2021 Hurricane Season Preview
Next Tuesday, June 1st, marks the start of the Atlantic hurricane season. Read on to see the state of the science on the impacts of climate change on hurricanes.
Tropical cyclones, which include hurricanes and tropical storms, can generate multiple devastating hazards including storm surge, flooding, winds of 100 mph or more, and tornadoes.
Those living near coasts are especially vulnerable to these tropical cyclone hazards and the risks of injury, death, and property damage.
Tropical cyclones are the most deadly and costly weather disasters in the U.S. by far. They account for over half of the total cost of all billion-dollar disasters since 1980.
Of the 10 most costly weather disasters in the U.S., eight were hurricanes. The top three (Hurricanes Maria, Harvey, and Katrina) resulted in a total of 4,903 lives lost and over $427 billion in damages.
Warming of the surface ocean due to human-caused climate change is fueling an increased proportion of intense tropical cyclones and contributing to an increased fraction of storms that undergo rapid intensification.
Since 1979, human-caused warming has increased the likelihood of a hurricane developing into a Category 3 or higher by about 8% per decade. The latest IPCC reports conclude that the proportion of very intense (Category 4 and 5) tropical cyclones is projected to increase globally with continued global warming.
Although the frequency of tropical storms is not necessarily increasing, sea level rise can amplify the storm surge potential when storms do occur, putting coastal residents at particular risk.
Higher tropical cyclone rainfall rates are expected with further warming. Greater rainfall intensity can increase the risk of inland flooding, which accounts for more than half of past U.S. hurricane deaths.
These resources explore the science, trends, and local impacts of tropical cyclonesSearch our resource library