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The Climate Story for:

Brazil flagBrazilvs.Japan flagJapan

Round of 32

Mon, June 29, 202612:00 p.m. CDTHouston StadiumClimate-controlled

Review the modeled heat risk for this match and how climate change affected the odds.

Data

97%Chance of performance-impairing heat+2%From climate change

The June 29 match at Houston Stadium (Brazil vs. Japan) had a 97% chance of heat that can impair performance.

Those odds were 2 percentage points higher due to climate change.

The science explained

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World Cup 2026 & Climate Change

Brazil flagBrazil
Japan flagJapan

June 29, 2026 • Houston Stadium

Round of 32Climate-controlled
97%Chance of performance-impairing heat
+2%From climate change
  • “Performance-impairing heat” is heat above 28°C (82.4°F) — a threshold associated with elite players running slower, less far, and less often. Source: Climate Shift Index and ERA5 reanalysis.

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Brazil flagBrazil

Group C5 matches, 4 stadiums
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Latest match:

Brazil flagBRA—Norway flagNOR

36%Chance of performance-impairing heat+14%From climate change

Japan flagJapan

Group F4 matches, 3 stadiums
Go to team page
Latest match:

Brazil flagBRA—Japan flagJAP

97%Chance of performance-impairing heat+2%From climate change

Houston

United States flagUnited States

Go to stadium page
Latest match:

Canada flagCanada—Morocco flagMorocco

97%Chance of performance-impairing heat+2%From climate change