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The Climate Story for:

Portugal flagPortugalvs.Croatia flagCroatia

Round of 32

Thu, July 2, 20267:00 p.m. EDTToronto StadiumOpen air

Review the modeled heat risk for this match and how climate change affected the odds.

Data

19%Chance of performance-impairing heat+6%From climate change

The July 2 match at Toronto Stadium (Portugal vs. Croatia) had a 19% chance of heat that can impair performance.

Those odds were 6 percentage points higher due to climate change.

The science explained

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World Cup 2026 & Climate Change

Portugal flagPortugal
Croatia flagCroatia

July 2, 2026 • Toronto Stadium

Round of 32Open air
19%Chance of performance-impairing heat
+6%From climate change
  • “Performance-impairing heat” is heat above 28°C (82.4°F) — a threshold associated with elite players running slower, less far, and less often. Source: Climate Shift Index and ERA5 reanalysis.

Portugal flagPortugal

Group K5 matches, 4 stadiums
Go to team page
Latest match:

Portugal flagPOR—Spain flagSPA

98%Chance of performance-impairing heat+2%From climate change

Croatia flagCroatia

Group L4 matches, 3 stadiums
Go to team page
Latest match:

Portugal flagPOR—Croatia flagCRO

19%Chance of performance-impairing heat+6%From climate change

Toronto

Canada flagCanada

Go to stadium page
Latest match:

Portugal flagPortugal—Croatia flagCroatia

19%Chance of performance-impairing heat+6%From climate change