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Last forecast for this matchAs of June 19, 2026 at 2:00 PM ETForecast high was 23°C5°C above normal

Forecast high was .

This was 5°C above normal.

How is this different from the probability of performance-impairing heat?

Source: Climate Shift Index and NOAA GFS forecasts through 2026-06-19T18Z.

The Climate Story for:

Canada flagCanadavs.Qatar flagQatar

Group Stage · Group B

Thu, June 18, 20263:00 p.m.BC Place VancouverRoof + open air

Review the modeled heat risk for this match and how climate change affected the odds.

Data

1%Chance of performance-impairing heat0%From climate change

The June 18 match at BC Place Vancouver (Canada vs. Qatar) had a 1% chance of heat that can impair performance.

Those odds were 0 percentage points higher due to climate change.

The science explained

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World Cup 2026 & Climate Change

Canada flagCanada
Qatar flagQatar

June 18, 2026 • BC Place Vancouver

Group BRoof + open air
1%Chance of performance-impairing heat
0%From climate change
  • “Performance-impairing heat” is heat above 28°C (82.4°F) — a threshold associated with elite players running slower, less far, and less often. Source: Climate Shift Index and ERA5 reanalysis.

Canada flagCanada

Group B3 matches, 2 stadiums
Go to team page
Latest match:

Switzerland flagSWI—Canada flagCAN

3%Chance of performance-impairing heat+1%From climate change

Qatar flagQatar

Group B3 matches, 3 stadiums
Go to team page
Latest match:

Bosnia and Herzegovina flagBIH—Qatar flagQAT

6%Chance of performance-impairing heat+2%From climate change

Vancouver

Canada flagCanada

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Next match:

New Zealand flagNew Zealand—Belgium flagBelgium

3%Chance of performance-impairing heat+1%From climate change