Climate change in Tucson, Arizona

Climate change is affecting locations like Tucson in a variety of ways. In summer, these impacts include increased health risks from extreme heat, more frequent fire weather, and hotter summers.

Explore these pages to learn how people in Tucson are at risk in a warming world.

Since 1970, average annual temperatures in Tucson have gotten 5.0°F warmer, reflecting an overall warming trend.

Warming puts people and ecosystems at risk from more frequent and intense extreme weather.
Overall, the contiguous U.S. is about 2.8°F warmer today than in 1970, based on average temperatures.
Data source: NOAA ACIS

Since 1970, Tucson's annual precipitation has decreased by 2.7 inches.

Climate change is supercharging the water cycle and bringing heavier precipitation extremes across the U.S.
For every 1°F of warming, the air can hold 4% more moisture, increasing the chances of heavier downpours that contribute to flash flooding hazards.
Data source: NOAA ACIS

As of October 9, 2026, Tucson has experienced 141 days this year with temperatures made twice as likely by climate change.

This is according to the Climate Shift Index (CSI), which quantifies the influence of human-caused climate change on daily average temperatures. Temperatures on these days had a CSI level 2 or higher, which indicates local temperatures were at least two times more likely due to climate change.
The CSI ranges from -5 to +5. Positive levels indicate temperatures made more likely due to climate change (while negative scores indicate conditions made less likely).
Data source: Climate Shift Index

Tucson's climate threats in include:

Tucson has experienced 57 more fire weather days since 1973.

Climate change is causing more frequent fire weather — a combination of hot, dry, windy conditions that prime the landscape for wildfires to ignite and spread
Wildfire seasons are lengthening and intensifying, particularly in the western U.S.
Source: NOAA Local Climatological Data

Tucson has experienced 27 more extremely hot days (with temperatures above 82.325°F) since 1970.

More frequent and intense extreme heat — the deadliest type of weather in the U.S. — is a direct result of a warming planet.
Extremely hot days are defined as days with maximum temperatures hotter than 95% of local temperatures from 1991-2020.
Data source: NOAA ACIS

About 90% of Arizona is currently in drought or abnormally dry.

Rising temperatures are worsening the risk of drought in parts of the U.S.
Droughts can lead to crop failure or pasture losses, impact water supplies, affect public health, degrade ecosystems, and increase the amount of fuel for wildfires by drying grasses and forests.
The map shows the percentage of land area that is abnormally dry (category D0) or in drought (categories D1-4). This is according to the U.S. Drought Monitor's drought classification scale.
Data source: U.S. Drought Monitor

Explore some ways climate change is affecting Tucson in summer

More risks for pregnancy

Climate change has doubled pregnancy heat-risk days worldwide (2020-2024).

Key concepts:

Climate change has doubled pregnancy heat-risk days (extremely hot days associated with increased risk of preterm birth) worldwide (2020–2024).
All U.S. states and D.C. now see at least a week more of pregnancy heat-risk days each year.
Climate change-related extreme weather events also put pregnant people at risk from air pollution, flooding, infrastructure damages, and prenatal stress.

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More record heat

Daily heat records have outnumbered daily cold records in recent years.

Key concepts:

Climate Central analyzed daily temperature records for each calendar day over the entire period of record at 247 U.S. locations.
Most local U.S. observations align with the global trend: more daily heat records and fewer daily cold records.
This growing gap between historic heat and historic cold over the past 50 years is an indicator of climate change.

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More fire weather

Wildfire seasons are lengthening and intensifying.

Key concepts:

Climate Central analyzed U.S. fire weather (hot, dry, windy conditions) from 1973–2024.
Wildfire seasons are lengthening and intensifying, especially in the West.
Fire weather is rising most in spring nationwide

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Hotter summers

Hotter summers bring more dangerous heat, higher energy bills, and worse wildfire.

Key concepts:

Summers have warmed since 1970 in 97% of 243 U.S. cities analyzed.

Human-caused climate change is the leading driver of summer warming trends in 221 (91%) of these cities.

Nearly every city analyzed now experiences more hotter-than-normal summer days than during the early 1970s — 22 more such days, on average.

Hotter summers can amplify urban heat and lead to heat-related illness, higher energy bills, and worse wildfire risk.

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Climate change in Tucson, Arizona

Tucson's climate threats in summer include:

Explore some ways climate change is affecting Tucson in summer

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Tucson's climate threats in include: