The Climate Story for: United States
FIFA #16 | Elo #41
Group D
3 matches | 2 stadiums
Explore how heat could slow down performance for United States and how climate change is increasing the odds.
Matches
The next scheduled match for United States has a 49% likelihood of performance-impairing heat, which is 6 percentage points higher due to climate change.
None of the group-stage matches that United States is playing have an above 50% likelihood of performance-impairing heat. Within their group, United States is the #1 team most at risk, with a 28% likelihood on average across their group-stage matches.
Potential routes
Paths to the final
Group D
See the potential road to victory for United States and the impact that heat may have on their prospects of winning. Group-stage match locations are fixed, and knockout match locations trace where United States could play as a group runner-up, third-place qualifier, or winner.
If United States makes it to the final, they will be playing in 2 matches with above 50% odds of performance-impacting heat. And 1 match where climate change is increasing the odds by at least 10 percentage points.
Color by
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
Winner
Runner-up
Third*
* Third-place qualification depends on results; only one possible R32 destination is shown.
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Group-round heat risk for United States
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
United States
Group DFIFA #16 | Elo #41As of June 9, 2026
0 of 3 matches have above 50% odds of performance-impairing heat
- “Performance-impairing heat” is heat above 28°C (82.4°F) — a threshold associated with elite players running slower, less far, and less often. Source: Climate Shift Index and ERA5 reanalysis.
Tournament path heat risk
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
Possible tournament paths
United States
Group DFIFA #16 | Elo #41
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
0 to 9%10 to 24%25 to 49%50 to 74%75 to 89%90%+
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
Winner
Jun 12M4Los Angeles
Jun 19M32Seattle
Jun 25M59Los Angeles
Jul 1M81SF Bay Area
Jul 6M94Seattle
Jul 10M98Los Angeles
Jul 14M101Dallas
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
Runner-up
Jun 12M4Los Angeles
Jun 19M32Seattle
Jun 25M59Los Angeles
Jul 3M88Dallas
Jul 7M95Atlanta
Jul 11M100Kansas City
Jul 15M102Atlanta
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
Third*
Jun 12M4Los Angeles
Jun 19M32Seattle
Jun 25M59Los Angeles
Jun 29M74Boston
Jul 4M89Philadelphia
Jul 9M97Boston
Jul 14M101Dallas
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
PAR