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Heat Wave May Threaten World’s Hottest Temp. Record

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EDITOR'S NOTE: This story has been updated to reflect new forecast information on Friday, June 28.

A brutal and potentially historic heat wave is in store for the West as parts of Nevada, Arizona and California may get dangerously hot temperatures starting Thursday and lasting through next week. In fact, by the end of the heat wave, we may see a record tied or broken for the hottest temperature ever recorded on Earth.

The furnace-like heat is coming courtesy of a “stuck” weather pattern that is setting up across the U.S. and Canada. Starting this weekend, the jet stream  a fast-moving river of air at airliner altitudes that is responsible for steering weather systems — will form the shape of a massive, slithering snake with what meteorologists refer to as a deep “ridge” across the Western states, and an equally deep trough seting up across the Central and Eastern states. 

Heat statistics for Las Vegas, Bishop and Death Valley, Calif.
Credit: NWS

All-time records are likely to be threatened in normally hot places — including Death Valley, Calif., which holds the record for the highest reliably recorded air temperature on Earth at 134°F. That mark was set on July 10, 1913, and with forecast highs between 125°F to 130°F this weekend, that record could be threatened. The last time Death Valley recorded a temperature at or above 130°F was in 1913.

Las Vegas and Phoenix, two cities well-known for their hot and dry summers, are also predicted to approach all-time record territory. Last Vegas’ all-time high temperature record is 117°F and Phoenix’s high is 122°F. Excessive heat warnings are in effect in both cities from Friday through Monday.

Las Vegas could come close to tying its record for the longest stretch of days at or above 110°F, which is 10 straight, set in 1961. Phoenix may approach its record for the number of consecutive days at or above 116°F, which is four, set in 1990. Reliable weather records began there in 1896. Forecast highs in Phoenix range between 115°F to 120°F for Friday through Sunday.

“While hot temperatures are a regular feature in this part of the country, a heat wave of this proportion and duration is not common,” the NWS forecast office in Phoenix said on its website. “Several days at or near 100°F are common for the southwest Arizona [and] southeast California deserts in the summer. But periods of temperatures at or above 115°F are more rare."

Forecast atmospheric pressure dpeartures from average (geopotential height anomalies) at about 18,000 feet for Saturday, June 29. The red area shows the "heat dome" or area of higher than average pressure, across the West.
Credit: Weatherbell.com

While each heat wave has ties to short-term weather variability, increasingly common and intense heat waves are one of the most well-understood consequences of manmade global warming, since as global average surface temperatures increase, the probability of extreme heat events increases by a greater amount. Data already suggests that heat waves have are becoming more common worldwide.

One study, published in the Proceedings of the American Academy of Sciences in 2012, found that the odds of extremely hot summers have significantly increased in tandem with global temperatures. Those odds, the study found, were about 1-in-300 during the 1951-1980 timeframe, but that had increased to nearly 1-in-10 by 1981-2010.

Another study to be published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters found that manmade global warming has increased the chances of Australians experiencing extremely hot summers by more than five times, and is likely to raise the odds by even more in the coming decades. Australia experienced its hottest summer on record in 2012-2013, which also featured destructive wildfires and floods.

The heat in the West during the weekend and during the first week in July will also affect inland areas of Southern California and the state's Central Valley, where excessive heat watches and warnings have been issued for temperatures in the 100s Fahrenheit. The NWS said on Thursday that the strong heat dome may migrate northward through the 4th of July holiday, potentially locking the near-record high temperatures in place for a week or more, raising the risk of wildfires, and bringing a heat wave to places like Salt Lake City, Boise, Portland and Seattle.

The heat is also likely to aggravate already dire drought conditions in the Southwest. Fortunately, the hottest weather is not likely to affect Colorado and parts of New Mexico, where the largest wildfires have been burning to date

Forecast temperature departures from average on July 3, 2013, showing the migration of the heat wave into the pacific Northwest and Southwest Canada.
Credit: Weatherbell.com.

Such extreme heat also poses a major public health threat, since extreme heat is the No. 1 weather-related killer in the U.S. The NWS has warned that little relief from the hot temperatures can be expected at night, especially in urban areas, where temperatures may not drop below 90°F overnight.

At the same time, downstream from the heat dome, a sharp dip in the jet stream will help set up repeated rounds of heavy rainfall as well as cooler-than-average temperatures for Central and Eastern states, where flooding will be more of a concern than record heat.

Extreme weather events, from floods to drought to heat waves, are often associated with blocked or “stuck” weather patterns. Such features were present during the deadly Russian heat wave of 2010, the European heat wave of 2003, and more recently during Hurricane Sandy, and the Alaskan heat wave and related flooding in Canada, for example.

Some computer-model projections show the ridge of high pressure this week extending all the way northward into Alberta, Canada while the trough retrogrades, or moves from east-to-west, which is the opposite of the typical movement of weather systems in the northern hemisphere. Calgary, Alberta is beginning to recover from record flooding, and this weather means that the same area that just experienced a deluge could be in store for unusually hot weather, and the public health hazards that come along with it.

Some scientists think the jet stream in the Northern Hemisphere is becoming more prone to such extremes due to the changes wrought by melting Arctic sea ice from global warming, and it's an active area of scientific research.

Related Content
Global Warming Behind Australia's 'Angry Summer': Study
Hansen Study: Extreme Weather Tied to Climate Change
2012 Heat Wave is Historic, If Not Unprecedented
A Closer Look at Arctic Sea Ice Melt and Extreme Weather
Arctic Warming is Altering Weather Patterns, Study Shows
8 Images to Understand the Drought in the Southwest

Comments

By lorenzo (arroyo grande ca 93420)
on June 26th, 2013

wow and after harp has been on full blast the last 4 days over all of the western states see haarpstatus.co. see the gov document weather as a force multiplier

Reply to this comment

By Michael (Ontario )
on June 26th, 2013

You suggest we are going to break a record set 100 years ago and you blame that on Global Warming? First we’ll see if any records are set than we will talk why it took 100 years then we can talk about the speed…

Reply to this comment

By Mark Ward (Scottsdale AZ 85262)
on June 26th, 2013

If you have or know elderly folks, often they will scrimp on their air conditioning to save money - fearing a horrendous electric bill that they cannot pay.  Especially those living on a fixed income!  Call or better yet, visit these people and encourage them to keep their AC set below 80 degrees and to monitor their homes to make sure the temps are actually being held to something below 80 or 82.  Many Air Conditioning units are inadequate to handle this kind of a heat wave and will not be able to cool their homes.  If that should happen, remove all the clothing they can and remain decent, use wetted towels and washcloths to keep their bodies cooler and drink plenty of liquids, etc.  If their AC should fail during this heat wave - make sure they know to go to friends or neighbors or a hotel/motel and stay there until their AC is up and running again. To stay in a home without cooling could easily kill a young person in this kind of heat. A home without air conditioning could easily reach interior temps of over 120 degrees in a few hours of direct sun.  Dangerously hot for anyone!

Reply to this comment

By Bruce Wayne (Bristol)
on June 26th, 2013

So how did we get such a high temp in 1913 without carbon emissions?

Reply to this comment

By Andrew
on June 26th, 2013

This story does not blame global warming for the upcoming heat wave. Rather, it makes clear that more frequent and intense heat waves are a consequence of global warming, regardless of the uncertainties surrounding its ties to any particular event.

Yes, the original Death Valley record was set in 1913, but the Southwest has been warming quite rapidly in the past several decades - tilting the odds in favor of more heat records. Arizona, in fact, has been the fastest warming state since 1970, and computer models consistently show a hotspot of warming (and drying) in the Southwest U.S.

See: http://www.climatecentral.org/news/the-heat-is-on

Reply to this comment

By Eric Peterson (Front Royal, VA 22630)
on June 26th, 2013

Seems to me that with such a strong high ideally placed for heat in Death Valley, then the 100 year record should be broken.  If it is not broken, then there are two possibilities: 1. the high was not strong enough or 2. there is no net warming over the last 100 years in Death Valley.

Reply to this comment

By Eric Peterson (Front Royal, VA 22630)
on June 26th, 2013

Two more things worth mentioning: Phoenix has a well-studied urban heat island effect of 0.04 degree F per year (daytime) much more at nighttime.  This is at least double the average warming from global warming.

Second, there is no reason to expect more frequent heat waves in the near term.  What might affect Arizona in the long term is expansion of the Hadley cells, but that will take time and may not manifest over land, just ocean.  The idea of “changes wrought by melting Arctic sea ice from global warming” is very speculative and really only applicable to the fall.  As Steve Goddard recently noted, the Arctic has some record low temperatures recently That makes sense because melt season is going to be cooled by melting ice.  Refreeze season in the fall will be warmed.  That is indeed what is happening, see http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php and click on any years.

I would be looking at the polar jet as a apropos of anything during the summer.  It is much more likely that the tropical jets and tropical weather is applicable (e.g. Hadley cell expansion).

Reply to this comment

By Houston
on June 26th, 2013

Yet my weatherman can’t get the prediction right for the next day…

Reply to this comment

By John Holroyd (Houlton, WI 54082)
on June 26th, 2013

Pork is now considered cooked when it reaches 145 degrees F.  It looks like the inside of a car will be plenty hot enough to do a pork roast.  Wow.

Reply to this comment

By Doug (Minneapolis)
on June 27th, 2013

“So how did we get such a high temp in 1913 without carbon emissions”?

Try looking up and understanding natural variability….

Reply to this comment

By Jan Freed (l.a./CA/90041)
on June 27th, 2013

It is the pattern of extremes that tell the tale (just like a pattern of “snake eyes” in a crooked casino tell the tale), not just one event.

The world has experienced over 336 consecutive months (28years!) of higher than average (pre-oil) monthly temperatures.  That’s like flipping heads 336 times in a row. The odds this is just chance is equal to one divided by the total number of stars in the universe.  I’ll give ten to one odds that the July averages will be higher than July averages in the 20th Ce.

In a stable climate, there would be about the same number of warmer and cooler than average months.

Reply to this comment

By Jan Freed (l.a./CA/90041)
on June 27th, 2013

The Russian heat wave of 2010 broke records going back over 500 years; it killed about 15,000 people.

http://www.climatecentral.org/blogs/2010-russian-heatwave-more-extreme-than-previously-thought/

The warming in the “pipeline” will increase as it has not caught up yet with current CO2 concentrations.. 

Average temperature from AGW are now 1.5 deg F higher;  we are on track for up to 9 deg F increase by 2100 with BAU. 

Say, “Goodnight, Gracie”.  You win, deniers. You win, GOP.

Reply to this comment

By barry
on June 27th, 2013

I was looking at records for other parts of the U.S. for the next five days and it seems like some of the temps are getting close to record lows, so its a give and take but blame it on what you want to.

Reply to this comment

By brianw (nashville tn 37206)
on June 27th, 2013

OMG summer time is here or as the al gore funds recipients say “global warming!” but wait when winter is here its “climate change”.  Turn off your charcoal grills guys you are heating up the earth. pay a carbon tax to al gores private company which stands to profit and he will magicly change the weather for you!  wonder how many checks climate central has recieved from the known criminal al gore who runs up 11000 dollar electric bills at his private home in cookeville TN.  bet his ac is on full blast.

Reply to this comment

By Harv (Bastrop, Texas 78602)
on June 27th, 2013

I would beg to differ with your statement that “This story does not blame global warming for the upcoming heat wave.”  Yet you next say, “..intense heat waves are a consequence of global warming….” 

Of course, you earlier said in the article:

“Heat waves are one of the most well-understood consequences of manmade global warming, since as global average surface temperatures increase, the probability of extreme heat events increases by a greater amount.

One study, published in the Proceedings of the American Academy of Sciences in 2012, found that the odds of extremely hot summers have significantly increased in tandem with global temperatures. Those odds, the study found, were about 1-in-300 during the 1951-1980 timeframe, but that had increased to nearly 1-in-10 by 1981-2010.”

So it seems to me that you have here even named “manmade global warming” as the cause, and now you deny that?

 

Reply to this comment

By Tony
on June 27th, 2013

I was in Phoenix in May 2000, and for me, from northern Quebec, the heat was just stifling, although it was a dry heat. I think it was 108F the week I was there - it cooled down to just a bit under 90F at night. I don’t know how folks there stand it.

Reply to this comment

By John jarvi (williams, oregon)
on June 27th, 2013

Agree that HAARP and chemtrails influence weather. 
No solution can be found unless the problem is understood.
HAARP and chemtrials need to be stopped to get a clear picture of what the weather would be without them.
Climate data has been admittedly falsified to fulfill a tax
initiative.  Good luck with the truth from this government.

Reply to this comment

By Andrew
on June 27th, 2013

Harv,

The story makes clear that the high pressure area and unusual jet stream configuration are leading to this heat wave, but that the long-term trend is for more frequent and severe heat waves as a result of global warming. You’re getting hung up on proximate “cause” vs. long-term trends, I think. The language you referred to has been edited slightly to incorporate your point, though, as it has some merit, I think.

-A

Reply to this comment

By Colorado Bob
on June 27th, 2013

Human-caused global warming played a role in making this past summer Australia’s hottest on record, a new study suggests.

The summer of 2012-2013 probably won’t retain its title for long; researchers say record-breaking scorching summers are five times more likely to occur now in Australia due to climate change.

“Our research has shown that, due to greenhouse gas emissions, these types of extreme summers will become even more frequent and more severe in the future,” study author Sophie Lewis of the University of Melbourne said in a statement.
http://www.livescience.com/37793-global-warming-australia-record-hot-summer.html

Reply to this comment

By Colorado Bob
on June 27th, 2013

MOSCOW, June 27 (RIA Novosti) – Sweltering temperatures in Moscow on Thursday broke a more than century-old record for the city’s hottest June 27, and the mercury is still rising.

The temperature in Moscow hit 31.4 degrees Celsius (88.5 Fahrenheit) on Thursday, the highest for that day since 1911, the Fobos weather center reported.

Even hotter weather is expected Friday. Russia’s capital has been in a heat wave since Monday, with temperatures higher than normal by as much as 8 degrees Celsius.
http://en.ria.ru/russia/20130627/181912898/Moscow-Breaks-100-Year-Heat-Record.html

Reply to this comment

By Barb Coddington (Glenwood spgs CO 81601)
on June 27th, 2013

Glad to see the “flat earth society” alive and well on this web site.  The patterns of record high temps have UNCREASED in FREQUENCY and in DURATION because of climate pattern shifts, caused by man made GLOBAL WARMING.  This is a sad and frightening fact and no obstreperous obstinate misinformed commenting is going to change it.

Reply to this comment

By Ernie
on June 27th, 2013

Hey, the Elite will certainly pin a medal on you for doing their work.
They give you the job, you pass the ide on to us, several days to a week ahead,
then, THE People, the idea to focus on, and manifesting it in the
Collective.


Thank you so much.

Reply to this comment

By Eric Peterson (Front Royal, VA 22630)
on June 27th, 2013

“The world has experienced over 336 consecutive months (28years!) of higher than average (pre-oil) monthly temperatures.”  “That’s like flipping heads 336 times in a row”.

Jan, monthly temperatures are auto-corellated so the measurement each month is a function of the previous month plus the manmade rise and/or rise or fall from weather (dependent events), so it is not like coin tosses which are all independent events.  The main reason temperatures are “above average” is that the average includes part of the Little Ice Age when the world was cooler than most of the last 10,000 years.  So warming may be peaking and temperatures about to decline (thanks to solar slump) yet still be “above average” each month for a while.

Even including deaths from heat waves, death rates in winter are about twice the death rates in summer in most temperate countries including Russia.  Cold always kills more people than heat does.

Andrew, when you say “the long-term trend is for more frequent and severe heat waves as a result of global warming”, it is certainly possible especially in the desert southwest.  But that expansion of drought has yet to be felt (compared to historical drought such as the 30’s) and we don’t know how long it will take to get to having persistent drought if ever.  That’s because the current estimated expansion of the Hadley cells comes mostly from expansion over the ocean where geography doesn’t matter.  On land in the desert SW, the monsoon alleviates some of the drought (and will this year starting in a week or two).

Reply to this comment

By dave1021 (Anytown, US 98765)
on June 27th, 2013

But - but - there’s no such thing as global warming! Rush TOLD me so, I BELIEVE it, and that’s the END of it!

...said every rightwing moron constantly…

Reply to this comment

By Tom (Chapel Hill)
on June 27th, 2013

These deniers sound like a bunch of “denier bots.” These are literally paid deniers, using software that enables them to assume the identity of several “people” so it appears there is more denial out there than there actually is. I read several climate-related websites and these same comments are parroted from one to the next.  I think what we have here is a bunch of oil-funded denier bots that really constitute only a couple to a few people assuming multiple profiles. They have their taking points down pat, and it is all BS.

Global warming is real, is primarily human caused, and is getting worse year upon year.  It’s a fact that every major political party on the face of the earth but one knows this except the Republicans, with their hand in the pocket of big business.  This is all about money.  At some point these denier bot cowards will crawl back into their holes and we will all be stuck with the ongoing end of the world as we know it, year by year. It’s just criminal what they do.

This is not an honest exchange of opinions anymore.  I think the comment sections need moderation to strip out the nonsensical.  If I claimed Jesus was causing AGW, is that worth posting?  Like Nancy Pelosi said when asked about MIchelle Bachman’s comment on the overturn of DOMA, “Who cares?!”

Reply to this comment

By Eric Peterson (Front Royal, VA 22630)
on June 27th, 2013

Tom, it may be comforting to believe that people on the contrarian side of this issue are “denier bots”, but most are not.  You can see that rather easily by reading the comments on sites like WattsUpWithThat which have literally thousands of real people commenting from around the world.

In response to your comment: man made global warming is real but it is modest (about 0.5 to 1C so far and currently rising about 1C per century).  Warming might be getting “worse” but that’s only if you believe that warming is bad.  I do not.  It may continue to warm or we may have a several decade lull in warming from the lull in solar activity.  If the latter, then I presume you will be back to admit you were wrong?  Here’s the most reliable temperature record we have from satellite: http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_May_2013_v5.5.png Does that look like a serious rise to you?  Why is 0.1C or so per decade serious?  Or 0.13C per decade if you include the 80’s and 90’s?

Reply to this comment

By Troy (Hagerstown, MD 21742)
on June 27th, 2013

Keeping your sanity in the presence of Climate Change Deniers is simple. Don’t read or respond to any of their comments. Yeah, yeah, the earth is flat. By all means, read the article, and then respond to intelligent comments only.

Reply to this comment

By Tom (Chapel Hill)
on June 27th, 2013

As stated above:
++++++++++++++++++++++++
This is not an honest exchange of opinions anymore.  I think the comment sections need moderation to strip out the nonsensical.  If I claimed Jesus was causing AGW, is that worth posting?  Like Nancy Pelosi said when asked about MIchelle Bachman’s comment on the overturn of DOMA, “Who cares?!”
++++++++++++++++++++++++
That means you, Eric Peterson, and all the other deniers on this site. It’s all nonsense you spout…

Reply to this comment

By Daniel (Las Vegas, Nevada)
on June 27th, 2013

I agree with everything Tom(Chapel Hill) except that I don’t think all the moronic climate deniers are being paid, there a lot of stupid people out there that can’t understand science and how a higher CO2 PPM can actually affect the planet.

Reply to this comment

By Tom Lowe (Borrego Springs, CA 92004)
on June 27th, 2013

Given that weather data reported for here (Borrego Springs, CA) on weather.com actually comes from another valley 60 miles away (Thermal, CA), I have to conclude that no one’s numbers can be trusted.

Imagine that kind of error propagated for 100 years or more.  By now all of that distantly past data is truly meaningless.

It has already been proven that the Global Warmists in UK fudged their data and cheated, and from that I have to conclude that no one’s numbers can be trusted.

No, your numbers are not trustworthy.

No no no.

I have no opinion on global warming.

What I am saying is that your numbers are no good.

Reply to this comment

By John Zoeckler (Diamond Bar, CA,91765)
on June 27th, 2013

Many of the posts today represent the aluminum foil hat type of deniers.  Perhaps a brief introduction into the distinction between weather and climate would be in order for those folks.  There isn’t time to deal with the “Flat Earth Society” folks any longer.  We have dithered away the entire decade of the ‘90s when the data was just as convincing as it is now, but we allowed these know-nothings to delay and obfuscate in order to continue their profitable enterprizes at our expense. 

The best response to their rants is, perhaps, that expressed by Sen. Nancy Pelosi who said in reference to Rep. Michelle Bachman, “Who Cares ?”

Reply to this comment

By Caroline Flake (van bc)
on June 27th, 2013

Yes chemtrail spraying/HAARP manipulation needs to stop, we do not know what regular weather is right now, as it is not being allowed to play out its natural cycle and or weather pattern/rhythm.  Until we address the fact that factor X (being chemtrails and HAARP) are heavily at work, and are affecting the upper jet streams which in turn affect weather we are being manipulated into accepting cabon taxes which is an initiative by the U.N.,  In the beginning they wanted to create an environmental tax to be levied everywhere, there was opposition to it fiercely, it has now morphed into carbon tax.  The most ungreen of governments have already implemented carbon taxes, eg British Columbia Canada.  While they allow oil pipelines through their provinces, carbon taxes are levied against ordinary citizens.

Reply to this comment

By Kendall
on June 27th, 2013

I thought weather wasn’t climate, as proclaimed by every warming alarmist whenever the winters are overly cold for a while.  I guess that doesn’t apply when it supports your warming religion!

The really laughable thing is that in all the cases the temperatures only “threaten” the records, as in they are shy by a few degrees.  So in other words, summer is hot and has generally been hot in the past!  Thanks for the news flash.

Reply to this comment

By steve (apple valley)
on June 27th, 2013

The cause of global warming is too many people. Not implying anything but just as it is. More people means more needs of every kind including more emissions. Everyone wants to use energy and have a job including me. Since we have more people accept warming as a side effect of all of us living here. Taxing carbon will not help anything.
High flying jets are a mayor factor no one wants to talk about. Its Big money influence and besides all our leaders love to fly, Al Gore has logged more airline miles than anyone I know.

Reply to this comment

By Magnus Soevgaard (Mason City Iowa, 50401)
on June 27th, 2013

Everyone here is but but a blink of an eye in Geologic Time. Volcanoes, asteroids and gamma ray bursts from Supernovae have collectively destroyed more forms of Life both animal and plant than Man could ever hope to emulate. Why should any climate scenario favor Human life for any extended period of Time? Massive die offs on a scale that is truly incomprehensible have happened multiple times, anyone can research that. What real choice do humans have but to use the available fuel sources on the planet we evolved on? Each poster here relies on some form of energy to communicate their thoughts, no one with a computer is exempt. Does Climate Change really have a Human population to blame, the fact is not one single person on this Earth can definitively say. All posts here are opinions, the scientific data needed to prove any one person’s assumptions simply do not exist despite whatever arrogance and self aggrandizement they may exhibit. The entire system is simply too complex to dissect and extrapolate a damning answer. Forest fires cause horrific damage and lightning makes them happen as they have since forests were available to burn. Blaming HAARP and contrails is easy, actually proving it impossible once again in the face of those who consider themselves intellectually superior to everyone else. As a species we have attempted to mitigate our emissions through various means, when has Mother Nature done that?? We live on a violent planet in a violent Universe where change is constant and unpreventable. Winter here in north Iowa lasted from October through May, I have not experienced that type of lasting cold since I lived in England during the late 60’s to early 70’s. One thing is absolutely certain, Ice Ages come and go regardless of Human opinion. I would end by saying what guarantee of any perfect temperature at any time in the history of this planet exists? None.

Reply to this comment

By renaissanceman
on June 27th, 2013

Will these temperatures match those of the Medieval Warm Period (AD 950 to 1250)?
If they can grow vineyards in Northern Scotland again—then I guess so.

Reply to this comment

By arthur thomas (nelson bc V1L 6P1)
on June 27th, 2013

Ten years or so ago US DoD/AIr Force boasted their HAARP project could be used as a military deterant,  and could MODIFY THE WEATHER BY BLOCKING OR DIVERTING JET STREAMS.  Since then their official website has been sanitized of any such claims.  Why is there such a deafening silence in the newsmedia of any reference to HAARP when the weather acts up?
A fuller answer to the warm/cold/wet/dry problem could be better found asking astronomers about how the Sun is “acting-up”, since this is I understand not so much a global problem but a SOLAR one.  Cosmic rays promote change of water vapor to water droplets, and the Sun is slacking off with the shielding effect of its Gamma rays.

Reply to this comment

By kermit (Pasco, WA 99301)
on June 27th, 2013

Daniel, I seem to remember that the few studies looking at IP sources for denialist posts show that most are from a few bots; people using software that allow them to blog to multiple news and science sites using multiple logins, using the Gish gallop of bad logic, lies, and long-refuted arguments. They are probably getting paid. But yeah, most people who post denialist comments are probably acting from a few strong motivators: tribal identity (“I ain’t no hippy!”), emotional attachment to a stance they first took ten or more years ago (“I’m not going to lose this argument, and I don’t care what evidence you have.”), an urge to reject unpleasant facts (“I don’t want to give up my SUV, therefore I don’t have to.”), and fear (“I’ll be over here hiding under my blanket.”). They probably don’t get paid.

Denialists, I know you have many arguments at your disposal - It’s cold in the winter, the mighty solar panel industry is outspending the poor oil and coal industries, freedom!, you know more than the experts, and Al Gore is fat - but reality doesn’t care. It is still true that the climate is changing rapidly, the effects are very bad, and will get much worse. It doesn’t bother me so much that you are getting the world you deserve, but I and my children are also getting the world you deserve, and that bothers me.

Reply to this comment

By phil m. (ontario ca 91761)
on June 27th, 2013

very hot today I feel like a starbucks this afternoon ...

http://awholersaler.com

Reply to this comment

By Ken (new bloomfield)
on June 27th, 2013

Global Warming was first identified back in the year ‘96, that is 1896 by the Swedish chemist Svante August Arrhenius.
We are much further down the path of man made climate change than most people realize.

Reply to this comment

By Eric Peterson (Front Royal, VA 22630)
on June 27th, 2013

Tom (Chapel Hill), if you have a specific problem with anything I have written, please point it out..  I read and acknowledge all corrections and criticism.  Daniel (Las Vegas, Nevada), CO2 does affect the planet and manmade CO2 added to the natural CO2 affects the planet.  The only question is how much.

John Zoeckler, the last decade barely had any warming, maybe 0.1C to be really generous.  Sensitivity estimates are dropping.  Waiting another decade is low risk.  Putting forth reasonable solutions is also low risk, but raising everyone’s electric bill is not acceptable to me.  Why should we shut down a couple coal electric plants while China builds 2-3 new ones per week?

steve (apple valley), high flying jets are not as big a problem as some people think.  Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_efficiency_in_transportation says 90 passenger miles per U.S. gallon.

Reply to this comment

By Leslie Graham (brisbane)
on June 27th, 2013

“......These deniers sound like a bunch of “denier bots.” These are literally paid deniers, using software that enables them to assume the identity of several “people” so it appears there is more denial out there than there actually is. I read several climate-related websites and these same comments are parroted from one to the next….”

Absolutely right.
There is this one for example. “mememine” and around 5 other aliases.
Now that climate change is obvious the denial has become hysterical.
‘mememine’ is a well known astro-turfer..
He spams the same off topic gish gallops of the most absurd nonsense to any and every publication and blog that includes the word “climate” in the header.

He posts to about 40 threads under around 5 or 6 different screen-names and his total number of spam posts under the sceen-name ‘mememne69’ is nearly 10,000.
His real name is Paul Merrifield and he is a 60 year old man from Niagra Falls.


He usualy just does a ‘drive-by’ posting and doesn’t even attempt to refute the proof that he is posting BS.

I always report him as spam whenever possible.

He often changes his name but he is instantly recognisable from the same old posts week in week out.

Just shows what intelligent people are up against when there exist repulsive individuals who are prepared to threaten ours and our childrens future for his ideological beliefs..
Shamefull.

Here are just a few of his spam posts under his various guises.

29/3/2013
http://newswatch.nationalgeographic.com/2013/03/29/rise-climate-change-and-coastal-communities/
as ‘Al Bore’

http://phys.org/news/2012-12-human-role-climate-virtually-leaked.html
as ‘mememine69’(9,729 posts)

20/2/2013
http://tribune.com.pk/story/509667/climate-change-cannot-be-avoided-say-scientists/
as ‘mememine’

http://science.time.com/2012/11/27/u-n-global-warming-summit-heading-over-the-climate-cliff/
as ‘DavidNutzuki’

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By Ellen Hopkins (Carson City)
on June 28th, 2013

Denying climate change (global warming) is ridiculously shortsighted. You people who spend so much time doing that are either ignorant or scared or both. Hurricanes. Tornadoes. Blizzards and droughts (yes, both… go look up the science!) have all increased at alarming rates. Our summers in Nevada have gotten exponentially hotter, and this will be a record hot summer. Yes, after record cool temps in early June. All these symptoms are part of the larger problem. Why would you NOT want to understand the problem and take whatever small steps you can to try and turn this around, or at least slow it? Even if you’ll be dead before glacial melt floods our coastlines, don’t you have children or grandchildren, and the possibility of generations after that?

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By Brian Wilson
on June 28th, 2013

I just want to say that people that get on here and insult other people’s opinion are a complete waste of time, and your contribution does NOTHING to help the situation.

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By Shawn
on June 28th, 2013

When global warming was first fabricated, it’s proponents firmly believed it to be the only cause of the warming trends present worldwide. Thankfully, science proved otherwise and showed there are cyclical TRENDS in the weather and climate and we’re simply in one of those. Once science and fact was presented to the “global warming as caused by humans”  crowd they changed their stance to “well it certain helps speed the process up.”  We’re dealing with dear mongering and a fabricated “catastrophe” to assimilate and control the masses. There have been dozens of pole shifts and ice ages throughout history, most before the dawn of man.  You’re foolish to think this wasn’t going to happen REGARDLESS of if we were here or not. Look, I’m not saying we aren’t harming the environment, because we are. We do need to stop pollution. But don’t cling to some unprovable bandwagon because its trendy to be a treehugger. There were huge warmups around 2400bc, 1100bc, 210ad, 1350ad. It works in sine waves and its related to sunspots and volcanos… Two things your Hummer clearly doesn’t effect.

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By kermit
on June 28th, 2013

Eric,  the link of these heat waves and jet is quite strong and this effect was expected. The higher equator temperatures produce a higher atmospheric column. The air flows downhill to the poles, and here in the northern hemisphere begins to curve east from the coriolis effect, so about the time it hits the northern US border it is moving rapidly eastward at a fairly high altitude. Like those stores who leave their doors open, with a strong vertical fan blowing which forms a barrier between the hot air outside and the air conditioned inside of the store, the jet stream separates the arctic weather from the temperate climate further south. Since the Arctic is warming up much faster than the equatorial regions, ther temperature difference is smaller and makes for a weaker jet stream. It slows down, and meanders slowly eastward. Arctic weather moves farther south at times than was historically normal, and temperate temperatures have moved north. Weather systems accumulate and concentrate instead of dispersing rapidly, and we see things like Frankenstorm Sandy lingering for a week in NJ/NY, or plus 80°F Alaska and Norway. Now that heat is moving south, and Calgary’s rain is also.

The Arctic, by the way, looks like it will be melting completely by September by 2017 at the latest, perhaps even this year. As the ice melts completely at the end of summer, and the oceans warm up more than the ice because of lower albedo, we can expect these jet stream repercussions to increase significantly over the next handful of years.

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By Nick (London Ontario)
on June 28th, 2013

Having an opinion about a fact is pointless. Climate change is in fact real, and will get much worse. The science supports it overwhelmingly. It is not a theory. But let’s say for fun that it is all a big hoax and we end up reducing emissions and our reliance on fossil fuels for nothing. The worst that can happen is we end up with cleaner air and water. Still sounds worth it to me.

I have given up trying to argue with people who have yet to get with the program. They are either ill-informed or unintelligent, and we should all make a point of not entertaining any semblance of a debate. That’s the only way things will move on, and the stupid people will figure it out eventually, or not. Frankly the gene pool is better off without their contribution anyway.

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By Eric Peterson (Front Royal, VA 22630)
on June 28th, 2013

“Hurricanes. Tornadoes. Blizzards and droughts (yes, both… go look up the science!”  Droughts are not caused by global warming, nor blizzards.  Stronger hurricanes are possible in theory, but in reality we a record long period without a major hurricane hitting the US.  Strong tornadoes are in a long term decrease.  This makes sense as the Arctic warms.  The intrusion of arctic air is one of the key ingredients behind strong tornadoes.

Finally we have blizzards (and other temperate storms) made stronger by blocking patterns from a weaker polar jet.  Kermit makes that specific claim:  “Since the Arctic is warming up much faster than the equatorial regions, ther temperature difference is smaller and makes for a weaker jet stream.”

But the jet stream is at the trop of troposphere where the meridional temperature gradient is increasing.  Furthermore, the vertical gradient is also increasing as the stratosphere cools and troposphere warms.  This is straightforward CO2 warming science.  CO2 warming means a stronger polar jet.  Don’t take my word for it, read the science:

http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/sh02100q.html

But there’s a catch, the stratosphere has stopped cooling the past 5 or so years.  The natural causes behind that change may also behind the weakening and wavering of the jet.  The main suspect at the moment is declining solar activity.  But instead people like kermit want to ignore the science linked above and use rather new, untested and incoherent theories about blocking which caused the Calgery rains, Sandy, etc. being caused by Arctic warming To that I say: read the science and tell me what has changed since it was written (2001).  What is specifically incorrect?  What new science paper shows those corrections (with references to papers like the above)?

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By Nevaircal
on June 28th, 2013

First read the forecast about a month ago posted at

http://feww.wordpress.com/2013/06/05/world-record-high-temperature-could-be-broken-this-year/

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By Tom (Derby/CT/06418)
on June 28th, 2013

Arctic melting completely by September 2017 or perhaps even this year?  I’m writing this stuff down.

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By George
on June 29th, 2013

“Those odds, the study found, were about 1-in-300 during the 1951-1980 time frame, but that had increased to nearly 1-in-10 by 1981-2010.”

What were the odds of heatwaves during the 1930’s?

Lot’s of these heat records that may be challenged in the Southwest are being challenged with the help of the expanded urban heat islands that did not exist when many of the records were first established

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By Roch (87801)
on June 29th, 2013

106F/41+C, with 4% humidity, and south winds and the greenish curled dried leaves falling from the trees, cent NM.

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By Tom (Chapel Hill)
on June 30th, 2013

Leslie Graham (Brisbane), love your post!

“His real name is Paul Merrifield and he is a 60 year old man from Niagra Falls.”

I was thinking, what if all these denier bots were identified and posted on a denier website?  At some point down the road, could tar and feathers happen?  I am not saying I would do this, but armed with the information, what would people do? Sure, there’s freedom of speech, but what they are doing is akin to yelling “fire” in a movie theater.

The world they are creating is the world they deserve, but not the world our children deserve.

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By ron waite
on June 30th, 2013

We are all going to die, probably from the increased heat of our expending 98 deg air when we talk about this.

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By Galen Beesley (Moscow)
on June 30th, 2013

I came to not like the heat during the year I was in Iraq and the 15 months I was in Afghanistan. I was stationed at Fort Bliss in Texas and moved home to Idaho to escape the heat. Now the heat is coming here though not near as hot as where I was. I don’t miss the convoys in a vehicle that was 100 to 105 inside with the AC and over 115 if you count the combat gear we had on. The when you were outside in full combat gear it was 130 that really was nasty. Don’t miss those days.

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By doug (regina,sk, canada)
on July 1st, 2013

for me it is hard to beleive that any sane rational individual can turn on the news, watch disastrous natural event after natural event,  day after day and not see that there is a problem.  “Climate Change” is a reality and is happening before your eyes. from record melts in polar regions and receding glaciers to rising sea levels ,it’s all part of the same system. extremes in temperature (hot and cold), sever storms ,flooding ,drought etc.etc.  it’s the same ball of wax.
  A person could argue and debate with the unenlightened forever about the reality of climate change but what would be the point. nature will prove the point sooner as a opposed to later.  As more methane is released in the polar regions as frozen deposits melt, the changes will pick up pace dramatically. there will be nothing to argue, reality works that way.
at this point it’s more about action and causing actions, boycotts, pressing governments for stricter emission controls,  trying to educate the educatable to reduce there carbon footprint and dependence on oil and chemicals.
we need to finding alternatives to fossil fuels, even if you don’t beleive in climate change I’m fairly certain you believe and understand the global problems of pollution.

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By Eric Peterson (Front Royal, VA 22630)
on July 1st, 2013

“for me it is hard to beleive that any sane rational individual can turn on the news, watch disastrous natural event after natural event,  day after day and not see that there is a problem”

Doug, you may see more dramatic video of strong tornadoes (EF-3 or higher) on the news, but their incidence is decreasing.  A lot of the media engages in observer bias: something is covered more therefore is must be worse or more frequent.  Drought in the US is less severe than the 1930’s or even the 1950’s.  But you would never know that from watching the news.  We are currently in the longest period on record without a landfall from a major hurricane here in the US.  That one is mostly just luck.  But have you heard it on the news?

Another thing to consider is all of the violent weather alleged to be caused by global warming is a negative feedback.  Specifically as more moisture evaporates, condenses aloft and falls as rain, particularly in concentrated form, there is a larger latent heat transfer to the upper atmosphere.  If that is global, it means less global warming than there would be without those weather changes.

It’s hard to imagine more methane deposits melting in Alaska with cooling for the last decade.  Maybe other places in the Arctic, but not in dramatic amounts.

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By Rose (14580)
on July 2nd, 2013

I know that North America is having really weird weather, we are having excess rain others having excess heat. Are we the only continent subjected to this crazy weather. Is Mother Nature trying to tell us something?

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By Richard
on July 3rd, 2013

Something Interesting to NOTE:
They DO NOT fly ChemTrail missions during HIGH Pressure Weather Cycles. Obviously the program is ineffective

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By Audrey (Edmonton Alberta)
on July 4th, 2013

I am in Edmonton Alberta Canada and we got 4 days of this heat wave. July 2 we set a record with it hitting 40 which is 104 Fahrenheit.

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