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Last forecast for this matchAs of June 12, 2026 at 2:00 PM ETForecast high was 21°C0°C below normal

Forecast high was .

This was 0°C below normal.

How is this different from the probability of performance-impairing heat?

Source: Climate Shift Index and NOAA GFS forecasts through 2026-06-12T18Z.

The Climate Story for:

Mexico flagMexicovs.South Africa flagSouth Africa

Group Stage · Group A

Thu, June 11, 20261:00 p.m.Mexico City StadiumOpen air

Review the modeled heat risk for this match and how climate change affected the odds.

Data

19%Chance of performance-impairing heat+8%From climate change

The June 11 match at Mexico City Stadium (Mexico vs. South Africa) had a 19% chance of heat that can impair performance.

Those odds were 8 percentage points higher due to climate change.

The science explained

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World Cup 2026 & Climate Change

Mexico flagMexico
South Africa flagSouth Africa

June 11, 2026 • Mexico City Stadium

Group AOpen air
19%Chance of performance-impairing heat
+8%From climate change
  • “Performance-impairing heat” is heat above 28°C (82.4°F) — a threshold associated with elite players running slower, less far, and less often. Source: Climate Shift Index and ERA5 reanalysis.

Mexico flagMexico

Group A3 matches, 2 stadiums
Go to team page
Next match:

Mexico flagMEX—South Korea flagKOR

88%Chance of performance-impairing heat+20%From climate change

South Africa flagSouth Africa

Group A3 matches, 3 stadiums
Go to team page
Next match:

Czechia flagCZE—South Africa flagRSA

77%Chance of performance-impairing heat+15%From climate change

Mexico City

Mexico flagMexico

Go to stadium page
Next match:

Czechia flagCzechia—Mexico flagMexico

9%Chance of performance-impairing heat+5%From climate change