The Climate Story for: France
FIFA #1 | Elo #3
Group I
7 matches | 4 stadiums
Explore how heat could slow down performance for France and how climate change is increasing the odds.
Matches
France has completed its scheduled matches.
None of the group-stage matches that France played had an above 50% likelihood of performance-impairing heat. Within their group, France was the #1 team most at risk, with a 30% likelihood on average across their group-stage matches.
June 30 - Round of 32
July 4 - Round of 16
July 9 - Quarterfinals
Potential routes
Paths to the final
Group I
See the potential road to victory for France and the impact that heat may have on their prospects of winning. Group-stage match locations are fixed, and knockout match locations trace where France could play as a group runner-up, third-place qualifier, or winner.
If France makes it to the final, they will be playing in 2 matches with above 50% odds of performance-impacting heat. And 5 matches where climate change is increasing the odds by at least 10 percentage points.
Actual routeFrance's live path is highlighted.The actual path is highlighted below. Other possible branches remain visible for context.
Color by
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
WinnerActual route
Runner-up
Third*
* Third-place qualification depends on results; only one possible R32 destination is shown.
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Group-round heat risk for France
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
France
Group IFIFA #1 | Elo #3As of June 9, 2026
2 of 7 matches have above 50% odds of performance-impairing heat
- “Performance-impairing heat” is heat above 28°C (82.4°F) — a threshold associated with elite players running slower, less far, and less often. Source: Climate Shift Index and ERA5 reanalysis.
Tournament path heat risk
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
Possible tournament paths
France
Group IFIFA #1 | Elo #3
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
0 to 9%10 to 24%25 to 49%50 to 74%75 to 89%90%+
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
Winner
Jun 16M17NY/NJ
Jun 22M42Philadelphia
Jun 26M61Boston
Jun 30M77NY/NJ
Jul 4M89Philadelphia
Jul 9M97Boston
Jul 14M101Dallas
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
Runner-up
Jun 16M17NY/NJ
Jun 22M42Philadelphia
Jun 26M61Boston
Jun 30M78Dallas
Jul 5M91NY/NJ
Jul 11M99Miami
Jul 15M102Atlanta
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
Third*
Jun 16M17NY/NJ
Jun 22M42Philadelphia
Jun 26M61Boston
Jul 1M82Seattle
Jul 6M94Seattle
Jul 10M98Los Angeles
Jul 14M101Dallas
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
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