The Climate Story for: United States
FIFA #16 | Elo #41
Group D
5 matches | 3 stadiums
Explore how heat could slow down performance for United States and how climate change is increasing the odds.
Matches
United States has completed its scheduled matches.
None of the group-stage matches that United States played had an above 50% likelihood of performance-impairing heat. Within their group, United States was the #1 team most at risk, with a 28% likelihood on average across their group-stage matches.
July 1 - Round of 32
Potential routes
Paths to the final
Group D
See the potential road to victory for United States and the impact that heat may have on their prospects of winning. Group-stage match locations are fixed, and knockout match locations trace where United States could play as a group runner-up, third-place qualifier, or winner.
Actual routeUnited States' path ended in the Round of 16.The actual path is highlighted below and stops at the last match in current results. Other possible branches remain visible for context.
Color by
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
WinnerActual route
Actual last match
Runner-up
Third*
* Third-place qualification depends on results; only one possible R32 destination is shown.
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Group-round heat risk for United States
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
United States
Group DFIFA #16 | Elo #41As of June 9, 2026
0 of 5 matches have above 50% odds of performance-impairing heat
- “Performance-impairing heat” is heat above 28°C (82.4°F) — a threshold associated with elite players running slower, less far, and less often. Source: Climate Shift Index and ERA5 reanalysis.
Tournament path heat risk
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
Possible tournament paths
United States
Group DFIFA #16 | Elo #41
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
0 to 9%10 to 24%25 to 49%50 to 74%75 to 89%90%+
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
Winner
Jun 12M4Los Angeles
Final: 4-1
Jun 19M32Seattle
Final: 2-0
Jun 25M59Los Angeles
Final: 3-2
Jul 1M81SF Bay Area
Final: 2-0
Jul 6M94Seattle
Final: 1-4
Runner-up
Jun 12M4Los Angeles
Final: 4-1
Jun 19M32Seattle
Final: 2-0
Jun 25M59Los Angeles
Final: 3-2
Jul 3M88Dallas
Final: 1-1 (2-4 pens)
Jul 7M95Atlanta
Final: 3-2
Jul 11M100Kansas City
Final: 3-1
Jul 15M102Atlanta
Final: 1-2
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
Final: 1-0
Third*
Jun 12M4Los Angeles
Final: 4-1
Jun 19M32Seattle
Final: 2-0
Jun 25M59Los Angeles
Final: 3-2
Jun 29M74Boston
Final: 1-1 (3-4 pens)
Jul 4M89Philadelphia
Final: 0-1
Jul 9M97Boston
Final: 2-0
Jul 14M101Dallas
Final: 0-2
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
Final: 1-0
EGY
FRA