Monthly Attribution Overview – July 2026

An analysis of how climate change boosted United States temperatures in July 2026

Using Climate Central’s Climate Shift Index (CSI) tool to measure the impact of climate change on daily temperatures across the United States, as well as NOAA’s Applied Climate Information System (ACIS) to find daily temperature information, we have compiled a high-level overview of how climate change has affected temperature trends in April in cities across the United States. (Dataset downloadable as an Excel workbook here.)

1. High-level findings

• Overall, the U.S. saw above-average temperatures in July, with an average anomaly — or difference from normal — of 1.5°F across 192 cities.

• Twenty-one cities experienced one of their top five warmest July temperatures on record. On average, stations have data dating back to 1893.

• Elevated Climate Shift Index values occurred in all nine U.S. Climate Regions, including the Northwest, Southwest, West, Northern Rockies and Plains, South, Southeast, Upper Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Northeast.

• July 2026 was exceptionally warm, mirroring the long-term July warming trends, which show that nearly all cities analyzed have warmed since 1970, consistent with findings from Climate Central’s 2025 Summer Package. 

Figure 1. Temperature anomalies (differences from normal) for July 2026 relative to 1991-2020 normals. Analysis based on threaded ACIS station-level data.

Figure 2. Statewide average days with a CSI level 2 or higher for July 2026. Analysis based on ERA5 data.

2. Local temperature anomaly analysis

• The average temperature anomaly — or difference from normal — across the 192 cities analyzed was 1.5°F. 

• July temperatures were overwhelmingly warm, with 169 cities recording warmer-than-average conditions, compared to four cities that experienced cooler-than-average conditions.

• Temperatures were elevated across many areas in the Northwest, Southwest, West, Northern Rockies and Plains, South, Southeast, and Upper Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. The Northern Rockies and Plains stood out as the warmest region, with average temperatures more than 4.0°F above normal. 

• Forty-three cities experienced one of their top ten warmest Julys on record.

• The most unusually warm city in July was Rapid City, which was 6.9°F warmer than usual.

• Of the 192 locations analyzed, most (185) showed long-term warming trends for July, indicating that these cities have warmed on average since 1970.

• Reno, Nevada, experienced the greatest increase, with average July temperatures 12.5°F warmer than in 1970.

Table 1. ACIS stations with the highest July 2026 temperature anomaly.

Table 2. ACIS stations with the fastest warming July since 1970.

3. Local Climate Shift Index analysis

• San Juan, Puerto Rico, had 31 days at or above CSI 2 in July, indicating that temperatures on those days were made at least two times more likely because of climate change.

• Forty-three cities across the country experienced at least a week's worth of days at or above CSI 2.

• On average, cities in the Southwest experienced the highest number of days (22) with a CSI of 2 or above.

Table 3. ACIS stations with the highest number of days at or above CSI 2 during July 2026.

METHODOLOGY

Calculating the Climate Shift Index

All Climate Shift Index (CSI) levels reported in this brief are based on daily average temperatures and ERA5 data. See the frequently asked questions for details on computing the Climate Shift Index, including a summary of the multi-model approach described in Gilford et al. (2022).

City analysis

We analyzed 192 Applied Climate Information System (ACIS) stations associated with U.S. cities. For each city, we found the CSI time series from the nearest 0.25° grid cell. We calculated the number of days at CSI levels 2, 3, 4, and 5. We used ACIS data to find the average monthly temperatures, temperature anomalies (compared to 1991-2020 normals), and precipitation information, and to derive average monthly warming trends for each city.

Regions

Regions are defined by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information climate regions.