New Storm May Spare Jersey Shore From Worst Impacts

By Andrew Freedman

A new storm is still taking aim at some of the areas that were seriously damaged by — and still haven't recovered from —  Hurricane Sandy, which came ashore near Atlantic City, on October 29th. However, this next event, which is projected to affect areas from Delaware to Southern New England beginning Wednesday morning, won’t pack nearly as strong a punch as Sandy did, and there are new indications that it will stay far enough offshore to spare coastal areas of its strongest winds and highest waves. The storm's track is not yet certain, though, and for coastal areas that lost protective sand dunes and have property exposed to the elements, even a moderate nor’easter could prove damaging.

Computer model forecast for the new nor'easter slated to affect the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Wednesday into Thursday. Note that the strongest low-level winds (orange shading) remain offshore.
Click to enlarge the image. Credit: Weatherbell Models.

In a statement on Tuesday afternoon, the National Weather Service (NWS) forecast office for much of New Jersey stated that the high winds and coastal flooding expected from the storm make it a “particularly dangerous situation” for areas damaged by Sandy. The Weather Service hoisted high wind warnings and coastal flood warnings from Delaware to Southern New England.

The storm is expected to develop Tuesday night near the coast of North Carolina, and then slowly slide north-northeast, while intensifying rapidly. It is forecast to be off the New Jersey coast on Wednesday through Wednesday night, and then it should weaken as it moves closer to Southern New England on Thursday. It's exact track and strength is crucial to determining how high the winds and waves get in New Jersey and the New York City area.

In a public forecast discussion on Tuesday morning, the National Weather Service (NWS) forecast office for New York City said that if the storm tracks further offshore, as more recent computer modeling suggests, then the “impacts, however, might not be as significant as previously forecast . . . but still significant nevertheless.”

The main storm impacts for coastal areas will be moderate-to-heavy rain, high winds of up to 50 mph or greater — especially on Cape Cod and eastern Long Island — and minor-to-moderate coastal flooding in locations that are susceptible to strong north-to-northeasterly winds, such as Long Island Sound, and the Gardiners and Peconic Bays along the South Fork of Long Island.

“MAJOR FLOODING BASED ON PRE-SANDY BENCHMARKS NOT EXPECTED . . . BUT LOCAL IMPACTS DUE TO CHANGES IN BATHYMETRY AND/OR LOSS OF PROTECTIVE DUNES COULD STILL PRODUCE LOCAL MAJOR IMPACT,” the NWS said.

The coastal flood threat will be greatly reduced compared to when Sandy struck, in part because the astronomical tides are low, but also because this storm won’t bring a hurricane force gusts out of the East, which maximized the coastal flooding potential along the Jersey Shore and in Long Island Sound. Instead of a storm surge of 6-to-12 feet or more, as was the case during Sandy, a maximum surge of about 3-to-4 feet is anticipated, according to the NWS.

Before (left) and after (right) image of the amusement park at Seaside Heights, N.J., which was heavily damaged by Hurricane Sandy.
Click to enlarge the image. Credit: NOAA.

As a precautionary measure, officials have ordered the evacuation of Fire Island, N.Y., and Brick Township, N.J., both of which were heavily damaged by Sandy.

The storm will be moving into an area that has been unusually cold, with morning low temperatures on Tuesday falling below freezing throughout the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England. Interior sections of Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York could see 3-to-6 inches of snow from this storm. The National Weather Service is also calling for a mix of rain and snow even in New York City, with the outside chance that the city will receive a slushy inch of snow on Wednesday night. In Philadelphia, up to an inch of snow is expected.

Related Content 
How Global Warming Made Hurricane Sandy Worse
Hurricane Sandy Paralyzes New York, New Jersey
Hurricane Sandy Walloping East Coast With Surge, Winds
Hurricane Sandy Roars Ashore, Threatening Record Surge
Sandy's Storm Surge Explained and Why It Matters
Ongoing Coverage of Historic Hurricane Sandy
Hurricane Sandy Set to Deliver Massive Blow to East Coast
Hurricane Sandy’s Five-Fold Flood Threat, with Local Maps
How Fujiwara Effect Will Toss Sandy Into U.S.
Officials Warn of Hurricane Sandy's Rare Damage Potential
How Hurricane Sandy Can Become a 'Frankenstorm'
Sea Level Rising Faster Than Average in Northeast U.S.