The Climate Story for: New Zealand
FIFA #85 | Elo #68
Group G
3 matches | 2 stadiums
Explore how heat could slow down performance for New Zealand and how climate change is increasing the odds.
Matches
New Zealand has completed its scheduled matches.
None of the group-stage matches that New Zealand played had an above 50% likelihood of performance-impairing heat. Within their group, New Zealand was the #3 team most at risk, with a 12% likelihood on average across their group-stage matches.
Potential routes
Paths to the final
Group G
See the potential road to victory for New Zealand and the impact that heat may have on their prospects of winning. Group-stage match locations are fixed, and knockout match locations trace where New Zealand could play as a group runner-up, third-place qualifier, or winner.
Actual routeNew Zealand's path ended in the group stage.The completed group-stage matches are highlighted below. Knockout branches remain visible as pre-tournament possibilities.
Color by
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
Winner
Runner-up
Third*
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Group-round heat risk for New Zealand
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
New Zealand
Group GFIFA #85 | Elo #68As of June 9, 2026
0 of 3 matches have above 50% odds of performance-impairing heat
- “Performance-impairing heat” is heat above 28°C (82.4°F) — a threshold associated with elite players running slower, less far, and less often. Source: Climate Shift Index and ERA5 reanalysis.
Tournament path heat risk
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
Possible tournament paths
New Zealand
Group GFIFA #85 | Elo #68
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
0 to 9%10 to 24%25 to 49%50 to 74%75 to 89%90%+
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
Winner
Jun 15M15Los Angeles
Final: 2-2
Jun 21M40Vancouver
Final: 1-3
Jun 26M64Vancouver
Final: 1-5
Jul 1M82Seattle
Final: 3-2
Jul 6M94Seattle
Final: 1-4
Jul 10M98Los Angeles
Final: 2-1
Jul 14M101Dallas
Final: 0-2
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
Final: 1-0
Runner-up
Jun 15M15Los Angeles
Final: 2-2
Jun 21M40Vancouver
Final: 1-3
Jun 26M64Vancouver
Final: 1-5
Jul 3M88Dallas
Final: 1-1 (2-4 pens)
Jul 7M95Atlanta
Final: 3-2
Jul 11M100Kansas City
Final: 3-1
Jul 15M102Atlanta
Final: 1-2
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
Final: 1-0
Third*
Jun 15M15Los Angeles
Final: 2-2
Jun 21M40Vancouver
Final: 1-3
Jun 26M64Vancouver
Final: 1-5
SPA
ARG