Report•March 3, 2026
Monthly Attribution Overview – February 2026
An analysis of how climate change boosted United States temperatures in February 2026
Using Climate Central’s Climate Shift Index (CSI) tool to measure the impact of climate change on daily temperatures across the United States, as well as NOAA’s Applied Climate Information System (ACIS) to find daily temperature information, we have compiled a high-level overview of how climate change has affected temperature trends in February in cities across the United States. (Dataset downloadable as Excel workbook here.)
1. High-Level Findings
Overall, the U.S. saw above-average temperatures in February, with an average anomaly — or difference from normal — of 2.1°F across 192 cities.
While the eastern U.S. faced unseasonably cold weather, record warmth across the central and western regions drove the overall national trend.
Thirty-three cities experienced one of their top five warmest February temperatures on record. On average, stations have data dating back to 1893.
Elevated Climate Shift Index values were observed in seven out of 10 U.S. Climate Regions, including the Southwest, West, Northwest, Northern Rockies and Plains, South, Southeast, and Upper Midwest.
Although February 2026 was cooler than average for the eastern U.S., long-term February warming trends show that nearly all cities analyzed have warmed since 1970, consistent with findings from Climate Central’s 2025 Winter Package.
Figure 1. Threaded ACIS temperature anomalies (differences from normal) for February 2026 relative to the 1991-2020 normal. Analysis based on ACIS data.
Figure 2. Days with a CSI of 2 or higher for February 2026 for ACIS threaded stations. Analysis based on ERA5 data.
2. Local Temperature Anomaly Analysis
The average temperature anomaly — or difference from normal — across the 192 cities analyzed was 2.1°F.
February temperatures skewed warmer: 125 cities recorded warmer-than-average conditions, while 67 cities experienced cooler-than-average temperatures.
Temperatures were elevated across many areas in the Southwest, West, Northwest, Northern Rockies and Plains, South, Southeast, and Upper Midwest. The Northern Rockies and Plains stood out as the warmest region, with average temperatures more than 8.4°F above normal.
Forty-eight cities experienced their top 10 hottest Februarys on record.
The most unusually warm city in February was Rapid City, South Dakota, which was 10.9°F warmer than usual.
In contrast, cities in the Southeast and Northeast experienced cooler-than-average temperatures. The most unusually cold region was the Northeast, with average temperature anomalies of -3.4°F.
Of the 192 locations analyzed, most — 173 — showed long-term warming trends for February, indicating that these cities have warmed on average since 1970.
Albany, Georgia, experienced the greatest increase, with average February temperatures 8.4°F warmer than in 1970.
Table 1. ACIS stations with the highest February 2026 temperature anomaly.
City | State | Temperature anomaly or difference from normal (°F) | Average temperature (°F) | Warming since 1970 (°F) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Rapid City | SD | 10.9 | 36.7 | -3.0 |
Oklahoma City | OK | 10.0 | 52.3 | 2.1 |
Sioux City | IA | 9.8 | 34.3 | 0.6 |
Bismarck | ND | 9.7 | 27.2 | 0.4 |
Wichita Falls | TX | 9.7 | 56.0 | 2.1 |
Mitchell | SD | 9.3 | 32.4 | 1.2 |
Kansas City | MO | 9.1 | 42.8 | 2.5 |
Billings | MT | 8.9 | 38.1 | -2.8 |
Denver | CO | 8.9 | 41.4 | -3.5 |
Sioux Falls | SD | 8.9 | 31.2 | 1.5 |
Table 2. ACIS stations with the fastest warming February since 1970.
City | State | Warming since 1970 (°F) | Temperature anomaly or difference from normal (°F) | Average temperature (°F) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Albany | GA | 8.4 | 0.7 | 54.6 |
Chattanooga | TN | 8.0 | 1.9 | 47.4 |
Atlanta | GA | 7.5 | 2.8 | 51.2 |
New Orleans | LA | 7.3 | 2.5 | 60.4 |
Tampa | FL | 6.7 | -3.5 | 61.1 |
Raleigh | NC | 6.6 | -0.4 | 31.8 |
Wheeling | WV | 6.5 | -0.4 | 31.8 |
Burlington | VT | 6.5 | -4.0 | 18.6 |
Montgomery | AL | 6.4 | 1.1 | 53.7 |
Tallahassee | FL | 6.3 | 0.7 | 56.3 |
3. Local Climate Shift Index Analysis
San Juan, Puerto Rico, had 16 days at CSI 5 in February, indicating that temperatures on those days were made at least five times more likely because of climate change.
Twelve cities across the country experienced at least a week's worth of days at or above a CSI of 2.
On average, cities in the Southwest experienced the highest number of days — 15 — with a CSI of 2 or above.
Table 3. ACIS stations with the highest number of days at or above a CSI 2 during February 2026.
City | State | Days at CSI 2 or higher | Days at CSI 5 | Average temperature (°F) | Temperature anomaly or difference from normal (°F) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Juan | PR | 23 | 16 | 78.0 | 0.2 |
Tucson | AZ | 20 | 4 | 62.6 | 6.4 |
Flagstaff | AZ | 19 | 4 | 37.1 | 4.6 |
Phoenix | AZ | 19 | 3 | 67.4 | 7.5 |
Grand Junction | CO | 17 | 1 | 40.9 | 6.0 |
Salt Lake City | UT | 16 | 6 | 43.0 | 6.0 |
Los Angeles | CA | 15 | 4 | 61.9 | 3.0 |
Santa Maria | CA | 15 | 5 | 56.4 | 2.7 |
Las Vegas | NV | 14 | 2 | 58.5 | 5.1 |
Bakersfield | CA | 14 | 2 | 55.4 | 1.8 |
San Francisco | CA | 14 | 3 | 55.2 | 1.8 |
METHODOLOGY
Calculating the Climate Shift Index
All Climate Shift Index (CSI) levels reported in this brief are based on daily average temperatures and ERA5 data. See the frequently asked questions for details on computing the Climate Shift Index, including a summary of the multi-model approach described in Gilford et al. (2022).
City Analysis
We analyzed 192 Applied Climate Information System (ACIS) stations associated with U.S. cities. For each city, we found the CSI time series from the nearest 0.25° grid cell. We calculated the number of days at CSI levels 2, 3, 4, and 5. We used ACIS data to find the average monthly temperatures, temperature anomalies (compared to 1991-2020 normals), and precipitation information, and to derive average monthly warming trends for each city.
Regions
Regions are defined by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information climate regions.