Early-season heat wave in France intensified by climate change

Exceptionally intense and early summer heat is forecast to spread across France from June 12 to 16, with temperatures soaring well above normal for mid-June. Climate Central analysis shows that human-caused climate change made this extreme heat up to five times more likely. 

Note: This event may continue beyond June 16th. Use the Global Climate Shift Index map to stay updated on heat in your region.

How unusual is the forecasted heat?

• Following a significant late-May heat wave, another period of excessive heat is forecast across most of France, where average temperatures are expected to climb 8 to 11°C (14°F to 20°F) above normal over the next few days (compared to 1991-2020 climate normals). 

• Daytime high temperatures will be especially extreme on Friday, June 13, and may exceed 35°C (95°F) just south of Paris — more than 15°C (27°F) above normal. 

• Northwestern France may experience severe thunderstorms, driven by an unstable air mass caused by excessive heat and humidity.

• The exceptional warmth is expected to persist and become even more widespread across Western Europe by early next week, including parts of Spain and France. 

• The hot temperatures are associated with a strong southerly flow as an upper-level high-pressure system (or heat dome) remains stationary over Central Europe.

How has climate change influenced this heat?

• Daily average temperatures are expected to reach Climate Shift Index (CSI) level 5 across southern France during the next several days. 

  • A CSI level 5 indicates that human-caused climate change made this excessive heat at least five times more likely, signifying an exceptional climate change event. 

• During this period, more than 16.3 million people in France are projected to experience at least one day with CSI level 5.

  • Nearly 58 million people — about 87% of the country’s population — will experience at least one day with CSI level 3.

    • A CSI level 3 indicates that these unusually high temperatures were made at least three times more likely by human-caused climate change.

What do experts say?

Dr. Zachary Labe, Climate Scientist at Climate Central, said: 
“This is yet another example of how climate change is increasing the risk of dangerous summertime heat arriving earlier and earlier in the year. As long as we continue burning fossil fuels, the threat of heat stress on human health, infrastructure, and ecosystems will keep rising, extending well beyond peak summer months.”

To request an interview with a Climate Central scientist, please contact Abbie Veitch at aveitch@climatecentral.org. 

How do we know climate change is influencing this heat?

The Climate Shift Index uses peer-reviewed methodology and real-time data to estimate how climate change has increased the likelihood of a particular daily temperature.

Reporting resources

• Climate Central’s Extreme Weather Toolkit: Extreme Heat

• World Weather Attribution’s guide to reporting on extreme heat and climate change

• Yale Climate Connections’ summary of the connection between heat waves and climate change.

• Potential Energy’s Guide to Reporting on Unnatural Disasters