The Climate Story for: Iran
FIFA #21 | Elo #31
Group G
3 matches | 2 stadiums
Explore how heat could slow down performance for Iran and how climate change is increasing the odds.
Matches
The next scheduled match for Iran has a 6% likelihood of performance-impairing heat, which is 2 percentage points higher due to climate change.
None of the group-stage matches that Iran is playing have an above 50% likelihood of performance-impairing heat. Within their group, Iran is the #1 team most at risk, with a 24% likelihood on average across their group-stage matches.
Potential routes
Paths to the final
Group G
See the potential road to victory for Iran and the impact that heat may have on their prospects of winning. Group-stage match locations are fixed, and knockout match locations trace where Iran could play as a group runner-up, third-place qualifier, or winner.
If Iran makes it to the final, they will be playing in 2 matches with above 50% odds of performance-impacting heat. And 1 match where climate change is increasing the odds by at least 10 percentage points.
Color by
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
Winner
Runner-up
Third*
* Third-place qualification depends on results; only one possible R32 destination is shown.
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Group-round heat risk for Iran
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
Iran
Group GFIFA #21 | Elo #31As of June 9, 2026
0 of 3 matches have above 50% odds of performance-impairing heat
- “Performance-impairing heat” is heat above 28°C (82.4°F) — a threshold associated with elite players running slower, less far, and less often. Source: Climate Shift Index and ERA5 reanalysis.
Tournament path heat risk
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
Possible tournament paths
Iran
Group GFIFA #21 | Elo #31
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
0 to 9%10 to 24%25 to 49%50 to 74%75 to 89%90%+
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
Winner
Jun 15M15Los Angeles
Jun 21M39Los Angeles
Jun 26M63Seattle
Jul 1M82Seattle
Jul 6M94Seattle
Jul 10M98Los Angeles
Jul 14M101Dallas
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
Runner-up
Jun 15M15Los Angeles
Jun 21M39Los Angeles
Jun 26M63Seattle
Jul 3M88Dallas
Jul 7M95Atlanta
Jul 11M100Kansas City
Jul 15M102Atlanta
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
Third*
Jun 15M15Los Angeles
Jun 21M39Los Angeles
Jun 26M63Seattle
Jun 30M77NY/NJ
Jul 4M89Philadelphia
Jul 9M97Boston
Jul 14M101Dallas
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
NZL