Climate change in Memphis, Tennessee

Climate change is affecting locations like Memphis in a variety of ways. In fall, these impacts include more extreme rainfall, changes to fall foliage, and fewer freezing nights.

Explore these pages to learn how people in Memphis are at risk in a warming world.

Since 1970, average annual temperatures in Memphis have gotten 2.4°F warmer, reflecting an overall warming trend.

Warming puts people and ecosystems at risk from more frequent and intense extreme weather.
Overall, the contiguous U.S. is about 2.8°F warmer today than in 1970, based on average temperatures.
Data source: NOAA ACIS

Since 1970, Memphis' annual precipitation has increased by 1.9 inches.

Climate change is supercharging the water cycle and bringing heavier precipitation extremes across the U.S.
For every 1°F of warming, the air can hold 4% more moisture, increasing the chances of heavier downpours that contribute to flash flooding hazards.
Data source: NOAA ACIS

As of October 3, 2026, Memphis has experienced 56 days this year with temperatures made twice as likely by climate change.

This is according to the Climate Shift Index (CSI), which quantifies the influence of human-caused climate change on daily average temperatures. Temperatures on these days had a CSI level 2 or higher, which indicates local temperatures were at least two times more likely due to climate change.
The CSI ranges from -5 to +5. Positive levels indicate temperatures made more likely due to climate change (while negative scores indicate conditions made less likely).
Data source: Climate Shift Index

Memphis' climate threats in include:

Memphis has experienced a 1% change in hourly rainfall intensity since 1970.

As the climate has warmed over recent decades, the most extreme precipitation days have become more intense across the U.S.
This data uses the simple hourly rainfall intensity index, or the total annual rainfall amount divided by the total hours of rainfall each year (inches per hour). An increase indicates more rain is falling per hour. NOAA’s Rain Rate Visualizer videos show various hourly rainfall rates.
Data source: NOAA ACIS

Memphis has experienced 13 fewer days below freezing (32°F) since 1970.

As our planet warms, the coldest days of the year are also warming.
The cold season plays an important role in maintaining plant, animal, and insect life cycles. It also recharges snowpack that supplies freshwater and sustains snow and ice for winter recreation and the local economy.
Data source: NOAA ACIS

During the past 20 years, Tennessee experienced 51 more billion-dollar disasters from severe storms compared to the previous 20 years.

As the planet warms, extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense, resulting in devastating losses.
This data shows how the total number of severe storms with at least one billion dollars in damages has changed from 1980-1999 to 2005-2024.
Data source: NCEI U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters

Since 1970, average fall temperatures in Memphis have gotten 2.4°F warmer, reflecting an overall warming trend.

Fall warming means that risky heat, fire weather, and allergies linger later into the year.
Data source: NOAA ACIS

Explore some ways climate change is affecting Memphis in fall

Heavier downpours

Climate change is supercharging the water cycle, driving heavier rainfall and flood risk.

Key concepts:

Climate change is supercharging the water cycle, driving heavier rainfall and flood risk.
From 1958–2021, extreme precipitation days grew in every region, led by the Northeast (+60%) and Midwest (+45%).
Intensification will continue with future warming.
Short bursts of extreme rain threaten people, ecosystems, and infrastructure nationwide.

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Impacts to fall color

Conditions that trigger fall color are shifting with climate change.

Key concepts:

Foliage depends on temperature, day length, and rainfall — as well as other conditions including extreme weather events.
Cool fall nights can boost color, but they have warmed 2.7°F (1970–2023) in 212 U.S. locations.
Warmer falls can delay or shorten peak foliage.

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Fewer freezing nights

The coldest nights of the year are warming

Key concepts:

The coldest nights of the year are warming across the U.S.
91% of locations analyzed have fewer freezing nights since 1970.
This is part of a larger trend of especially rapid warming in cool regions and seasons.

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Changes in severe storms

Certain conditions favorable to thunderstorms and tornadoes are occurring more often

Key concepts:

Severe storms make up half of U.S. billion-dollar disasters since 1980.
Climate change is shifting storm conditions into new seasons and regions.

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Impacts to food prices

Extreme events fueled by climate change can damage crops, reduce yields, and disrupt supply chains.

Key concepts:

Food and climate change are closely linked. Food systems account for about one-quarter of all heat-trapping pollution.
Meanwhile, extreme events fueled by climate change can damage crops, reduce yields, and disrupt supply chains — all of which can drive food prices higher.
The availability, quality, and affordability of food reflect a complex set of climatic and socioeconomic factors. Emerging research is providing insight into the role of climate change.

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Climate change in Memphis, Tennessee

Memphis' climate threats in fall include:

Explore some ways climate change is affecting Memphis in fall

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Memphis' climate threats in include: