The Climate Story for: Ecuador
FIFA #23 | Elo #9
Group E
4 matches | 4 stadiums
Explore how heat could slow down performance for Ecuador and how climate change is increasing the odds.
Matches
Ecuador has completed its scheduled matches.
One of the group-stage matches that Ecuador played had an above 50% likelihood of performance-impairing heat. Within their group, Ecuador was the #2 team most at risk, with a 49% likelihood on average across their group-stage matches.
Potential routes
Paths to the final
Group E
See the potential road to victory for Ecuador and the impact that heat may have on their prospects of winning. Group-stage match locations are fixed, and knockout match locations trace where Ecuador could play as a group runner-up, third-place qualifier, or winner.
Actual routeEcuador's path ended in the Round of 32.The actual path is highlighted below and stops at the last match in current results. Other possible branches remain visible for context.
Color by
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
Winner
Runner-up
Third*Actual route
Actual last match
* Third-place qualification depends on results; only one possible R32 destination is shown.
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Group-round heat risk for Ecuador
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
Ecuador
Group EFIFA #23 | Elo #9As of June 9, 2026
1 of 4 matches have above 50% odds of performance-impairing heat
- “Performance-impairing heat” is heat above 28°C (82.4°F) — a threshold associated with elite players running slower, less far, and less often. Source: Climate Shift Index and ERA5 reanalysis.
Tournament path heat risk
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
Possible tournament paths
Ecuador
Group EFIFA #23 | Elo #9
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
0 to 9%10 to 24%25 to 49%50 to 74%75 to 89%90%+
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
Winner
Jun 14M9Philadelphia
Jun 20M34Kansas City
Jun 25M56NY/NJ
Jun 29M74Boston
Jul 4M89Philadelphia
Jul 9M97Boston
Jul 14M101Dallas
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
Runner-up
Jun 14M9Philadelphia
Jun 20M34Kansas City
Jun 25M56NY/NJ
Jun 30M78Dallas
Jul 5M91NY/NJ
Jul 11M99Miami
Jul 15M102Atlanta
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
Third*
Jun 14M9Philadelphia
Jun 20M34Kansas City
Jun 25M56NY/NJ
Jun 30M79Mexico City
PAR
NOR