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Last forecast for this matchAs of June 20, 2026 at 2:00 PM ETForecast high was 21°C7°C below normal

Forecast high was .

This was 7°C below normal.

How is this different from the probability of performance-impairing heat?

Source: Climate Shift Index and NOAA GFS forecasts through 2026-06-20T18Z.

The Climate Story for:

France flagFrancevs.Iraq flagIraq

Group Stage · Group I

Mon, June 22, 20265:00 p.m.Philadelphia StadiumOpen air

Review the modeled heat risk for this match and how climate change affected the odds.

Data

43%Chance of performance-impairing heat+11%From climate change

The June 22 match at Philadelphia Stadium (France vs. Iraq) had a 43% chance of heat that can impair performance.

Those odds were 11 percentage points higher due to climate change.

The science explained

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World Cup 2026 & Climate Change

France flagFrance
Iraq flagIraq

June 22, 2026 • Philadelphia Stadium

Group IOpen air
43%Chance of performance-impairing heat
+11%From climate change
  • “Performance-impairing heat” is heat above 28°C (82.4°F) — a threshold associated with elite players running slower, less far, and less often. Source: Climate Shift Index and ERA5 reanalysis.

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France flagFrance

Group I3 matches, 3 stadiums
Go to team page
Next match:

Norway flagNOR—France flagFRA

29%Chance of performance-impairing heat+9%From climate change

Iraq flagIraq

Group I3 matches, 3 stadiums
Go to team page
Next match:

Senegal flagSEN—Iraq flagIRA

19%Chance of performance-impairing heat+6%From climate change

Philadelphia

United States flagUnited States

Go to stadium page
Next match:

Curaçao flagCuraçao—Ivory Coast flagIvory Coast

63%Chance of performance-impairing heat+17%From climate change