Climate MattersNovember 2, 2022

Global Climate Conference, Local Impacts

Local Temperature Projections - Global COP26, Local Impacts

KEY CONCEPTS

  • COP27, the U.N. climate conference starting November 6, aims to close the gap between global climate goals and climate action. 

  • Climate Central’s tools show why COP27 outcomes matter locally—around the U.S. and the world. 

  • Analysis and graphics for 246 U.S. locations show that U.S. warming by 2100 could range from 1.8 to 9°F, depending on how quickly global emissions are cut, a key topic on the COP27 agenda. 

  • The new Global Climate Shift Index (CSI-Global) tool reveals the daily influence of climate change on temperatures experienced by billions of people around the world—including in 1,000+ cities

  • Picturing Our Future visualizes how sea level rise resulting from our near-term choices, including at COP27, could transform hundreds of iconic coastal locations around the world. 

  • Read on for more analysis and resources to understand and cover COP27 for local audiences.

Interviews during COP27

Climate Central staff will be at COP27 and available for interviews. Please contact pgirard@climatecentral.org to set up an interview for the available time:

  • Thursday, November 10 from 2-4 PM E.E.T. (7-9 AM ET)

2100 Temp Projections Map - Global COP26, Local Impacts
Click for downloadable graphic: 2100 Temp Projections Map

COP27 aims for ambitious, equitable global climate action

Climate change continues to affect lives across the U.S. and around the globe—through more frequent billion-dollar disasters, rising health risks, daily temperatures boosted by carbon pollution, and other impacts

The climate impacts we’re feeling today reflect 1.1°C (2.0°F) of global warming. These impacts worsen with every bit of additional warming—which is why nearly 200 countries agreed in 2015 to keep global warming well below 2°C (3.6°F) with an aspirational limit of 1.5°C.

But according to the latest UN Emissions Gap report, we’re currently on track for 2.4-2.6°C of warming by the end of the century, leaving a glaring gap between aspirational global targets and our current commitments to global action. 

At COP27, the 27th United Nations climate conference, negotiators will work to narrow this gap through discussions about ambitious and equitable global action on climate change mitigation, adaptation, and finance. COP27, the 27th Conference of the Parties (COP) of the UNFCCC since 1995, will be held in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt from November 6-18. 

The planetary scale of the COP27 agenda often obscures the relevance of this global climate conference for local audiences. Climate Central’s data-driven tools highlight these links for local audiences around the U.S. and the world. 

Local Temperature Projections - Global COP26, Local Impacts
Click for downloadable graphic: Local Temperature Projections

Data-driven tools to explore the local relevance of COP27:

1. Global decisions today, local warming for decades

Whether or not COP27 succeeds at narrowing the gap between current emissions and the cuts needed to stay within the globally agreed 2°C warming limit has direct relevance for local communities across the U.S.

Climate Central analysis compared these two scenarios (see methodology) and found they could lead to a two- to three-fold difference in U.S. warming over this century. 

  • In a scenario with rapid emissions cuts (SSP1-2.6), projected U.S. warming ranges from 1°C to 2.5°C (1.8 to 4.5°F) relative to the 1991-2020 baseline by 2050 before stabilizing through 2100. 

  • In a scenario where emissions are very high (SSP3-7.0), projected warming ranges from 3°C to 5°C (5.4 to 9°F) by 2100.

  • All 246 U.S. locations warm under both emissions scenarios, with the strongest warming in the Midwest and parts of New England. 

2. Daily fingerprints of climate change in 1,000+ global cities

COP27 isn’t only about our warming future. It’s also about our warming present. Climate Central’s new Global Climate Shift Index (CSI-Global) tool shows that hundreds of millions of people around the world are already feeling the effects of climate change every day.

  • Use the new CSI-Global web tool and sign up for email alerts during COP27 to track the influence of climate change on temperatures in 1,000+ cities across the world, every day. 

  • Analysis using CSI-Global shows that 96% of the global population experienced daily temperatures influenced by climate change during the 12 months ending in September 2022. 

  • Over the same 365 day period, CSI-Global shows that people living near the equator and on small islands experienced the strongest daily influence of human-caused climate change.

3. Picturing Our Future

Climate and energy choices made during COP27 and throughout this decade will influence how high sea levels rise for hundreds of years. 

  • Climate Central’s Picturing Our Future tool visualizes how sea level rise could transform 190 iconic locations around the world if we exceed 1.5°C (2.7°F) of warming. 

  • Picturing Our Future features a curated selection of visualizations exploring sea level rise risks in locations across Africa, including in the COP27 host country of Egypt.

More resources for reporting on COP27:

UN Resources:

Resources for media:

POTENTIAL LOCAL STORY ANGLES

Climate Central’s tools can be combined to explore current and future climate impacts in the same location. For example: 

  • Lagos, Nigeria was the world’s largest hotspot of human exposure to daily temperatures altered by climate change during a recent 12-month period, according to CSI-Global.

  • Lagos also faces extreme future risks from sea level rise, according to Picturing Our Future.

More Climate Central analysis to localize this global climate summit:

LOCAL EXPERTS 

The SciLine service, 500 Women Scientists or the press offices of local universities may be able to connect you with local scientists who have expertise on climate science and policy. The American Association of State Climatologists is a professional scientific organization composed of all state climatologists

NATIONAL EXPERTS 

The Global South Climate Database is a new publicly available, searchable database of scientists and experts in the fields of climate science, policy and energy.

Paulina Jaramillo, PhD
Professor, Engineering and Public Policy
Carnegie Mellon University
Contact: paulina@cmu.edu
Related expertise: climate change mitigation, energy sector transitions
*Available for interviews in English and Spanish

Erin Coughlan de Perez, PhD
Research Director and Dignitas Professor
Tufts University
Contact: erin.coughlan@tufts.edu
Related expertise: Climate change adaptation, disaster risk management
*Available for interviews in English and Spanish 

Alison Cinnamond
Strategic Communications and Media Manager
World Resources Institute
Contact: Alison.Cinnamond@wri.org
Contact Alison to connect with WRI experts on climate policy and COP27

Karen Florini, J.D.
Vice President for Programs, Climate Central
Former Deputy Special Envoy for Climate Change, U.S. State Department
Contact: kflorini@climatecentral.org

Bernadette Woods Placky
Chief Meteorologist and Climate Matters Program Director
Climate Central
Contact: bplacky@climatecentral.org

Andrew Pershing, PhD
Director of Climate Science
Climate Central
Contact: apershing@climatecentral.org

METHODOLOGY

For the detailed methodology behind each of Climate Central’s data-driven analyses and tools mentioned above please see: