Climate Matters
Snowfall Trends
Snow keeps our planet cooler, feeds water supplies, and underpins regional economies and cultures. Here’s how snow is changing across the U.S. with our warming climate.
Climate Matters•January 21, 2026
Milano Cortina 2026: Warming Winter Olympics
KEY FACTS
The 2026 Winter Olympics start on February 6 in Milan and Cortina d'Ampezzo, Italy. The Paralympic Winter Games will follow a month later.
In the 70 years since Cortina first held the Winter Games in 1956, February temperatures in the northern Italian town have warmed 6.4°F (3.6°C).
These warming trends have led to fewer freezes. Cortina d’Ampezzo now sees 41 (19%) fewer freezing days annually than when the Games were first held there in 1956.
Milan and Cortina aren’t alone. All of the other cities to host the Winter Olympics since 1950 have warmed since then — threatening the reliability, safety, and fairness of outdoor winter sports competitions.
The number of reliable host locations is dwindling as the planet warms. A recent study found that, out of 93 potential host sites, only 52 would have reliable conditions for the Winter Olympics in the 2050s.
Due to being held in March, the Paralympic Winter Games face even greater risks — with only 22 (out of 93) climate-reliable locations in the 2050s.
Download data
“I don’t think we’re going to see a Winter Olympic Games in Utah in 2034.” Click to download this ready-to-air video, The Giant "Snow Cooler": Storing Snow to Save the Ski Industry. This fully produced news story can be used by media outlets at no cost for broadcasts, streaming, and digital stories. Click here for other available packages. |
|---|
Winter Olympics in a warming world
The 2026 Winter Olympics kick off on February 6, followed by the Winter Paralympic Games on March 6. The Games will take place throughout Northern Italy, with most indoor events in Milan and most outdoor events centered around Cortina d'Ampezzo.
As the planet heats up, warmer winters threaten the reliability of the cold temperatures and abundant snow required for the Winter Olympics and other outdoor winter sports competitions.
Despite taking place in the high-altitude Italian Alps, centered around the town of Cortina, the 2026 Olympics will also require more than 3 million cubic yards of artificial snow.
With artificial snow becoming a regular part of winter sports, the challenge of ensuring adequate conditions highlights the central role that the weather plays in the Winter Olympics and Paralympics — especially for the reliability and safety of outdoor competitions.
Hotter host cities
Cortina d’Ampezzo first hosted the Winter Olympic Games in 1956. In the 70 years since, February temperatures there have warmed 6.4°F (3.6°C).
Rapid warming has pushed February average temperatures closer to the thawing point: 27.1°F during 2016-2025, compared with 19.3°F during 1956-1965.
Studies show that average February snow depth in Cortina has decreased with warming — by about 15 centimeters (6 inches) from 1971-2019.
February temperatures in Milan, which will host indoor ice sports including figure skating and ice hockey, warmed 5.8°F (3.2°C) over the same period.
The 2026 host cities aren’t alone. All of the cities to host the Winter Olympics since 1950 have warmed since then — by 4.8°F (2.7°C) on average, according to earlier analysis from Climate Central.
In the 50 years since the first Winter Paralympic Games was held in 1976, March temperatures in Cortina and Milan have warmed 4.6°F (2.5°C) and 3.9°F (2.1°C), respectively.
Fewer freezes — even in the Italian Alps
These warming trends have led to fewer freezes. During the decade following the 1956 Games, Cortina saw an average of 214 days when temperatures dipped below freezing each year.
That number dropped to 173 days with freezing temperatures during the last decade (2016-2025). That’s 41 (19%) fewer days annually than when the Games were first held in Cortina in 1956.
These warming trends can affect conditions during competitions. Without cold enough temperatures and sufficient snow on the ground, Olympic athletes may experience conditions like rain, wet snow, or low snow coverage.
Resistant and hard surfaces are required for elite competition to ensure fair and safe conditions for athletes. If surfaces cannot refreeze, the risk of injuries increases and athletes later in the start list are likely to experience less favorable conditions.
Fewer reliable Winter Olympics host cities
The future of the Winter Olympics — and the reliability, safety, and fairness of many outdoor winter sports competitions — is uncertain in a warming climate.
A 2024 study assessed how climate change could impact Winter Olympics and Paralympics conditions at 93 previous and potential future host locations. The study focused on two key conditions influencing the reliability of safe and fair outdoor snow sports competitions: the probability of minimum daily temperatures at or below freezing, and the probability of minimum acceptable snow depths (at least 30 centimeters deep).
Of the 93 potential host cities, 87 (or 94%) are currently rated as having reliable climate conditions for the Winter Olympics. But that count is set to decline sharply in the years ahead.
By the 2050s, only 52 (or 56%) of the 93 potential Winter Olympics host cities would have reliable climate conditions in a mid-range future warming scenario that assumes global pledged commitments to reduce carbon pollution are met (RCP4.5 and SSP2-4.5).
Dwindling prospects for the Paralympics
The same study found that the Winter Paralympic Games could face even higher climate risks. Since 1992, the Paralympic Games have been held approximately one month after the Olympic Games in the same location — typically in March, when temperatures are warmer and the probability of rain instead of snow is higher than in February.
Projected shorter Northern Hemisphere winters by 2100 could put outdoor competitions in March even closer to spring thaw, raising concerns over reliable, safe and fair conditions for athletes competing in the Winter Paralympic Games.
Of the 93 potential host cities, 49 (or 53%) of those sites are currently rated as having reliable conditions for the Winter Paralympic Games.
By the 2050s, only 22 (or 24%) of the 93 potential host cities for the Paralympic Winter Games will still have reliable conditions by the 2050s in a mid-range future warming scenario.
In a high-emissions scenario, the ability to hold the Paralympic Games in March is almost eliminated by the 2080s, when just four of the 93 potential hosts will have reliable climate conditions.
Competing with climate change: Snowboarding, skiing, bobsledding, and more
The first Winter Olympics was held in 1924. At that time, almost all events were held outdoors. But by the 1980s, sports like ice hockey, figure skating, speed skating, and curling were moved indoors to refrigerated ice rinks.
For some of the most popular events that have remained outdoors, continued warming raises difficulties for athletes in competing and preparing for the Olympics. Indeed, 94% of the elite athletes and coaches surveyed in a 2022 study were concerned that climate change will negatively impact the future of their sport.
Here are some ways that climate change is already affecting a few of the 16 official Winter Olympics sports:
Olympic snowboarding consists of some timed race events, as well as those like the halfpipe and slopestyle, where competitors are judged on the breadth, originality, and quality of their tricks. For snowboarders, snow availability impacts not only the Games themselves but viable training locations. Athletes are having to “chase the snow” – abandoning their training grounds in search of areas with more abundant and reliable snow.
Alpine skiing, or downhill skiing, combines both speed and technique as athletes race against the clock through marked gates. The average ski season in the U.S. has already shortened by up to a week relative to 1960–1979. Professional alpine ski events like the PwC Tremblant World Cup and the Kandahar World Cup have recently suffered cancellations due to warm temperatures and lack of snow.
Olympic bobsledding is a high-speed race on an outdoor ice track. Each sled completes four timed runs, and the fastest total combined time determines the winner. Ideal bobsled conditions require temperatures that are freezing or below. Although Olympic bobsledding takes place outdoors, many tracks require constant refrigeration in order to maintain those temperatures. While necessary to prevent melting, refrigeration creates frost which can make the track slower, presenting fairness concerns for athletes.
LOCAL STORY ANGLES
What’s the forecast for the 2026 Games?
Long-range forecasts are predicting the location of the 2026 Games to have a 50-60% chance of above average temperatures in February and a 60-70% chance in March.
How will climate change affect winter conditions in different regions?
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s interactive atlas allows users to explore the future of winter conditions across the globe by region. Check out this dashboard from Eurac Research containing snow depth trends for areas in the European Alps from 1971-2019.
How are the Olympics addressing climate change?
Milano Cortina 2026 provides a general summary of the upcoming games, including its sustainability initiatives. The International Olympic Committee announced in 2020 that the Olympic Games and Olympic Winter Games will be “climate positive” from 2030.
How are local businesses, including outdoor retail shops, manufacturers, and recreation centers like ski areas responding to climate change?
Check the economic impact of outdoor recreation on your state’s gross domestic product with the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Outdoor Industry Association also publishes data on jobs and consumer spending at a state level. Climate change has also consolidated the ski industry in some regions, shuttering smaller resorts. Learn what ski areas and the winter outdoor industry in your region are doing to cut their carbon emissions.
CONTACT EXPERTS
Daniel Scott, PhD
Professor
Department of Geography and Environmental Management, University of Waterloo
Relevant expertise: Climate change and tourism/recreation, climate change impacts and adaptation
Contact: daniel.scott@uwaterloo.ca
FIND EXPERTS
Submit a request to SciLine from the American Association for the Advancement of Science or to the Climate Data Concierge from Columbia University. These free services rapidly connect journalists to relevant scientific experts.
Browse maps of climate experts and services at regional NOAA, USDA, and Department of the Interior offices.
Explore databases such as 500 Women Scientists, BIPOC Climate and Energy Justice PhDs, and Diverse Sources to find and amplify diverse expert voices.
Reach out to your State Climate Office or the nearest Land-Grant University to connect with scientists, educators, and extension staff in your local area.
METHODOLOGY
Average February temperatures (aligning with the 2026 Winter Olympics: February 6-22) and average March temperatures (aligning with the 2026 Winter Paralympic Games: March 6-15) for the main 2026 host locations (Milan and Cortina d’Ampezzo, Italy) were calculated using ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis gridded temperature data. Data was extracted from the grid cells containing the two host locations. Trends in February and March average temperatures at each site were computed using linear regression. This represents the change in mean conditions over the period 1956-2025 (years since Cortina d’Ampezzo first hosted the Winter Olympics) and 1976-2025 (years since the first Winter Paralympic Games were held).
The average annual number of freezing days (days with at least one hour of temperatures at/below 32°F) in Cortina d’Ampezzo (the main location for outdoor snow sports during the 2026 Games) were calculated for the 1956-1965 and 2016-2025 decades.