The Climate Story for: England
FIFA #4 | Elo #4
Group L
3 matches | 3 stadiums
Explore how heat could slow down performance for England and how climate change is increasing the odds.
Matches
The next scheduled match for England has a 36% likelihood of performance-impairing heat, which is 14 percentage points higher due to climate change.
One of the group-stage matches that England is playing has an above 50% likelihood of performance-impairing heat. Within their group, England is the #2 team most at risk, with a 49% likelihood on average across their group-stage matches.
Potential routes
Paths to the final
Group L
See the potential road to victory for England and the impact that heat may have on their prospects of winning. Group-stage match locations are fixed, and knockout match locations trace where England could play as a group runner-up, third-place qualifier, or winner.
If England makes it to the final, they will be playing in 4 matches with above 50% odds of performance-impacting heat. And 4 matches where climate change is increasing the odds by at least 10 percentage points.
Color by
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
Winner
Runner-up
Third*
* Third-place qualification depends on results; only one possible R32 destination is shown.
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Group-round heat risk for England
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
England
Group LFIFA #4 | Elo #4As of June 9, 2026
1 of 3 matches have above 50% odds of performance-impairing heat
- “Performance-impairing heat” is heat above 28°C (82.4°F) — a threshold associated with elite players running slower, less far, and less often. Source: Climate Shift Index and ERA5 reanalysis.
Tournament path heat risk
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
Possible tournament paths
England
Group LFIFA #4 | Elo #4
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
0 to 9%10 to 24%25 to 49%50 to 74%75 to 89%90%+
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
Winner
Jun 17M22Dallas
Jun 23M45Boston
Jun 27M67NY/NJ
Jul 1M80Atlanta
Jul 5M92Mexico City
Jul 11M99Miami
Jul 15M102Atlanta
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
Runner-up
Jun 17M22Dallas
Jun 23M45Boston
Jun 27M67NY/NJ
Jul 2M83Toronto
Jul 6M93Dallas
Jul 10M98Los Angeles
Jul 14M101Dallas
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
Third*
Jun 17M22Dallas
Jun 23M45Boston
Jun 27M67NY/NJ
Jul 3M87Kansas City
Jul 7M96Vancouver
Jul 11M100Kansas City
Jul 15M102Atlanta
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
GHA