The Climate Story for: Brazil
FIFA #6 | Elo #5
Group C
5 matches | 4 stadiums
Explore how heat could slow down performance for Brazil and how climate change is increasing the odds.
Matches
Brazil has completed its scheduled matches.
One of the group-stage matches that Brazil played had an above 50% likelihood of performance-impairing heat. Within their group, Brazil was the #1 team most at risk, with a 52% likelihood on average across their group-stage matches.
June 29 - Round of 32
Potential routes
Paths to the final
Group C
See the potential road to victory for Brazil and the impact that heat may have on their prospects of winning. Group-stage match locations are fixed, and knockout match locations trace where Brazil could play as a group runner-up, third-place qualifier, or winner.
Actual routeBrazil's path ended in the Round of 16.The actual path is highlighted below and stops at the last match in current results. Other possible branches remain visible for context.
Color by
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
WinnerActual route
Actual last match
Runner-up
Third*
Shareable graphics
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Group-round heat risk for Brazil
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
Brazil
Group CFIFA #6 | Elo #5As of June 9, 2026
2 of 5 matches have above 50% odds of performance-impairing heat
- “Performance-impairing heat” is heat above 28°C (82.4°F) — a threshold associated with elite players running slower, less far, and less often. Source: Climate Shift Index and ERA5 reanalysis.
Tournament path heat risk
World Cup 2026 & Climate Change
Possible tournament paths
Brazil
Group CFIFA #6 | Elo #5
Chance of heat conditions that can slow player performance.
0 to 9%10 to 24%25 to 49%50 to 74%75 to 89%90%+
G1
G2
G3
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
Winner
Jun 13M7NY/NJ
Final: 1-1
Jun 19M29Philadelphia
Final: 3-0
Jun 24M49Miami
Final: 0-3
Jun 29M76Houston
Final: 2-1
Jul 5M91NY/NJ
Final: 1-2
Runner-up
Jun 13M7NY/NJ
Final: 1-1
Jun 19M29Philadelphia
Final: 3-0
Jun 24M49Miami
Final: 0-3
Jun 29M75Monterrey
Final: 1-1 (2-3 pens)
Jul 4M90Houston
Final: 0-3
Jul 9M97Boston
Final: 2-0
Jul 14M101Dallas
Final: 0-2
Jul 19M104NY/NJ
Final: 1-0
Third*
Jun 13M7NY/NJ
Final: 1-1
Jun 19M29Philadelphia
Final: 3-0
Jun 24M49Miami
Final: 0-3
FRA