The Climate Story for: Japan
FIFA #18 | Elo #13
Group F
4 matches | 3 stadiums
Explore how heat could slow down performance for Japan and how climate change is increasing the odds.
Matches
Japan has completed its scheduled matches.
All of the group-stage matches that Japan played had an above 50% likelihood of performance-impairing heat. Within their group, Japan was the #3 team most at risk, with a 91% likelihood on average across their group-stage matches.
Potential routes
Paths to the final
Group F
See the potential road to victory for Japan and the impact that heat may have on their prospects of winning. Group-stage match locations are fixed, and knockout match locations trace where Japan could play as a group runner-up, third-place qualifier, or winner.
Actual routeJapan's path ended in the Round of 32.The actual path is highlighted below and stops at the last match in current results. Other possible branches remain visible for context.
Color by
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
Winner
Runner-upActual route
Actual last match
Third*
* Third-place qualification depends on results; only one possible R32 destination is shown.
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Group-round heat risk for Japan
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
Japan
Group FFIFA #18 | Elo #13As of June 9, 2026
4 of 4 matches have above 50% odds of performance-impairing heat
- “Performance-impairing heat” is heat above 28°C (82.4°F) — a threshold associated with elite players running slower, less far, and less often. Source: Climate Shift Index and ERA5 reanalysis.
Tournament path heat risk
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
Possible tournament paths
Japan
Group FFIFA #18 | Elo #13
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
0 to 9%10 to 24%25 to 49%50 to 74%75 to 89%90%+
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
Winner
Jun 14M11Dallas
Jun 20M36Monterrey
Jun 25M57Dallas
Jun 29M75Monterrey
Jul 4M90Houston
Jul 9M97Boston
Jul 14M101Dallas
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
Runner-up
Jun 14M11Dallas
Jun 20M36Monterrey
Jun 25M57Dallas
Jun 29M76Houston
Third*
Jun 14M11Dallas
Jun 20M36Monterrey
Jun 25M57Dallas
Jun 30M77NY/NJ
Jul 4M89Philadelphia
Jul 9M97Boston
Jul 14M101Dallas
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
MOR
FRA