Can Offshore Wind Survive the Headwinds?

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BY BEN TRACY, SENIOR CLIMATE CORRESPONDENT ON ASSIGNMENT FOR CLIMATE CENTRAL

America is entering a new era of electricity demand.

The explosive growth of artificial intelligence, sprawling data centers, electric vehicles, and the broader electrification of the economy are all driving a sharp increase in power consumption. Energy experts warn that without major new sources of electricity, consumers could face higher utility bills and increasing strain on the grid.

Off the East Coast, a new source of power is rising from the ocean.

Massive offshore wind farms are beginning to generate electricity for hundreds of thousands of homes, with several more projects expected to come online in the next two years. Supporters say offshore wind can help meet growing demand, improve energy security, and reduce dependence on fossil fuels. But just as the industry begins to deliver on its promises, it is facing some of its strongest headwinds yet.

Building Bigger Than Ever

To understand the scale of modern offshore wind, it helps to start on land.

Near Boston, at the Wind Technology Testing Center, engineers are putting some of the world's largest turbine blades through punishing tests before they ever reach the ocean.

"This is just about 220 feet long," said Carly Lavender, a senior test engineer at the facility.

The center is the largest wind blade testing facility in North America. Here, blades longer than the wingspan of a Boeing 747 are subjected to 25 years of simulated stress in about 10 months of testing.

"We do full-scale structural testing of wind turbine blades," Lavender said.

The goal is to identify any weaknesses before the blades are installed offshore, where repairs can be costly and difficult.

"We’re trying to make sure it won’t break when it’s out in the field," said Lavender.

When Failure Happens Offshore

Despite extensive testing, failures can still occur.

In 2024, a turbine blade broke during construction of Vineyard Wind, one of the nation's first utility-scale offshore wind projects south of Martha's Vineyard. Pieces of fiberglass and foam washed ashore, alarming residents and prompting investigations.

The incident became a flashpoint for critics of offshore wind and highlighted the challenges of launching a new industry at scale.

Today, Vineyard Wind's 62 turbines generate enough electricity to power roughly 400,000 Massachusetts homes. Additional projects under construction, including the massive Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project, are expected to help deliver roughly 6 gigawatts of offshore wind power by the end of 2027. That would be enough electricity for about 3 million homes.

A Growing Need for New Electricity

Offshore wind arrives at a time when America is already producing record amounts of renewable energy.

According to Climate Central, electricity generation from land-based wind and solar has more than tripled over the past decade. Yet demand continues to climb, driven in part by power-hungry AI data centers and the growing electrification of transportation, buildings, and industry.

"Part of the challenge of bringing affordable electricity to the citizens of the United States is that we don't have enough supply of electrons on the grid," said Kris Ohleth of the Special Initiative on Offshore Wind.

Supporters argue that offshore wind represents one of the few large-scale energy resources available near many of the country's biggest population centers, particularly along the Northeast coast where land is limited and electricity demand is high. Offshore winds also tend to be stronger and more consistent than winds on land. It is also an energy source that isn't tied to global fuel markets.

"This type of power is always delivered by Americans to Americans," Ohleth said.

Advocates say that increasing domestic electricity generation could help improve grid reliability, reduce exposure to fuel price volatility, and lower greenhouse gas emissions.

Headwinds on the Horizon

Even as turbines rise offshore, the industry's future has become increasingly uncertain.

Project costs have climbed sharply in recent years due to inflation, supply-chain disruptions, and higher interest rates. Several developers have renegotiated contracts, delayed projects, or scaled back plans.

At the same time, the Trump administration has taken steps to slow offshore wind development, pausing or challenging some projects and limiting new development in federal waters. It has also paid several companies to abandon projects that had been approved with federal permits. The actions have sparked legal challenges from states, developers, and environmental groups that argue offshore wind will be needed to meet future electricity demand.

"Now that we have this doubt at the federal level the developers no longer have the certainty and the permits are no longer worth the paper they're written on anymore," Ohleth said.

An Industry Being Tested

For Carly Lavender, offshore wind is an onshore job.

The industry has created manufacturing, engineering, construction, and testing jobs far from the ocean itself. At facilities like the Wind Technology Testing Center, workers are helping build a domestic supply chain that supporters hope can grow into a major American industry.

Yet just like the massive blades she helps test, Lavender is watching to see how much pressure the industry can withstand.