The Climate Story for: Japan
Group F
3 matches | 2 stadiums
Explore how heat could slow down performance for Japan and how climate change is increasing the odds.
Upcoming matches
Japan’s next scheduled match has a 95% likelihood of performance-impairing heat, which is 6 percentage points higher due to climate change.
All of the group-stage matches that Japan is playing have an above 50% likelihood of performance-impairing heat. Within their group, Japan is the 3rd most at risk, with a 91% likelihood on average across their group-stage matches.
Potential routes
Paths to the final
See Japan's potential road to victory and the impact that heat may have on its prospects of winning. Group-stage match locations are fixed, and knockout match locations trace where Japan could play as a group runner-up, third-place qualifier, or winner.
Group F
If Japan makes it to the final, they will be playing in 6 matches with above 50% odds of performance-impacting heat. And 4 matches where climate change is increasing the odds by at least 10 percentage points.
Color by
Account for climate-controlled stadiums
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
Winner
Runner-up
Third*
* Third-place qualification depends on results; only one possible R32 destination is shown.
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Japan's group-round heat risk
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
Japan
Group FAs of June 9, 2026
3 of 3 matches have above 50% odds of performance-impairing heat
- “Performance-impairing heat” is heat above 28°C (82.4°F) — a threshold associated with elite players running slower, less far, and less often. Source: Climate Shift Index and ERA5 reanalysis.
Tournament path heat risk
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
Possible tournament paths
Japan
Group F
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
0 to 9%10 to 24%25 to 49%50 to 74%75 to 89%90%+
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
Winner
Jun 14M11Dallas
Jun 20M36Monterrey
Jun 25M57Dallas
Jun 29M75Monterrey
Jul 4M90Houston
Jul 9M97Boston
Jul 14M101Dallas
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
Runner-up
Jun 14M11Dallas
Jun 20M36Monterrey
Jun 25M57Dallas
Jun 29M76Houston
Jul 5M91NY/NJ
Jul 11M99Miami
Jul 15M102Atlanta
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
Third*
Jun 14M11Dallas
Jun 20M36Monterrey
Jun 25M57Dallas
Jun 29M74Boston
Jul 4M89Philadelphia
Jul 9M97Boston
Jul 14M101Dallas
Jul 19M104NY/NJ