Climate change in Tennessee

Climate change is affecting locations like Tennessee in a variety of ways. In fall, these impacts include more extreme rainfall, changes to fall foliage, and more unusually warm days.

Explore these pages to learn how people in Tennessee are at risk in a warming world.

Since 1970, average annual temperatures in Tennessee have gotten 2.7°F warmer, reflecting an overall warming trend.

Warming puts people and ecosystems at risk from more frequent and intense extreme weather.
Overall, the contiguous U.S. is about 2.8°F warmer today than in 1970, based on average temperatures.
Data source: NCEI Climate at a Glance

Since 1970, Tennessee's annual precipitation has increased by 1.7 inches.

Climate change is supercharging the water cycle and bringing heavier precipitation extremes across the U.S.
For every 1°F of warming, the air can hold 4% more moisture, increasing the chances of heavier downpours that contribute to flash flooding hazards.
Data source: NCEI Climate at a Glance

Tennessee's climate threats in include:

Since 1970, average fall temperatures in Tennessee have gotten 2.1°F warmer, reflecting an overall warming trend.

Fall warming means that risky heat, fire weather, and allergies linger later into the year.
Data source: NCEI Climate at a Glance

During the past 20 years, Tennessee experienced 51 more billion-dollar disasters from severe storms compared to the previous 20 years.

As the planet warms, extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense, resulting in devastating losses.
This data shows how the total number of severe storms with at least one billion dollars in damages has changed from 1980-1999 to 2005-2024.
Data source: NCEI U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters

The amount of rainfall during the heaviest rain events each year in the Southeast has increased by 37% since 1958.

Climate change is supercharging the water cycle, bringing heavier precipitation extremes across the U.S.
This chart shows how the amount of rainfall during the top 1% heaviest rain events each year in the Southeast increased between 1958 to 2021.
Data source: Fifth National Climate Assessment

Explore some ways climate change is affecting Tennessee in fall

Heavier downpours

Climate change is supercharging the water cycle, driving heavier rainfall and flood risk.

Key concepts:

Climate change is supercharging the water cycle, driving heavier rainfall and flood risk.
From 1958–2021, extreme precipitation days grew in every region, led by the Northeast (+60%) and Midwest (+45%).
Intensification will continue with future warming.
Short bursts of extreme rain threaten people, ecosystems, and infrastructure nationwide.

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Impacts to fall color

Conditions that trigger fall color are shifting with climate change.

Key concepts:

Foliage depends on temperature, day length, and rainfall — as well as other conditions including extreme weather events.
Cool fall nights can boost color, but they have warmed 2.7°F (1970–2023) in 212 U.S. locations.
Warmer falls can delay or shorten peak foliage.

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More warm fall days

Fall (September-November) has warmed nationwide since 1970.

Key concepts:

Fall (September - November) has warmed nationwide since 1970.
Warming is nationwide, strongest in the Southwest.
Hotter falls extend risks from heat, wildfire, allergies, and more.

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Changes in severe storms

Certain conditions favorable to thunderstorms and tornadoes are occurring more often

Key concepts:

Severe storms make up half of U.S. billion-dollar disasters since 1980.
Climate change is shifting storm conditions into new seasons and regions.

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Impacts to food prices

Extreme events fueled by climate change can damage crops, reduce yields, and disrupt supply chains.

Key concepts:

Food and climate change are closely linked. Food systems account for about one-quarter of all heat-trapping pollution.
Meanwhile, extreme events fueled by climate change can damage crops, reduce yields, and disrupt supply chains — all of which can drive food prices higher.
The availability, quality, and affordability of food reflect a complex set of climatic and socioeconomic factors. Emerging research is providing insight into the role of climate change.

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More graphics about Tennessee and climate change

Browse climate-related graphics for all seasons localized for Tennessee, available for download and use consistent with our Terms of use.

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Climate change in Tennessee

Tennessee's climate threats in fall include:

Explore some ways climate change is affecting Tennessee in fall

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Tennessee's climate threats in include: