The Climate Story for: Qatar
FIFA #55 | Elo #95
Group B
3 matches | 3 stadiums
Explore how heat could slow down performance for Qatar and how climate change is increasing the odds.
Matches
Qatar has completed its scheduled matches.
None of the group-stage matches that Qatar played had an above 50% likelihood of performance-impairing heat. Within their group, Qatar was the #3 team most at risk, with a 8% likelihood on average across their group-stage matches.
Potential routes
Paths to the final
Group B
See the potential road to victory for Qatar and the impact that heat may have on their prospects of winning. Group-stage match locations are fixed, and knockout match locations trace where Qatar could play as a group runner-up, third-place qualifier, or winner.
Actual routeQatar's path ended in the group stage.The completed group-stage matches are highlighted below. Knockout branches remain visible as pre-tournament possibilities.
Color by
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
Winner
Runner-up
Third*
* Third-place qualification depends on results; only one possible R32 destination is shown.
Shareable graphics
Share
Group-round heat risk for Qatar
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
Qatar
Group BFIFA #55 | Elo #95As of June 9, 2026
0 of 3 matches have above 50% odds of performance-impairing heat
- “Performance-impairing heat” is heat above 28°C (82.4°F) — a threshold associated with elite players running slower, less far, and less often. Source: Climate Shift Index and ERA5 reanalysis.
Tournament path heat risk
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
Possible tournament paths
Qatar
Group BFIFA #55 | Elo #95
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
0 to 9%10 to 24%25 to 49%50 to 74%75 to 89%90%+
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
Winner
Jun 13M8SF Bay Area
Jun 18M27Vancouver
Jun 24M52Seattle
Jul 2M85Vancouver
Jul 7M96Vancouver
Jul 11M100Kansas City
Jul 15M102Atlanta
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
Runner-up
Jun 13M8SF Bay Area
Jun 18M27Vancouver
Jun 24M52Seattle
Jun 28M73Los Angeles
Jul 4M90Houston
Jul 9M97Boston
Jul 14M101Dallas
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
Third*
Jun 13M8SF Bay Area
Jun 18M27Vancouver
Jun 24M52Seattle
Jul 1M81SF Bay Area
Jul 6M94Seattle
Jul 10M98Los Angeles
Jul 14M101Dallas
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
USA
MOR
ARG