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The Climate Story for:

Paraguay flagParaguayvs.France flagFrance

Round of 16

Sat, July 4, 20265:00 p.m. EDTPhiladelphia StadiumOpen air

Review the modeled heat risk for this match and how climate change affected the odds.

Data

63%Chance of performance-impairing heat+17%From climate change

The July 4 match at Philadelphia Stadium (Paraguay vs. France) had a 63% chance of heat that can impair performance.

Those odds were 17 percentage points higher due to climate change.

The science explained

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World Cup 2026 & Climate Change

Paraguay flagParaguay
France flagFrance

July 4, 2026 • Philadelphia Stadium

Round of 16Open air
63%Chance of performance-impairing heat
+17%From climate change
  • “Performance-impairing heat” is heat above 28°C (82.4°F) — a threshold associated with elite players running slower, less far, and less often. Source: Climate Shift Index and ERA5 reanalysis.

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Climate LocalExplore local climate impacts, data, and graphics for Philadelphia, PA.OpenPennsylvania disaster summaryReview billion-dollar weather and climate disasters affecting Pennsylvania.OpenClimate Shift IndexSee climate attribution for Philadelphia on 2026-07-15.OpenHumid HeatCheck dangerous humid heat for Philadelphia on 2026-07-15.Open

Paraguay flagParaguay

Group D5 matches, 4 stadiums
Go to team page
Latest match:

Paraguay flagPAR—France flagFRA

63%Chance of performance-impairing heat+17%From climate change

France flagFrance

Group I8 matches, 5 stadiums
Go to team page
Next match:

France flagFRA—To Be DeterminedLOS

98%Chance of performance-impairing heat+8%From climate change

Philadelphia

United States flagUnited States

Go to stadium page
Latest match:

Paraguay flagParaguay—France flagFrance

63%Chance of performance-impairing heat+17%From climate change