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The Climate Story for:

United States flagUnited Statesvs.Bosnia and Herzegovina flagBosnia and Herzegovina

Round of 32

Wed, July 1, 20265:00 p.m. PDTSan Francisco Bay Area StadiumOpen air

Review the modeled heat risk for this match and how climate change affected the odds.

Data

26%Chance of performance-impairing heat-1%From climate change

The July 1 match at San Francisco Bay Area Stadium (United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina) had a 26% chance of heat that can impair performance.

Those odds were 1 percentage point lower due to climate change.

The science explained

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World Cup 2026 & Climate Change

United States flagUnited States
Bosnia and Herzegovina flagBosnia and Herzegovina

July 1, 2026 • San Francisco Bay Area Stadium

Round of 32Open air
26%Chance of performance-impairing heat
-1%From climate change
  • “Performance-impairing heat” is heat above 28°C (82.4°F) — a threshold associated with elite players running slower, less far, and less often. Source: Climate Shift Index and ERA5 reanalysis.

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United States flagUnited States

Group D5 matches, 3 stadiums
Go to team page
Latest match:

United States flagUSA—Belgium flagBEL

6%Chance of performance-impairing heat+2%From climate change

Bosnia and Herzegovina flagBosnia and Herzegovina

Group B4 matches, 4 stadiums
Go to team page
Latest match:

United States flagUSA—Bosnia and Herzegovina flagBIH

26%Chance of performance-impairing heat-1%From climate change

San Francisco/Bay Area

United States flagUnited States

Go to stadium page
Latest match:

United States flagUnited States—Bosnia and Herzegovina flagBosnia and Herzegovina

26%Chance of performance-impairing heat-1%From climate change