The Climate Story for: Croatia
FIFA #11 | Elo #10
Group L
4 matches | 3 stadiums
Explore how heat could slow down performance for Croatia and how climate change is increasing the odds.
Matches
Croatia has completed its scheduled matches.
Two of the group-stage matches that Croatia played had an above 50% likelihood of performance-impairing heat. Within their group, Croatia was the #1 team most at risk, with a 56% likelihood on average across their group-stage matches.
Potential routes
Paths to the final
Group L
See the potential road to victory for Croatia and the impact that heat may have on their prospects of winning. Group-stage match locations are fixed, and knockout match locations trace where Croatia could play as a group runner-up, third-place qualifier, or winner.
Actual routeCroatia's path ended in the Round of 32.The actual path is highlighted below and stops at the last match in current results. Other possible branches remain visible for context.
Color by
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
Winner
Runner-upActual route
Actual last match
Third*
* Third-place qualification depends on results; only one possible R32 destination is shown.
Shareable graphics
Share
Group-round heat risk for Croatia
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
Croatia
Group LFIFA #11 | Elo #10As of June 9, 2026
2 of 4 matches have above 50% odds of performance-impairing heat
- “Performance-impairing heat” is heat above 28°C (82.4°F) — a threshold associated with elite players running slower, less far, and less often. Source: Climate Shift Index and ERA5 reanalysis.
Tournament path heat risk
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
Possible tournament paths
Croatia
Group LFIFA #11 | Elo #10
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
0 to 9%10 to 24%25 to 49%50 to 74%75 to 89%90%+
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
Winner
Jun 17M22Dallas
Jun 23M46Toronto
Jun 27M68Philadelphia
Jul 1M80Atlanta
Jul 5M92Mexico City
Jul 11M99Miami
Jul 15M102Atlanta
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
Runner-up
Jun 17M22Dallas
Jun 23M46Toronto
Jun 27M68Philadelphia
Jul 2M83Toronto
Third*
Jun 17M22Dallas
Jun 23M46Toronto
Jun 27M68Philadelphia
Jul 3M87Kansas City
Jul 7M96Vancouver
Jul 11M100Kansas City
Jul 15M102Atlanta
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
ARG
COL