The Climate Story for: Mexico
Group A
3 matches | 2 stadiums
Explore how heat could slow down performance for Mexico and how climate change is increasing the odds.
Upcoming matches
Mexico’s next scheduled match has a 19% likelihood of performance-impairing heat, which is 8 percentage points higher due to climate change.
One of the group-stage matches that Mexico is playing has an above 50% likelihood of performance-impairing heat. Within their group, Mexico is the 4th most at risk, with a 39% likelihood on average across their group-stage matches.
Potential routes
Paths to the final
See Mexico's potential road to victory and the impact that heat may have on its prospects of winning. Group-stage match locations are fixed, and knockout match locations trace where Mexico could play as a group runner-up, third-place qualifier, or winner.
Group A
If Mexico makes it to the final, they will be playing in 3 matches with above 50% odds of performance-impacting heat. And 3 matches where climate change is increasing the odds by at least 10 percentage points.
Color by
Account for climate-controlled stadiums
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
Winner
Runner-up
Third*
* Third-place qualification depends on results; only one possible R32 destination is shown.
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Mexico's group-round heat risk
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
Mexico
Group AAs of June 9, 2026
1 of 3 matches have above 50% odds of performance-impairing heat
- “Performance-impairing heat” is heat above 28°C (82.4°F) — a threshold associated with elite players running slower, less far, and less often. Source: Climate Shift Index and ERA5 reanalysis.
Tournament path heat risk
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
Possible tournament paths
Mexico
Group A
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
0 to 9%10 to 24%25 to 49%50 to 74%75 to 89%90%+
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
Winner
Jun 11M1Mexico City
Jun 18M28Guadalajara
Jun 24M53Mexico City
Jun 30M79Mexico City
Jul 5M92Mexico City
Jul 11M99Miami
Jul 15M102Atlanta
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
Runner-up
Jun 11M1Mexico City
Jun 18M28Guadalajara
Jun 24M53Mexico City
Jun 28M73Los Angeles
Jul 4M90Houston
Jul 9M97Boston
Jul 14M101Dallas
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
Third*
Jun 11M1Mexico City
Jun 18M28Guadalajara
Jun 24M53Mexico City
Jun 29M74Boston
Jul 4M89Philadelphia
Jul 9M97Boston
Jul 14M101Dallas
Jul 19M104NY/NJ