The Climate Story for: France
Group I
3 matches | 3 stadiums
Explore how heat could slow down performance for France and how climate change is increasing the odds.
Upcoming matches
France’s next scheduled match has a 20% likelihood of performance-impairing heat, which is 7 percentage points higher due to climate change.
None of the group-stage matches that France is playing have an above 50% likelihood of performance-impairing heat. Within their group, France is the 1st most at risk, with a 30% likelihood on average across their group-stage matches.
Potential routes
Paths to the final
See France's potential road to victory and the impact that heat may have on its prospects of winning. Group-stage match locations are fixed, and knockout match locations trace where France could play as a group runner-up, third-place qualifier, or winner.
Group I
If France makes it to the final, they will be playing in 2 matches with above 50% odds of performance-impacting heat. And 5 matches where climate change is increasing the odds by at least 10 percentage points.
Color by
Account for climate-controlled stadiums
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
Winner
Runner-up
Third*
* Third-place qualification depends on results; only one possible R32 destination is shown.
Shareable graphics
Share
France's group-round heat risk
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
France
Group IAs of June 9, 2026
0 of 3 matches have above 50% odds of performance-impairing heat
- “Performance-impairing heat” is heat above 28°C (82.4°F) — a threshold associated with elite players running slower, less far, and less often. Source: Climate Shift Index and ERA5 reanalysis.
Tournament path heat risk
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
Possible tournament paths
France
Group I
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
0 to 9%10 to 24%25 to 49%50 to 74%75 to 89%90%+
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
Winner
Jun 16M17NY/NJ
Jun 22M42Philadelphia
Jun 26M61Boston
Jun 30M77NY/NJ
Jul 4M89Philadelphia
Jul 9M97Boston
Jul 14M101Dallas
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
Runner-up
Jun 16M17NY/NJ
Jun 22M42Philadelphia
Jun 26M61Boston
Jun 30M78Dallas
Jul 5M91NY/NJ
Jul 11M99Miami
Jul 15M102Atlanta
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
Third*
Jun 16M17NY/NJ
Jun 22M42Philadelphia
Jun 26M61Boston
Jun 30M79Mexico City
Jul 5M92Mexico City
Jul 11M99Miami
Jul 15M102Atlanta
Jul 19M104NY/NJ