Chocolate Crunch: Bittersweet News For Chocolate Lovers

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BY BEN TRACY, SENIOR CLIMATE CORRESPONDENT ON ASSIGNMENT FOR CLIMATE CENTRAL

With Valentine’s Day around the corner, millions of us will be buying something sweet. In fact, Americans buy 36 million heart-shaped boxes of chocolate every year. But this season, you might notice some sticker shock. Extreme weather is beginning to impact the supply of chocolate’s most vital ingredient, and the consequences are being felt from the equator to the candy aisle.

The Chocolate Factory 

At San Francisco’s Dandelion Chocolate they transform raw cocoa beans into gourmet chocolate bars right before your eyes.

"This is my dream to be surrounded by dark chocolate all day long," joked Climate Central’s Ben Tracy, while touring the facility. Greg D’Alesandre, Dandelion’s "bean counter" and Chief Chocolate Educator, laughed. "You know what? It doesn’t get old either."

D’Alesandre’s job is to travel the world sourcing cocoa beans, and he’s seen firsthand how the industry is shifting. "My job is to go around the world and source cocoa beans," he says, "because there’s so much people don’t know about chocolate."

From "Sweet Spot" to "Climate Chaos"

It all begins with cocoa beans grown in pods on trees in countries near the equator. Historically, the tropics were the "sweet spot" of stable temperatures and regular rainfall.

According to Climate Central data, that consistent climate has changed. D’Alesandre suggests a new name for the current state of agriculture: "Climate Chaos is probably a better term for what’s going on in the world."

The primary driver is the increasing frequency of weather extremes. When asked if the extremes are getting more intense, D’Alesandre was blunt: "absolutely... extreme flooding and extreme drought."

The Heat Factor

Hotter temperatures are severely hurting production. New data shows that climate change has added about 40 additional days of 90-plus degree heat in places like Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana—regions that supply more than half the world’s cocoa.

You can view the full breakdown of how heat is hurting chocolate here.

The results of this heat have been devastating for the market. In 2024, dwindling supply sent cocoa prices up nearly 400% creating sticker shock in the chocolate aisle at the grocery store. "We’ve raised our prices. Just about everybody’s raised their prices," D’Alesandre says.

The “Cocoa Brewery”

As the climate becomes less reliable, some entrepreneurs are looking to science for a solution. At California Cultured, CEO Alan Perlstein is aiming to grow cocoa faster and cheaper—all in a lab.

"This is our flask of mature baby cocoa cells," Perlstein says, pointing to a cell incubator. He describes the facility as a "cocoa brewery."

The process involves taking a few beans and "tricking" the cells into multiplying inside beakers and giant tanks. Even though they are in a sterile lab, Perlstein notes that "yeah they still think they’re in the middle of a cocoa pod."

The Future of the Bean

California Cultured plans to partner with major chocolate makers, including Meiji—the largest in Japan. This technology could potentially produce cocoa in just weeks, compared to the six months it takes to grow it on a tree.

While the "brewery" offers a safety net, traditionalists like D’Alesandre still prefer the real thing. But he does worry that natural chocolate could one day become an expensive luxury item rather than a common treat.