The Climate Story for: Canada
FIFA #30 | Elo #25
Group B
3 matches | 2 stadiums
Explore how heat could slow down performance for Canada and how climate change is increasing the odds.
Matches
Canada has completed its scheduled matches in the current data view. The match cards below preserve the modeled likelihood of performance-impairing heat and climate change influence for each match.
None of the group-stage matches that Canada is playing have an above 50% likelihood of performance-impairing heat. Within their group, Canada is the #4 team most at risk, with a 4% likelihood on average across their group-stage matches.
Potential routes
Paths to the final
Group B
See the potential road to victory for Canada and the impact that heat may have on their prospects of winning. Group-stage match locations are fixed, and knockout match locations trace where Canada could play as a group runner-up, third-place qualifier, or winner.
If Canada makes it to the final, they will be playing in 2 matches with above 50% odds of performance-impacting heat. And 2 matches where climate change is increasing the odds by at least 10 percentage points.
Color by
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
Winner
Runner-up
Third*
* Third-place qualification depends on results; only one possible R32 destination is shown.
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Group-round heat risk for Canada
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
Canada
Group BFIFA #30 | Elo #25As of June 9, 2026
0 of 3 matches have above 50% odds of performance-impairing heat
- “Performance-impairing heat” is heat above 28°C (82.4°F) — a threshold associated with elite players running slower, less far, and less often. Source: Climate Shift Index and ERA5 reanalysis.
Tournament path heat risk
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
Possible tournament paths
Canada
Group BFIFA #30 | Elo #25
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
0 to 9%10 to 24%25 to 49%50 to 74%75 to 89%90%+
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
Winner
Jun 12M3Toronto
Jun 18M27Vancouver
Jun 24M51Vancouver
Jul 2M85Vancouver
Jul 7M96Vancouver
Jul 11M100Kansas City
Jul 15M102Atlanta
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
Runner-up
Jun 12M3Toronto
Jun 18M27Vancouver
Jun 24M51Vancouver
Jun 28M73Los Angeles
Jul 4M90Houston
Jul 9M97Boston
Jul 14M101Dallas
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
Third*
Jun 12M3Toronto
Jun 18M27Vancouver
Jun 24M51Vancouver
Jun 29M74Boston
Jul 4M89Philadelphia
Jul 9M97Boston
Jul 14M101Dallas
Jul 19M104NY/NJ