Climate Central

Climate Shift Index: Ocean

The Climate Shift Index: Ocean quantifies the influence of climate change on sea surface temperatures. It’s grounded in peer-reviewed attribution science and was launched by Climate Central in 2024.

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Looking for information about the influence of climate change on other types of weather? Head to the Climate Shift Index (air temperatures) or Climate Shift Index: Tropical Cyclones.

Ocean CSI map graphic
Click to explore the Ocean CSI map and visualize how climate change is influencing sea surface temperatures around the globe

How the Climate Shift Index: Ocean works

The Climate Shift Index: Ocean (Ocean CSI) is a system that computes the climate change fingerprint on daily ocean temperatures. More specifically, it indicates how human-caused climate change (from humans burning fossil fuels) has influenced the likelihood of daily sea surface temperatures occurring at nearly any location around the world’s oceans.

The Ocean CSI scale ranges from -1000 to +1000, where positive numbers indicate sea surface temperatures that are more likely due to climate change (negative scores indicate temperatures that are less likely). Zero indicates there is no robust climate change influence on the likelihood of the temperature. For example, a value of 800 means that climate change made the observed sea surface temperature at least 800 times more likely in today’s climate. 

Warming ocean temperatures impact people, weather, and ecosystems in many different ways. As a result, the Ocean CSI can help connect climate change-driven ocean warming to environmental consequences such as tropical cyclone (hurricane) intensities and rapid intensification, coral bleaching, and impacts on fisheries, wildlife migration patterns, ecosystem health, and biodiversity.

How to use the Ocean CSI

The Ocean CSI data is available for anyone to use, including but not limited to meteorologists, journalists, scientists, and policymakers. Here’s how you can see it: 

  1. Use the Ocean CSI map tool (csi.climatecentral.org/ocean) to visually identify climate fingerprints anywhere in the global ocean. 

  2. Download custom graphics directly from the map tool for TV, social media, presentations, reports, and more.

  3. Download a KML file from the map tool that you can add directly into a Max/Baron Lynx weather system. (Learn more here.)

In addition to the Ocean CSI data, the online tool also provides maps for sea surface temperatures and temperature anomalies, and tropical cyclone storm tracks that show the influence of climate change on tropical cyclone intensities.

How Climate Central uses the Ocean CSI

We use the Ocean CSI to analyze the climate change influence on ocean warming in relation to weather events and impacts. We’ve covered how these warm ocean waters impact marine heat waves, bomb cyclones, atmospheric rivers resulting in heavy rainfall and floods, and tropical storms including cyclones and hurricanes

Additionally, our tropical cyclone attribution system, launched in 2025, uses the Ocean CSI and new peer-reviewed methods to quantify how much stronger a storm’s winds became due to climate change-warmed waters.

How the science works

The methods underpinning the Ocean CSI are detailed in “Attributing daily ocean temperatures to anthropogenic climate change” (Giguere et al., May 2024).