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The Climate Story for:

France flagFrancevs.Sweden flagSweden

Round of 32

Tue, June 30, 20265:00 p.m. EDTNew York New Jersey StadiumOpen air

Review the modeled heat risk for this match and how climate change affected the odds.

Data

36%Chance of performance-impairing heat+14%From climate change

The June 30 match at New York New Jersey Stadium (France vs. Sweden) had a 36% chance of heat that can impair performance.

Those odds were 14 percentage points higher due to climate change.

The science explained

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World Cup 2026 & Climate Change

France flagFrance
Sweden flagSweden

June 30, 2026 • New York New Jersey Stadium

Round of 32Open air
36%Chance of performance-impairing heat
+14%From climate change
  • “Performance-impairing heat” is heat above 28°C (82.4°F) — a threshold associated with elite players running slower, less far, and less often. Source: Climate Shift Index and ERA5 reanalysis.

Explore related data

Climate tools for New York/New Jersey

Climate LocalExplore local climate impacts, data, and graphics for New York, NY.OpenNew Jersey disaster summaryReview billion-dollar weather and climate disasters affecting New Jersey.OpenClimate Shift IndexSee climate attribution for New York City on 2026-07-15.OpenHumid HeatCheck dangerous humid heat for New York City on 2026-07-15.Open

France flagFrance

Group I8 matches, 5 stadiums
Go to team page
Next match:

France flagFRA—To Be DeterminedLOS

98%Chance of performance-impairing heat+8%From climate change

Sweden flagSweden

Group F4 matches, 4 stadiums
Go to team page
Latest match:

France flagFRA—Sweden flagSWE

36%Chance of performance-impairing heat+14%From climate change

New York/New Jersey

United States flagUnited States

Go to stadium page
Next match:

Spain flagSpain—To Be DeterminedWinner Match 102

47%Chance of performance-impairing heat+17%From climate change