Extreme Weather Toolkit: Drought

Rising global temperatures are altering the water cycle and increasing the risk of drought in parts of the U.S. 

There are several different types of drought, characterized by a deficit of precipitation (meteorological), soil moisture (agricultural), or runoff (hydrological).

The U.S. has experienced significant droughts of all three types in the past decades and centuries. Drought can lead to short- and long-term impacts on water supplies, agriculture, ecosystems, wildfire risk, public health, and more. 

Warming air increases the potential evaporation from the land and transpiration from plants. This process increases the water available for precipitation in some areas but contributes to drying in other areas. Many, but not all, regions of the world have seen an increase in drought. But in many parts of the world, trends in droughts are unclear. In these regions, scientists have low confidence in the ability to tie changes in droughts to human-caused climate change.  

The southwestern U.S. is one region of the world where trends are clear: droughts are increasing and there is evidence that the increase is tied to human-caused climate change.

For example, the recent southwestern megadrought (2000-2021) was the most severe of the past 1,200 years, and over 40% of the drought’s severity is attributed to human-caused climate change. Risks of severe and prolonged megadroughts in the Southwest are projected to intensify over this century with continued warming. 

As the climate continues to warm, the western U.S. also faces increasing risks of hydrological drought due to declining snowpack and earlier spring melt. 

Throughout this century, human-caused warming is projected to result in drier summer soils  across much of the U.S. and particularly in the Southwest. 

According to the latest IPCC reports, warming since the 1950s has also increased the frequency of concurrent heatwaves and droughts on a global scale. Throughout 2020 and 2021, the western U.S. suffered a series of compound heat, drought, and wildfire events that impacted communities and ecosystems and caused more than $38 billion in damages. 

Updated: May 2025

Resources

These resources explore the science, trends, and local impacts of drought

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Climate Matters

Water in the West

This week, we explain how exceptional drought and our warming climate put western water supplies at risk.

Climate Matters

Drought and Deluge in 2022

2022 has been a boom or bust year for precipitation. Heavy rain caused devastating flash floods in some parts of the U.S., while scarce precipitation has contributed to prolonged drought in other areas.

Climate Matters

Drought and Western Snowpack

Drought conditions are intensifying across much of the United States, especially in the West — impacting agriculture and recreation, as well as energy generation and natural ecosystems.

Climate Matters

Climate Change & Crops

As dry spells and heat waves collide more often, farmers face damaging impacts to crops.

Climate Matters

Vulnerability to Drought

A recent study scored U.S. states on their overall vulnerability to drought, as being driven by three factors: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity

Climate Matters

Wettest Seasons in U.S. Regions

Water supplies, agriculture, and ecosystems all rely on precipitation. Explore seasonal precipitation patterns in U.S. states and regions and see how they’re changing.

Climate Matters

World Water Day

Happy World Water Day! We explore how the increased flooding, drought, and heat from climate change are impacting our water supply.

Climate Matters

Local Climate Hazard Pile-Up

Unchecked greenhouse gas emissions could hit some U.S. locations with up to three severe, nearly simultaneous climate hazards by 2050 — but moderate to deep emissions cuts could significantly reduce these dangers.

Partnership Journalism

Drought, record warmth fuel historic wildfire risk in NJ

(with NJ Spotlight)