Climate change in Jacksonville, Florida

Climate change is affecting locations like Jacksonville in a variety of ways. In fall, these impacts include increased cooling demand, changes to fall foliage, and heavier rain.

Explore these pages to learn how people in Jacksonville are at risk in a warming world.

Since 1970, average annual temperatures in Jacksonville have gotten 2.0°F warmer, reflecting an overall warming trend.

Warming puts people and ecosystems at risk from more frequent and intense extreme weather.
Overall, the contiguous U.S. is about 2.8°F warmer today than in 1970, based on average temperatures.
Data source: NOAA ACIS

Since 1970, Jacksonville's annual precipitation has increased by 0.7 inches.

Climate change is supercharging the water cycle and bringing heavier precipitation extremes across the U.S.
For every 1°F of warming, the air can hold 4% more moisture, increasing the chances of heavier downpours that contribute to flash flooding hazards.
Data source: NOAA ACIS

As of October 9, 2026, Jacksonville has experienced 120 days this year with temperatures made twice as likely by climate change.

This is according to the Climate Shift Index (CSI), which quantifies the influence of human-caused climate change on daily average temperatures. Temperatures on these days had a CSI level 2 or higher, which indicates local temperatures were at least two times more likely due to climate change.
The CSI ranges from -5 to +5. Positive levels indicate temperatures made more likely due to climate change (while negative scores indicate conditions made less likely).
Data source: Climate Shift Index

Jacksonville's climate threats in include:

Jacksonville has experienced a 18% change in hourly rainfall intensity since 1970.

As the climate has warmed over recent decades, the most extreme precipitation days have become more intense across the U.S.
This data uses the simple hourly rainfall intensity index, or the total annual rainfall amount divided by the total hours of rainfall each year (inches per hour). An increase indicates more rain is falling per hour. NOAA’s Rain Rate Visualizer videos show various hourly rainfall rates.
Data source: NOAA ACIS

Between 1980 and 2025, Florida experienced 36 billion-dollar hurricanes.

As the planet warms, extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense, resulting in devastating losses.
Tropical cyclones (which include hurricanes and tropical storms) are the most costly extreme weather events in the U.S.
This data shows the total number of hurricanes with at least one billion dollars in damages that occurred during 1980-2025.
Data source: U.S. Billion Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters

Since 1970, average fall temperatures in Jacksonville have gotten 1.3°F warmer, reflecting an overall warming trend.

Fall warming means that risky heat, fire weather, and allergies linger later into the year.
Data source: NOAA ACIS

The sea level in Jacksonville is projected to rise 1.0 feet by 2050 even if nations meet their pledged commitments to reduce heat-trapping pollution.

Increasing flood risk is driven by our warming climate, which is causing sea levels around the world to rise. Rising sea levels push tides and storm surges higher and farther inland.
Climate Central’s Coastal Risk Finder provides maps and analysis of the people, homes, and land in the U.S. projected to be at risk from worsening coastal flooding driven by rising seas.

Explore some ways climate change is affecting Jacksonville in fall

Higher cooling demand for schools

Hotter summers and longer warm seasons make cooling schools a growing challenge.

Key concepts:

Hotter summers and longer warm seasons make cooling schools a growing challenge.
Cooling is essential for student and staff health and safety.
Since 1970, cooling demand during back-to-school season rose in 95% of U.S. locations analyzed.
Rising demand means schools face costly upgrades to keep classrooms safe and comfortable.

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Impacts to fall color

Conditions that trigger fall color are shifting with climate change.

Key concepts:

Foliage depends on temperature, day length, and rainfall — as well as other conditions including extreme weather events.
Cool fall nights can boost color, but they have warmed 2.7°F (1970–2023) in 212 U.S. locations.
Warmer falls can delay or shorten peak foliage.

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Heavier rainfall rates

Heavier rain threatens people, ecosystems, and infrastructure nationwide.

Key concepts:

Climate change is supercharging the water cycle, driving heavier rainfall and flood risk.
126 U.S. cities (88%) have seen an increase in hourly rainfall intensity since 1970.
Increases have occurred in every U.S. region but are highest in the Upper Midwest, Northern Rockies & Plains, and Ohio Valley.
Heavier rain threatens people, ecosystems, and infrastructure nationwide.

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More intense hurricanes

Warmer oceans from climate change fuel stronger hurricanes.

Key concepts:

Warmer oceans from climate change fuel stronger Atlantic hurricanes with heavier rain and higher storm surge.
Rising seas amplify storm surge, increasing risks for coastal residents.
Warmer air holds more moisture, driving heavier downpours and flooding.

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Impacts to food prices

Extreme events fueled by climate change can damage crops, reduce yields, and disrupt supply chains.

Key concepts:

Food and climate change are closely linked. Food systems account for about one-quarter of all heat-trapping pollution.
Meanwhile, extreme events fueled by climate change can damage crops, reduce yields, and disrupt supply chains — all of which can drive food prices higher.
The availability, quality, and affordability of food reflect a complex set of climatic and socioeconomic factors. Emerging research is providing insight into the role of climate change.

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Climate change in Jacksonville, Florida

Jacksonville's climate threats in fall include:

Explore some ways climate change is affecting Jacksonville in fall

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Jacksonville's climate threats in include: