The Climate Story for: New Zealand
FIFA #85 | Elo #68
Group G
3 matches | 2 stadiums
Explore how heat could slow down performance for New Zealand and how climate change is increasing the odds.
Matches
The next scheduled match for New Zealand has a 3% likelihood of performance-impairing heat, which is 1 percentage point higher due to climate change.
None of the group-stage matches that New Zealand is playing have an above 50% likelihood of performance-impairing heat. Within their group, New Zealand is the #3 team most at risk, with a 12% likelihood on average across their group-stage matches.
Potential routes
Paths to the final
Group G
See the potential road to victory for New Zealand and the impact that heat may have on their prospects of winning. Group-stage match locations are fixed, and knockout match locations trace where New Zealand could play as a group runner-up, third-place qualifier, or winner.
If New Zealand makes it to the final, they will be playing in 2 matches with above 50% odds of performance-impacting heat. And 1 match where climate change is increasing the odds by at least 10 percentage points.
Color by
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
Winner
Runner-up
Third*
* Third-place qualification depends on results; only one possible R32 destination is shown.
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Group-round heat risk for New Zealand
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
New Zealand
Group GFIFA #85 | Elo #68As of June 9, 2026
0 of 3 matches have above 50% odds of performance-impairing heat
- “Performance-impairing heat” is heat above 28°C (82.4°F) — a threshold associated with elite players running slower, less far, and less often. Source: Climate Shift Index and ERA5 reanalysis.
Tournament path heat risk
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
Possible tournament paths
New Zealand
Group GFIFA #85 | Elo #68
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
0 to 9%10 to 24%25 to 49%50 to 74%75 to 89%90%+
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
Winner
Jun 15M15Los Angeles
Jun 21M40Vancouver
Jun 26M64Vancouver
Jul 1M82Seattle
Jul 6M94Seattle
Jul 10M98Los Angeles
Jul 14M101Dallas
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
Runner-up
Jun 15M15Los Angeles
Jun 21M40Vancouver
Jun 26M64Vancouver
Jul 3M88Dallas
Jul 7M95Atlanta
Jul 11M100Kansas City
Jul 15M102Atlanta
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
Third*
Jun 15M15Los Angeles
Jun 21M40Vancouver
Jun 26M64Vancouver
Jun 30M77NY/NJ
Jul 4M89Philadelphia
Jul 9M97Boston
Jul 14M101Dallas
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
IRA