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Climate change in Phoenix, Arizona
Climate change is affecting locations like Phoenix in a variety of ways. In fall, these impacts include increased cooling demand, more unusually warm days, and more frequent fire weather.
Explore these pages to learn how people in Phoenix are at risk in a warming world.
Since 1970, average annual temperatures in Phoenix have gotten 4.8°F warmer, reflecting an overall warming trend.
Warming puts people and ecosystems at risk from more frequent and intense extreme weather.
Overall, the contiguous U.S. is about 2.8°F warmer today than in 1970, based on average temperatures.
Data source: NOAA ACIS
Since 1970, Phoenix's annual precipitation has decreased by 2.5 inches.
Climate change is supercharging the water cycle and bringing heavier precipitation extremes across the U.S.
For every 1°F of warming, the air can hold 4% more moisture, increasing the chances of heavier downpours that contribute to flash flooding hazards.
Data source: NOAA ACIS
As of October 9, 2026, Phoenix has experienced 149 days this year with temperatures made twice as likely by climate change.
This is according to the Climate Shift Index (CSI), which quantifies the influence of human-caused climate change on daily average temperatures. Temperatures on these days had a CSI level 2 or higher, which indicates local temperatures were at least two times more likely due to climate change.
The CSI ranges from -5 to +5. Positive levels indicate temperatures made more likely due to climate change (while negative scores indicate conditions made less likely).
Data source: Climate Shift Index
Phoenix's climate threats in include:
Phoenix has experienced 28 more extremely hot days (with temperatures above 87.9°F) since 1970.
More frequent and intense extreme heat — the deadliest type of weather in the U.S. — is a direct result of a warming planet.
Extremely hot days are defined as days with maximum temperatures hotter than 95% of local temperatures from 1991-2020.
Data source: NOAA ACIS
Phoenix has experienced 49 more fire weather days since 1973.
Climate change is causing more frequent fire weather — a combination of hot, dry, windy conditions that prime the landscape for wildfires to ignite and spread
Wildfire seasons are lengthening and intensifying, particularly in the western U.S.
Source: NOAA Local Climatological Data
About 90% of Arizona is currently in drought or abnormally dry.
Rising temperatures are worsening the risk of drought in parts of the U.S.
Droughts can lead to crop failure or pasture losses, impact water supplies, affect public health, degrade ecosystems, and increase the amount of fuel for wildfires by drying grasses and forests.
The map shows the percentage of land area that is abnormally dry (category D0) or in drought (categories D1-4). This is according to the U.S. Drought Monitor's drought classification scale.
Data source: U.S. Drought Monitor
Since 1970, average fall temperatures in Phoenix have gotten 5.8°F warmer, reflecting an overall warming trend.
Fall warming means that risky heat, fire weather, and allergies linger later into the year.
Data source: NOAA ACIS
Explore some ways climate change is affecting Phoenix in fall
Higher cooling demand for schools
Hotter summers and longer warm seasons make cooling schools a growing challenge.
Key concepts:
- Hotter summers and longer warm seasons make cooling schools a growing challenge.
- Cooling is essential for student and staff health and safety.
- Since 1970, cooling demand during back-to-school season rose in 95% of U.S. locations analyzed.
- Rising demand means schools face costly upgrades to keep classrooms safe and comfortable.
More warm fall days
Fall (September-November) has warmed nationwide since 1970.
Key concepts:
- Fall (September - November) has warmed nationwide since 1970.
- Warming is nationwide, strongest in the Southwest.
- Hotter falls extend risks from heat, wildfire, allergies, and more.
More fire weather
Wildfire seasons are lengthening and intensifying.
Key concepts:
- Climate Central analyzed U.S. fire weather (hot, dry, windy conditions) from 1973–2024.
- Wildfire seasons are lengthening and intensifying, especially in the West.
- Fire weather is rising most in spring nationwide
Worsening drought
Warmer, thirstier air worsens drought
Key concepts:
- Heat-trapping pollution is warming the planet and changing the dynamics of drought — and its effects on water security, food supplies, wildfire, and ecosystems.
- Since the early 20th century, the western U.S. has become drier and the eastern U.S. has become wetter.
- As temperatures rise, the atmosphere gets thirstier and pulls more water from streams, soils, and plants — causing or worsening drought and fueling wildfire risk.
- Emerging research shows that, in our warming climate, the atmosphere’s growing demand for water is an increasingly important cause of drought in the western U.S. and around the globe.
More dangerous heat
Climate change is driving hotter, longer, and more frequent extreme heat.
Key concepts:
- Climate change is driving hotter, longer, and more frequent extreme heat — the deadliest U.S. weather hazard.
- Heat combined with humidity multiplies health risks.
- Rising humidity slows sweat evaporation, straining the body’s cooling system and causing dangerous heat stress.
Impacts to food prices
Extreme events fueled by climate change can damage crops, reduce yields, and disrupt supply chains.
Key concepts:
- Food and climate change are closely linked. Food systems account for about one-quarter of all heat-trapping pollution.
- Meanwhile, extreme events fueled by climate change can damage crops, reduce yields, and disrupt supply chains — all of which can drive food prices higher.
- The availability, quality, and affordability of food reflect a complex set of climatic and socioeconomic factors. Emerging research is providing insight into the role of climate change.
More graphics about Phoenix and climate change
Browse climate-related graphics for all seasons localized for Phoenix, available for download and use consistent with our Terms of use.
