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The Climate Story for:

Mexico flagMexicovs.Ecuador flagEcuador

Round of 32

Tue, June 30, 20267:00 p.m. CSTMexico City StadiumOpen air

Review the modeled heat risk for this match and how climate change affected the odds.

Data

9%Chance of performance-impairing heat+5%From climate change

The June 30 match at Mexico City Stadium (Mexico vs. Ecuador) had a 9% chance of heat that can impair performance.

Those odds were 5 percentage points higher due to climate change.

The science explained

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World Cup 2026 & Climate Change

Mexico flagMexico
Ecuador flagEcuador

June 30, 2026 • Mexico City Stadium

Round of 32Open air
9%Chance of performance-impairing heat
+5%From climate change
  • “Performance-impairing heat” is heat above 28°C (82.4°F) — a threshold associated with elite players running slower, less far, and less often. Source: Climate Shift Index and ERA5 reanalysis.

Mexico flagMexico

Group A5 matches, 2 stadiums
Go to team page
Latest match:

Mexico flagMEX—England flagENG

9%Chance of performance-impairing heat+5%From climate change

Ecuador flagEcuador

Group E4 matches, 4 stadiums
Go to team page
Latest match:

Mexico flagMEX—Ecuador flagECU

9%Chance of performance-impairing heat+5%From climate change

Mexico City

Mexico flagMexico

Go to stadium page
Latest match:

Mexico flagMexico—England flagEngland

9%Chance of performance-impairing heat+5%From climate change