The Climate Story for: Japan
FIFA #18 | Elo #13
Group F
3 matches | 2 stadiums
Explore how heat could slow down performance for Japan and how climate change is increasing the odds.
Matches
The next scheduled match for Japan has a 98% likelihood of performance-impairing heat, which is 2 percentage points higher due to climate change.
All of the group-stage matches that Japan is playing have an above 50% likelihood of performance-impairing heat. Within their group, Japan is the #3 team most at risk, with a 91% likelihood on average across their group-stage matches.
Potential routes
Paths to the final
Group F
See the potential road to victory for Japan and the impact that heat may have on their prospects of winning. Group-stage match locations are fixed, and knockout match locations trace where Japan could play as a group runner-up, third-place qualifier, or winner.
If Japan makes it to the final, they will be playing in 6 matches with above 50% odds of performance-impacting heat. And 4 matches where climate change is increasing the odds by at least 10 percentage points.
Color by
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
Winner
Runner-up
Third*
* Third-place qualification depends on results; only one possible R32 destination is shown.
Shareable graphics
Share
Group-round heat risk for Japan
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
Japan
Group FFIFA #18 | Elo #13As of June 9, 2026
3 of 3 matches have above 50% odds of performance-impairing heat
- “Performance-impairing heat” is heat above 28°C (82.4°F) — a threshold associated with elite players running slower, less far, and less often. Source: Climate Shift Index and ERA5 reanalysis.
Tournament path heat risk
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
Possible tournament paths
Japan
Group FFIFA #18 | Elo #13
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
0 to 9%10 to 24%25 to 49%50 to 74%75 to 89%90%+
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
Winner
Jun 14M11Dallas
Jun 20M36Monterrey
Jun 25M57Dallas
Jun 29M75Monterrey
Jul 4M90Houston
Jul 9M97Boston
Jul 14M101Dallas
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
Runner-up
Jun 14M11Dallas
Jun 20M36Monterrey
Jun 25M57Dallas
Jun 29M76Houston
Jul 5M91NY/NJ
Jul 11M99Miami
Jul 15M102Atlanta
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
Third*
Jun 14M11Dallas
Jun 20M36Monterrey
Jun 25M57Dallas
Jun 29M74Boston
Jul 4M89Philadelphia
Jul 9M97Boston
Jul 14M101Dallas
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
TUN