The Climate Story for: Spain
FIFA #2 | Elo #1
Group H
7 matches | 4 stadiums
Explore how heat could slow down performance for Spain and how climate change is increasing the odds.
Matches
Spain has completed its scheduled matches.
All of the group-stage matches that Spain played had an above 50% likelihood of performance-impairing heat. Within their group, Spain was the #4 team most at risk, with a 74% likelihood on average across their group-stage matches.
July 2 - Round of 32
July 6 - Round of 16
July 10 - Quarterfinals
Potential routes
Paths to the final
Group H
See the potential road to victory for Spain and the impact that heat may have on their prospects of winning. Group-stage match locations are fixed, and knockout match locations trace where Spain could play as a group runner-up, third-place qualifier, or winner.
If Spain makes it to the final, they will be playing in 6 matches with above 50% odds of performance-impacting heat. And 4 matches where climate change is increasing the odds by at least 10 percentage points.
Actual routeSpain's live path is highlighted.The actual path is highlighted below. Other possible branches remain visible for context.
Color by
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
WinnerActual route
Runner-up
Third*
Shareable graphics
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Group-round heat risk for Spain
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
Spain
Group HFIFA #2 | Elo #1As of June 9, 2026
6 of 7 matches have above 50% odds of performance-impairing heat
- “Performance-impairing heat” is heat above 28°C (82.4°F) — a threshold associated with elite players running slower, less far, and less often. Source: Climate Shift Index and ERA5 reanalysis.
Tournament path heat risk
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
Possible tournament paths
Spain
Group HFIFA #2 | Elo #1
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
0 to 9%10 to 24%25 to 49%50 to 74%75 to 89%90%+
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
Winner
Jun 15M14Atlanta
Jun 21M38Atlanta
Jun 26M66Guadalajara
Jul 2M84Los Angeles
Jul 6M93Dallas
Jul 10M98Los Angeles
Jul 14M101Dallas
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
Runner-up
Jun 15M14Atlanta
Jun 21M38Atlanta
Jun 26M66Guadalajara
Jul 3M86Miami
Jul 7M95Atlanta
Jul 11M100Kansas City
Jul 15M102Atlanta
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
Third*
Jun 15M14Atlanta
Jun 21M38Atlanta
Jun 26M66Guadalajara
ARG