Super Typhoon Bavi intensifies over climate-fueled ocean heat as marine heat waves grip every major ocean basin

July 7, 2026

Super Typhoon Bavi underwent extreme rapid intensification over exceptionally warm waters in the Pacific Ocean that were made up to 80 times more likely by climate change. The storm is expected to pass over ocean waters made 10 to 40 times more likely by climate change before impacting parts of Taiwan this weekend (July 10 -11) with winds as high as 290 kmh (130 mph). 

The Pacific is experiencing a historic marine heat wave — but it’s far from alone. Every major ocean basin across the globe is currently experiencing unusually warm sea surface temperatures driven by climate change. 

Pacific Ocean

• The Pacific continues to host the world’s largest marine heat wave, now covering 58 million square kilometers — about 16% of Earth's oceans — an area larger than North and South America combined. A developing El Niño could be contributing additional warming in the eastern Pacific.

• Climate change is driving the vast majority of this event: 85% of the marine heat wave area would not have occurred without human-caused warming.

• Since January, approximately 91% of the Pacific has experienced marine heat wave conditions, with the most persistent hotspots in the North Pacific remaining in marine heat wave conditions for more than 180 consecutive days.

Atlantic Ocean

• Marine heat waves are less widespread across the Atlantic than in the Pacific or Mediterranean, with 18.8% of the basin currently affected. However, tropical sea surface temperatures remain in the upper 70s to upper 80s°F (24-32°C). Broad areas of the Atlantic are 2–5°F (1–3°C ) above normal compared to the 1991-2020 climatology.

• Climate change is driving nearly all of the existing marine heat wave area: 93.8% would not have occurred without human-caused warming.

Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

• Marine heat waves continue to dominate the Gulf of Mexico and the northwestern region of the Caribbean, with 46.4% of the region currently experiencing marine heat wave conditions. Of that area, 44.7% is attributable to climate change. 

• Sea surface temperatures are broadly in the 80s °F (27°C), with the hottest waters approaching 90°F (32°C) around Florida.

Mediterranean

• The Mediterranean marine heat wave has intensified rapidly following repeated heat domes over Europe, with 78.6% of the basin now experiencing marine heat wave conditions. 

• Sea surface temperatures have climbed into the upper 70s to low 80s °F (24-28°C), while large areas of the western Mediterranean are running 5–9°F (3–5°C) above normal. 

• Climate change is driving nearly all of the event: 97.9% of the current marine heat wave area would not have occurred without human-caused warming.

Indian Ocean

• Marine heat wave areas are more scattered in the Indian Ocean, affecting 27% of the basin. The most intense marine heat waves are concentrated in the southern Indian Ocean, and 82% of the current marine heat wave area would not have occurred without human-caused climate change.

Arctic Ocean

• Across the Arctic Ocean basin, some areas of marine heat waves are found close to the sea-ice edge, affecting about 19% of the basin. Sea surface temperatures are running up to 9°F (5°C) above average in parts of the Barents, Kara, Greenland, and Norwegian seas. 

• Climate change is driving 90% of the current marine heat wave area, meaning the vast majority would not have occurred without human-caused climate change.

For more information on the Climate Shift Index: Ocean, refer to the FAQs.