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Last forecast for this matchAs of June 19, 2026 at 2:00 PM ETForecast high was 28°C2°C below normal

Forecast high was .

This was 2°C below normal.

This heat could have impaired player performance.

How is this different from the probability of performance-impairing heat?

Source: Climate Shift Index and NOAA GFS forecasts through 2026-06-19T18Z.

The Climate Story for:

Mexico flagMexicovs.South Korea flagSouth Korea

Group Stage · Group A

Thu, June 18, 20267:00 p.m.Estadio GuadalajaraOpen air

Review the modeled heat risk for this match and how climate change affected the odds.

Data

88%Chance of performance-impairing heat+20%From climate change

The June 18 match at Estadio Guadalajara (Mexico vs. South Korea) had a 88% chance of heat that can impair performance.

Those odds were 20 percentage points higher due to climate change.

The science explained

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World Cup 2026 & Climate Change

Mexico flagMexico
South Korea flagSouth Korea

June 18, 2026 • Estadio Guadalajara

Group AOpen air
88%Chance of performance-impairing heat
+20%From climate change
  • “Performance-impairing heat” is heat above 28°C (82.4°F) — a threshold associated with elite players running slower, less far, and less often. Source: Climate Shift Index and ERA5 reanalysis.

Mexico flagMexico

Group A3 matches, 2 stadiums
Go to team page
Next match:

Czechia flagCZE—Mexico flagMEX

9%Chance of performance-impairing heat+5%From climate change

South Korea flagSouth Korea

Group A3 matches, 2 stadiums
Go to team page
Next match:

South Africa flagRSA—South Korea flagKOR

78%Chance of performance-impairing heat+14%From climate change

Guadalajara

Mexico flagMexico

Go to stadium page
Next match:

Uruguay flagUruguay—Spain flagSpain

70%Chance of performance-impairing heat+37%From climate change