Climate change in Rapid City, South Dakota

Climate change is affecting locations like Rapid City in a variety of ways. In fall, these impacts include more unusually warm days, more frequent fire weather, and increased food prices.

Explore these pages to learn how people in Rapid City are at risk in a warming world.

Since 1970, average annual temperatures in Rapid City have gotten 1.3°F warmer, reflecting an overall warming trend.

Warming puts people and ecosystems at risk from more frequent and intense extreme weather.
Overall, the contiguous U.S. is about 2.8°F warmer today than in 1970, based on average temperatures.
Data source: NOAA ACIS

Since 1970, Rapid City's annual precipitation has increased by 2.1 inches.

Climate change is supercharging the water cycle and bringing heavier precipitation extremes across the U.S.
For every 1°F of warming, the air can hold 4% more moisture, increasing the chances of heavier downpours that contribute to flash flooding hazards.
Data source: NOAA ACIS

As of September 24, 2026, Rapid City has experienced 33 days this year with temperatures made twice as likely by climate change.

This is according to the Climate Shift Index (CSI), which quantifies the influence of human-caused climate change on daily average temperatures. Temperatures on these days had a CSI level 2 or higher, which indicates local temperatures were at least two times more likely due to climate change.
The CSI ranges from -5 to +5. Positive levels indicate temperatures made more likely due to climate change (while negative scores indicate conditions made less likely).
Data source: Climate Shift Index

Rapid City's climate threats in include:

Rapid City has experienced 9 more extremely hot days (with temperatures above 89.45°F) since 1970.

More frequent and intense extreme heat — the deadliest type of weather in the U.S. — is a direct result of a warming planet.
Extremely hot days are defined as days with maximum temperatures hotter than 95% of local temperatures from 1991-2020.
Data source: NOAA ACIS

Since 1970, average fall temperatures in Rapid City have gotten 2.7°F warmer, reflecting an overall warming trend.

Fall warming means that risky heat, fire weather, and allergies linger later into the year.
Fall is the fastest warming season in Rapid City since 1970.
Data source: NOAA ACIS

Rapid City has experienced 3 more fire weather days since 1973.

Climate change is causing more frequent fire weather — a combination of hot, dry, windy conditions that prime the landscape for wildfires to ignite and spread
Wildfire seasons are lengthening and intensifying, particularly in the western U.S.
Source: NOAA Local Climatological Data

About 85% of South Dakota is currently in drought or abnormally dry.

Rising temperatures are worsening the risk of drought in parts of the U.S.
Droughts can lead to crop failure or pasture losses, impact water supplies, affect public health, degrade ecosystems, and increase the amount of fuel for wildfires by drying grasses and forests.
The map shows the percentage of land area that is abnormally dry (category D0) or in drought (categories D1-4). This is according to the U.S. Drought Monitor's drought classification scale.
Data source: U.S. Drought Monitor

Explore some ways climate change is affecting Rapid City in fall

More warm fall days

Fall (September-November) has warmed nationwide since 1970.

Key concepts:

Fall (September - November) has warmed nationwide since 1970.
Warming is nationwide, strongest in the Southwest.
Hotter falls extend risks from heat, wildfire, allergies, and more.

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More fire weather

Wildfire seasons are lengthening and intensifying.

Key concepts:

Climate Central analyzed U.S. fire weather (hot, dry, windy conditions) from 1973–2024.
Wildfire seasons are lengthening and intensifying, especially in the West.
Fire weather is rising most in spring nationwide

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Impacts to food prices

Extreme events fueled by climate change can damage crops, reduce yields, and disrupt supply chains.

Key concepts:

Food and climate change are closely linked. Food systems account for about one-quarter of all heat-trapping pollution.
Meanwhile, extreme events fueled by climate change can damage crops, reduce yields, and disrupt supply chains — all of which can drive food prices higher.
The availability, quality, and affordability of food reflect a complex set of climatic and socioeconomic factors. Emerging research is providing insight into the role of climate change.

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Climate change in Rapid City, South Dakota

Rapid City's climate threats in fall include:

Explore some ways climate change is affecting Rapid City in fall

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Rapid City's climate threats in include: