The Climate Story for: Mexico
FIFA #15 | Elo #20
Group A
3 matches | 2 stadiums
Explore how heat could slow down performance for Mexico and how climate change is increasing the odds.
Matches
The next scheduled match for Mexico has a 9% likelihood of performance-impairing heat, which is 5 percentage points higher due to climate change.
One of the group-stage matches that Mexico is playing has an above 50% likelihood of performance-impairing heat. Within their group, Mexico is the #4 team most at risk, with a 39% likelihood on average across their group-stage matches.
Potential routes
Paths to the final
Group A
See the potential road to victory for Mexico and the impact that heat may have on their prospects of winning. Group-stage match locations are fixed, and knockout match locations trace where Mexico could play as a group runner-up, third-place qualifier, or winner.
If Mexico makes it to the final, they will be playing in 3 matches with above 50% odds of performance-impacting heat. And 3 matches where climate change is increasing the odds by at least 10 percentage points.
Color by
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
Winner
Runner-up
Third*
* Third-place qualification depends on results; only one possible R32 destination is shown.
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Group-round heat risk for Mexico
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
Mexico
Group AFIFA #15 | Elo #20As of June 9, 2026
1 of 3 matches have above 50% odds of performance-impairing heat
- “Performance-impairing heat” is heat above 28°C (82.4°F) — a threshold associated with elite players running slower, less far, and less often. Source: Climate Shift Index and ERA5 reanalysis.
Tournament path heat risk
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
Possible tournament paths
Mexico
Group AFIFA #15 | Elo #20
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
0 to 9%10 to 24%25 to 49%50 to 74%75 to 89%90%+
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
Winner
Jun 11M1Mexico City
Jun 18M28Guadalajara
Jun 24M53Mexico City
Jun 30M79Mexico City
Jul 5M92Mexico City
Jul 11M99Miami
Jul 15M102Atlanta
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
Runner-up
Jun 11M1Mexico City
Jun 18M28Guadalajara
Jun 24M53Mexico City
Jun 28M73Los Angeles
Jul 4M90Houston
Jul 9M97Boston
Jul 14M101Dallas
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
Third*
Jun 11M1Mexico City
Jun 18M28Guadalajara
Jun 24M53Mexico City
Jun 29M74Boston
Jul 4M89Philadelphia
Jul 9M97Boston
Jul 14M101Dallas
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
KOR