The Climate Story for: Turkey
FIFA #22 | Elo #14
Group D
3 matches | 3 stadiums
Explore how heat could slow down performance for Turkey and how climate change is increasing the odds.
Matches
Turkey has completed its scheduled matches.
None of the group-stage matches that Turkey played had an above 50% likelihood of performance-impairing heat. Within their group, Turkey was the #3 team most at risk, with a 23% likelihood on average across their group-stage matches.
Potential routes
Paths to the final
Group D
See the potential road to victory for Turkey and the impact that heat may have on their prospects of winning. Group-stage match locations are fixed, and knockout match locations trace where Turkey could play as a group runner-up, third-place qualifier, or winner.
Actual routeTurkey's path ended in the group stage.The completed group-stage matches are highlighted below. Knockout branches remain visible as pre-tournament possibilities.
Color by
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
Winner
Runner-up
Third*
* Third-place qualification depends on results; only one possible R32 destination is shown.
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Group-round heat risk for Turkey
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
Turkey
Group DFIFA #22 | Elo #14As of June 9, 2026
0 of 3 matches have above 50% odds of performance-impairing heat
- “Performance-impairing heat” is heat above 28°C (82.4°F) — a threshold associated with elite players running slower, less far, and less often. Source: Climate Shift Index and ERA5 reanalysis.
Tournament path heat risk
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
Possible tournament paths
Turkey
Group DFIFA #22 | Elo #14
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
0 to 9%10 to 24%25 to 49%50 to 74%75 to 89%90%+
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
Winner
Jun 13M6Vancouver
Final: 2-0
Jun 19M31SF Bay Area
Final: 0-1
Jun 25M59Los Angeles
Final: 3-2
Jul 1M81SF Bay Area
Final: 2-0
Jul 6M94Seattle
Final: 1-4
Jul 10M98Los Angeles
Final: 2-1
Jul 14M101Dallas
Final: 0-2
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
Final: 1-0
Runner-up
Jun 13M6Vancouver
Final: 2-0
Jun 19M31SF Bay Area
Final: 0-1
Jun 25M59Los Angeles
Final: 3-2
Jul 3M88Dallas
Final: 1-1 (2-4 pens)
Jul 7M95Atlanta
Final: 3-2
Jul 11M100Kansas City
Final: 3-1
Jul 15M102Atlanta
Final: 1-2
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
Final: 1-0
Third*
Jun 13M6Vancouver
Final: 2-0
Jun 19M31SF Bay Area
Final: 0-1
Jun 25M59Los Angeles
Final: 3-2
Jun 29M74Boston
Final: 1-1 (3-4 pens)
Jul 4M89Philadelphia
Final: 0-1
Jul 9M97Boston
Final: 2-0
Jul 14M101Dallas
Final: 0-2
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
Final: 1-0
EGY
FRA
BEL