This information hub from Climate Central explores how heat could slow down performance across every match, team, and stadium at the 2026 World Cup — and how climate change is increasing the odds.
Use the data to tell stories about heat and climate change throughout the tournament.
Climate Central created this information hub as part of a special series exploring how climate change is affecting the 2026 World Cup. The data in this tool, and our other resources in the series, are based on two analyses focused on match-by-match heat risks and heat trends at the host stadiums where teams and fans will gather.
The companion analysis, 2026 World Cup Stadiums: Extreme Heat Rising, contrasts extreme heat at each host stadium and shows how climate change has worsened extreme World Cup heat.
Each analysis includes visual assets (graphics and videos), key findings, a data file, and a detailed methodology.
How can heat slow down player performance?
Research on elite suggests that temperatures above can affect player performance — especially how fast, far, or frequently they run during a match. This heat can shape match strategy, slow the pace of play, and create a disadvantage for teams that rely on speed and repeated sprinting.
Ultimately, it could be harder for players to reach their peak performance during a match because of hotter temperatures.
Learn more details about how heat affects players from Dr. Oliver Gibson, Senior Lecturer in Exercise Physiology at Brunel University of London:
Heat stress significantly impairs performance by reducing high intensity running volumes, sprints, and total distance covered by players, particularly when temperatures are above and are combined with high humidity. Peak speeds are mostly preserved despite overall physical output declining, highlighting that conscious and subconscious decisions are made to avoid excess heat strain. Players compensate for the elevated physiological strain with more conservative play, improving pass success by prioritizing defensive play.
As body temperatures increase, the risk of heat illness becomes exacerbated with notable increases in cardiovascular strain and feelings of fatigue, lethargy, and lightheadedness. A high body temperature combined with symptoms like dizziness and confusion can be a warning sign that the player is at risk of a severe heat illness known as heat stroke.
What are the odds that impactful heat will occur during the tournament?
This analysis assessed the likelihood that temperatures will exceed the threshold during each of the 104 World Cup matches — we call this “performance-impairing heat.”
In our analysis, we used our Climate Shift Index system to compare odds in today's carbon-polluted world to a world without carbon pollution and identified how much climate change influenced those odds.
This hub shows the results for specific matches, teams, and stadiums. Here are the overall key findings:
Warming caused by climate change is boosting the odds of performance-impairing heat during most scheduled World Cup matches (97 of 104), by about 8 percentage points on average.
Nearly half of the World Cup matches (49) have at least a 50% likelihood of experiencing heat that can impair performance. In 26 of those matches, climate change is increasing the likelihood by at least 10 percentage points.
Among all matches, climate change boosts the odds of performance-impairing heat most during the June 26 match in Guadalajara, between Uruguay and Spain. The 70% chance of such heat during this match is 37 percentage points higher due to climate change.
We don't yet know which two teams will make it to the final match, scheduled for July 19 at New York New Jersey Stadium (MetLife Stadium). But we do know that whichever teams advance will face a 47% likelihood of performance-impairing heat — odds that are about 17 percentage points higher because of climate change.
Time of day: This analysis does not account for kickoff times. It’s based on the chances of exceeding a daily maximum temperature of — but the hottest time of the day may or may not coincide with the start time of a match.
Forecast temperatures: When we include forecast temperatures in this information hub, it represents expected actual daily high temperatures based on Global Forecast System (GFS) data.
Climate-controlled stadiums: The analysis is based on the likelihood of outdoor temperatures at the stadium location exceeding . Three stadiums are fully climate-controlled (Atlanta, Dallas, and Houston), easing the effects of heat and showing promising adaptation measures.
Probabilities vs. forecast data: Our analysis results represent the likelihood of performance-impairing heat based on climate models, and may differ from actual match-day conditions.
Probabilities vs. Climate Shift Index values: We’re showing the climate change influence on temperatures in two different ways: how it affects the modeled odds of performance-impairing heat (shown as a percentage point increase) and how it influences the likelihood of a forecast daily temperature (shown as a Climate Shift Index/CSI value, 2 to 5, indicating forecast temperatures made 2-5 times more likely due to climate change). These two numbers measure different things and won’t always move together. Odds of performance-impairing heat don’t reflect forecast daily temperatures.
Health risks for players: While this analysis does not model the health risks for players, other recent analyses have done just this. See World Weather Attribution’s recent report on humid heat and health risks to players during the 2026 World Cup.
Cooling types
Roof + open air
This stadium has a retractable or fixed roof and is not climate controlled.
Partial canopy
This stadium has a canopy covering at least part of the seating area, but not the playing field.
Open air
This stadium has no cooling system or significant shade structure.
Climate-controlled
This stadium is fully enclosed and climate-controlled.
Contact us
For questions about either analysis or to request an interview with a climate scientist, please email Abbie Veitch at aveitch@climatecentral.org.
Climate Central is an independent group of scientists and communicators who research and report the facts about our changing climate and how it affects people's lives. Climate Central is a policy-neutral 501(c)(3) nonprofit.
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