examine where pregnant people are most at risk.

Ready-to-use assets #

Use our free materials below in your reporting, and use our tools above to generate custom graphics by location and date.

Graphics & Videos

CM: Attribution Science - Two worlds 2025 (EN)

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CM: Attribution Science -Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events 2025 (EN)

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CM: Attribution Science - Bell Curve 2025 (EN)

Click to download custom graphics

Daily KML maps #

We provide our Climate Shift Index (CSI) daily map in KML format. Access the KML links here.

How Climate Central uses CSI

CSI: Chase Cain - Social Media [Updated: May 2026] — Chase Cain connects the fingerprint of climate change to the historic March 2026 Western U.S. heatwave using the Climate Shift Index

CSI: Simon Clark - Social Media [Updated: May 2026] — Simon Clark uses the Climate Shift Index: Tropical Cyclones to answer whether climate change made Hurricane Melissa worse.

CSI: Meteorologist Amber Sullins (KNXV, Phoenix) — Meteorologist Amber Sullins (KNXV, Phoenix)

CSI: Meteorologist Fernanda Ramos Garcės (Univision 40 North Carolina, Raleigh) — Meteorologist Fernanda Ramos Garcės (Univision 40 North Carolina, Raleigh)

Want to receive real-time local alerts?

We issue alerts for select extreme weather events — such as heat waves, hurricanes, or wildfires — that are made more likely by human-caused climate change.

Attribution Science

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