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Last forecast for this matchAs of June 20, 2026 at 2:00 PM ETForecast high was 21°C3°C below normal

Forecast high was .

This was 3°C below normal.

How is this different from the probability of performance-impairing heat?

Source: Climate Shift Index and NOAA GFS forecasts through 2026-06-20T18Z.

The Climate Story for:

Germany flagGermanyvs.Ivory Coast flagIvory Coast

Group Stage · Group E

Sat, June 20, 20264:00 p.m.Toronto StadiumOpen air

Review the modeled heat risk for this match and how climate change affected the odds.

Data

9%Chance of performance-impairing heat+1%From climate change

The June 20 match at Toronto Stadium (Germany vs. Ivory Coast) had a 9% chance of heat that can impair performance.

Those odds were 1 percentage point higher due to climate change.

The science explained

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World Cup 2026 & Climate Change

Germany flagGermany
Ivory Coast flagIvory Coast

June 20, 2026 • Toronto Stadium

Group EOpen air
9%Chance of performance-impairing heat
+1%From climate change
  • “Performance-impairing heat” is heat above 28°C (82.4°F) — a threshold associated with elite players running slower, less far, and less often. Source: Climate Shift Index and ERA5 reanalysis.

Germany flagGermany

Group E3 matches, 3 stadiums
Go to team page
Next match:

Ecuador flagECU—Germany flagGER

36%Chance of performance-impairing heat+14%From climate change

Ivory Coast flagIvory Coast

Group E3 matches, 2 stadiums
Go to team page
Next match:

Curaçao flagCUR—Ivory Coast flagCIV

63%Chance of performance-impairing heat+17%From climate change

Toronto

Canada flagCanada

Go to stadium page
Next match:

Senegal flagSenegal—Iraq flagIraq

19%Chance of performance-impairing heat+6%From climate change