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Last forecast for this matchAs of June 20, 2026 at 2:00 PM ETForecast high was 22°C2°C below normal

Forecast high was .

This was 2°C below normal.

How is this different from the probability of performance-impairing heat?

Source: Climate Shift Index and NOAA GFS forecasts through 2026-06-20T18Z.

The Climate Story for:

Panama flagPanamavs.Croatia flagCroatia

Group Stage · Group L

Tue, June 23, 20267:00 p.m.Toronto StadiumOpen air

Review the modeled heat risk for this match and how climate change affected the odds.

Data

9%Chance of performance-impairing heat+1%From climate change

The June 23 match at Toronto Stadium (Panama vs. Croatia) had a 9% chance of heat that can impair performance.

Those odds were 1 percentage point higher due to climate change.

The science explained

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World Cup 2026 & Climate Change

Panama flagPanama
Croatia flagCroatia

June 23, 2026 • Toronto Stadium

Group LOpen air
9%Chance of performance-impairing heat
+1%From climate change
  • “Performance-impairing heat” is heat above 28°C (82.4°F) — a threshold associated with elite players running slower, less far, and less often. Source: Climate Shift Index and ERA5 reanalysis.

Panama flagPanama

Group L3 matches, 2 stadiums
Go to team page
Next match:

Panama flagPAN—England flagENG

36%Chance of performance-impairing heat+14%From climate change

Croatia flagCroatia

Group L3 matches, 3 stadiums
Go to team page
Next match:

Croatia flagCRO—Ghana flagGHA

63%Chance of performance-impairing heat+17%From climate change

Toronto

Canada flagCanada

Go to stadium page
Next match:

To Be DeterminedRunner-up Group K—To Be DeterminedRunner-up Group L

19%Chance of performance-impairing heat+6%From climate change