The Climate Story for: Norway
FIFA #31 | Elo #12
Group I
6 matches | 4 stadiums
Explore how heat could slow down performance for Norway and how climate change is increasing the odds.
Matches
Norway has completed its scheduled matches.
None of the group-stage matches that Norway played had an above 50% likelihood of performance-impairing heat. Within their group, Norway was the #3 team most at risk, with a 21% likelihood on average across their group-stage matches.
June 30 - Round of 32
July 5 - Round of 16
Potential routes
Paths to the final
Group I
See the potential road to victory for Norway and the impact that heat may have on their prospects of winning. Group-stage match locations are fixed, and knockout match locations trace where Norway could play as a group runner-up, third-place qualifier, or winner.
Actual routeNorway's path ended in the Quarterfinals.The actual path is highlighted below and stops at the last match in current results. Other possible branches remain visible for context.
Color by
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
Winner
Runner-upActual route
Actual last match
Third*
* Third-place qualification depends on results; only one possible R32 destination is shown.
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Group-round heat risk for Norway
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
Norway
Group IFIFA #31 | Elo #12As of June 9, 2026
2 of 6 matches have above 50% odds of performance-impairing heat
- “Performance-impairing heat” is heat above 28°C (82.4°F) — a threshold associated with elite players running slower, less far, and less often. Source: Climate Shift Index and ERA5 reanalysis.
Tournament path heat risk
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
Possible tournament paths
Norway
Group IFIFA #31 | Elo #12
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
0 to 9%10 to 24%25 to 49%50 to 74%75 to 89%90%+
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
Winner
Jun 16M18Boston
Jun 22M41NY/NJ
Jun 26M61Boston
Jun 30M77NY/NJ
Jul 4M89Philadelphia
Jul 9M97Boston
Jul 14M101Dallas
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
Runner-up
Jun 16M18Boston
Jun 22M41NY/NJ
Jun 26M61Boston
Jun 30M78Dallas
Jul 5M91NY/NJ
Jul 11M99Miami
Third*
Jun 16M18Boston
Jun 22M41NY/NJ
Jun 26M61Boston
Jul 1M82Seattle
Jul 6M94Seattle
Jul 10M98Los Angeles
Jul 14M101Dallas
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
SPA
BEL