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Super Typhoon Haiyan: A Hint of What’s to Come?

Super Typhoon Haiyan was one of the most intense tropical cyclones at landfall on record when it struck the Philippines on Nov. 7. Its maximum sustained winds at landfall were pegged at 195 mph with gusts above 220 mph. Some meteorologists even proclaimed it to be the strongest tropical cyclone at landfall in recorded history

Haiyan’s strength and the duration of its Category 5 intensity — the storm remained at peak Category 5 intensity for an incredible 48 straight hours — raises the question of whether manmade global warming tipped the odds in favor of such an extreme storm. After all, the global atmosphere contains 4 percent more water vapor than there was in the 1970s and global air and sea surface temperatures are higher now than they used to be, due in large part to manmade global warming as well as natural climate variability. These changes would, in theory at least, lead to stronger and wetter storms. 

High-resolution satellite image of Super Typhoon Haiyan at its peak intensity on Nov. 7.
Click image to enlarge. Credit: NOAA/CIRA.

Hurricane researchers contacted by Climate Central said Haiyan is an example of the type of extreme storm that may become more frequent as the climate continues to warm. But there is more consensus about the stormier future than there is about the present. The researchers also urged caution in attributing Haiyan’s strength to global warming, given the lack of evidence that manmade global warming has had any detectable influence on Western Pacific typhoons, let alone tropical cyclones in general (an umbrella term that includes typhoons and hurricanes).

Brian McNoldy, a a senior research associate at the University of Miami, told Climate Central that, “While Haiyan was absolutely amazing, it's not alone. It's in an elite company of a handful of other tropical cyclones scattered across the decades and across the world.”  

McNoldy downplayed global warming’s role in helping to fuel Super Typhoon Haiyan, saying, “We don't get to pick and choose which storms are enhanced by a warmer climate and which ones aren't, so this was just as subject to this year's climate as the numerous others that weren't so impressive. Extremely intense tropical cyclones are rare, but have always been a part of nature — we don't need to find an excuse for them.”

Gabe Vecchi, a research oceanographer with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), said that if global warming altered Haiyan, it did not do so to a significant extent. “I expect that the contribution of global warming to Haiyan's extreme intensity is likely to have been small, relative to other factors like weather fluctuations and climate variability."

Graphic showing the total amount of heat energy available for Super Typhoon Haiyan to absorb, not just on the surface, but integrated through the water column. Deeper, warmer pools of water are colored purple, though any region colored from pink to purple has sufficient energy to fuel storm intensification. The dotted line represents the best-track and forecast data as of 16:00 UTC on Nov. 7.
Click image to enlarge. Credit: NOAA.

Climate research has not yet provided a clear picture of how global warming is altering tropical cyclones around the world. Importantly, though, studies are providing clues that we may be in for a much stormier future, with more intense storms that bring with them stronger winds, heavier rainfall, and greater storm surge due to sea level rise.

First, there's what the science says about the present state of the atmosphere. Between the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) report in 2007 and the latest report released earlier this year, the science has become less certain on global warming's influence on such storms. That's partly because the historical records of tropical cyclones, be they hurricanes in the Atlantic or Pacific Typhoons, are full of gaps in the data, varying methodologies and inaccuracies.

The most recent IPCC report said: “Globally, there is low confidence in attribution of changes in tropical cyclone activity to human influence.” The IPCC found that insufficient observational evidence, a lack of understanding regarding the physical connection between manmade climate change and tropical storms, and considerable disagreement between studies justified downplaying any detectable changes in tropical cyclones due to global warming. 

What is clearer and more worrisome than the present picture, though, is what is expected to happen in coming decades, assuming that the climate continues to warm as expected. In general, the latest IPCC report found that manmade global warming is likely to make tropical cyclones produce more rainfall and have higher wind speeds than they typically do now, but the frequency of these storms may decline in some ocean basins.

Monster storms like Haiyan may, in fact, become more common in the future, thanks to a readier supply of warm ocean waters and possible changes to atmospheric wind shear, which can tear storms apart, in some ocean basins that could aid such storms (such changes could also inhibit storms in other ocean basins). Some studies have found that manmade emissions of soot in South Asia, in addition to global warming, have already lessened wind shear over the Indian Ocean, leading to an increase in tropical cyclone intensities there in recent years.

“The available modelling studies that are capable of producing very strong cyclones typically project substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones and it is more likely than not that this increase will be larger than 10 percent in some basins,” the IPCC report said. Given that the strongest storms tend to be responsible for a disproportionate share of storm damage and loss of life, the IPCC report said, “It should be emphasized that this metric is generally more important to physical and societal impacts than overall frequency or mean intensity.”

Projected changes in tropical cyclone statistics. All values represent expected percent change in the average over period 2081–2100 relative to 2000–2019, under a high emissions scenario. The metrics presented here include the total annual frequency of tropical storms, the annual frequency of Category 4 and 5 storms, the mean lifetime maximum intensity of tropical cyclones, and the precipitation rate within 200 km of the storm center at its most intense point. The solid blue line is the best guess of the expected percent change, and the coloured bar provides the likely confidence interval for this value.
Click image to enlarge. Credit: IPCC Working Group II.  

Vecchi, who has published a slew of scientific papers on hurricanes and global warming, told Climate Central that it may not be until the end of this century that a global warming signal emerges in tropical cyclone records.

“ . . . Globally, and by the end of the 21st century, we expect global warming to make tropical cyclones (hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones) more intense, and the frequency of the most intense storms (like Haiyan) is expected to increase,” Vecchi said in an email. “However, we have much less confidence in what global warming should do in each individual basin.”

While the scientific consensus clearly skews toward stronger, wetter, but less frequent tropical cyclones in the coming decades, there are some studies that depart from that view. In fact, a study published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in July found that tropical cyclones are likely to become both stronger and more frequent in the years to come, with a huge jump in storm frequency and intensity in the Northwest Pacific Ocean Basin. The study, by MIT hurricane expert Kerry Emanuel, used the latest generation of computer models to arrive at its results, but it has not yet been backed by subsequent research from other groups.

“It is premature to judge how robust this finding will be” once its techniques are replicated across different computer models and compared to other similar methods, Tom Knutson, a researcher at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J., said.

Related Content
Historic Super Typhoon Haiyan Assaults Philippines
Images Show Super Typhoon Haiyan's Destruction
Super Typhoon Haiyan Beelines for the Philippines
Hurricanes Likely to Get Stronger & More Frequent: Study
Top 5 Most Vulnerable U.S. Cities to Hurricanes
Surging Seas: Sea Level Rise Maps from Climate Central
Risks of Hurricane Sandy-Like Surge Events Rising

Comments

By Eric Peterson (Front Royal, VA 22630)
on November 8th, 2013

“any region colored from pink to purple has sufficient energy to fuel storm intensification”

That part of the caption from the second figure says it all.  There is sufficient heat most of the time for the level of intensity that Haiyan reached.  What is missing?  Well the figure shows even more heat closer to the equator, but there’s no Coriolis force there, none right at the equator so no hurricanes either.  Farther north the pattern of weather systems surrounding a tropical cyclone has to be perfectly arranged to produce a super typhoon with the impressive symmetry that Haiyan had.

There is likely to be zero correlation between those weather systems and local or global warming.

Reply to this comment

By Steve Goddard (Fort Collins)
on November 8th, 2013

The Philippine Government reported 146 MPH maximum sustained winds at landfall. Had the winds actually been 195 MPH, every single tree would have been knocked over. Even at 160 MPH nearly every tree would have snapped.

Reply to this comment

By William Geoghegan (Santa Fe, NM)
on November 9th, 2013

I think you’re all wet Steve.

Tropical meteorology expert Dr. Jeff Masters said that with sustained winds at 195 mph and gusting to 235 mph, the storm was the strongest tropical cyclone on record to ever make landfall and “the 4th strongest tropical cyclone in world history. The previous record was held by the Atlantic’s Hurricane Camille of 1969, which made landfall in Mississippi with 190 mph winds.” http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/super-typhoon-haiyan-latest-news-20131108

Super Typhoon Haiyan (2013), 195 mph winds, 895 mb pressure. Made landfall in the Philippines at peak strength. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2574

Reply to this comment

By Ger Groeneveld (Las Pinas/NCR/4106)
on November 9th, 2013

Sustained speeds are not that important when a tree falls over. The gustiness and frequency of battering can do far more damage.

Reply to this comment

By William Hughes-Games (Waipara New Zealand)
on November 9th, 2013

No climate scientist, worth his peer review, would attribute a single storm to climate change.  If a larger number of such storms occurred in a given year than was usual, his inhibition against attribution would ease but only slightly.  If the number or intensity of such storms increased steadily over a decade, he would begin to have a suspicion but he would likely want to have at least 30 years of trend, such as we have for the disappearance of the Arctic ice before he would come out and actually say something and this would be with all sorts of caveats.  Mean time, it is getting more and more expensive to reduce our carbon output in time to avoid disaster, if the climate scientists are correct.  By the by, we are in a long La Nina episode which warms the water in the Western Pacific around the Philippines so it is reasonable to expect strong storms at present.  Also, some work by Mann suggests that a tropical strato volcano going bang in a serious way may (note how cautious he is being) lead to La Nina like conditions.  The poor bloody (literally) people of the Philippines.  If one of their larger volcanoes blows, they can expect a higher chance of a typhoon to follow.

Reply to this comment

By Ian (Orangeville/ON/L9W 1H8)
on November 10th, 2013

Yeah, I think Climate Central got confused between MPH and KPH.

Reply to this comment

By Paul Matthews
on November 10th, 2013

The article mentions the 1970s, but not the 1970 Bangladesh cyclone that killed about half a million people.

Reply to this comment

By Eric Peterson (Front Royal, VA 22630)
on November 10th, 2013

William Hughes-Games, here are the records of the strongest storms: http://models.weatherbell.com/westpac_1950_2010_155knots.dat and here are the volcanoes: Agung (1963), El Chichon (1982) and Pinatubo (1991).  I see a Agung going off in the middle of a glut of super storms, about a dozen per decade so just a coincidence.  The years following El Chichon had just one superstorm for almost a decade.  Pinatubo did not seem to trigger anything immediately and there have been fewer since then and no volcanoes.  I don’t think there is any connection.

Reply to this comment

By Lou (Newark,Nj,07103)
on November 10th, 2013

Really? People like you just wrote that the dismal near dead 2013 Atlantic Hurricane season is the result of global warming/cooling/climate change!! hahaha!

Reply to this comment

By Vicar Gautivana (Frisco, TX 75035)
on November 11th, 2013

Where are our category 5 storms this year?

Reply to this comment

By silencedogoodreturns (Arlington, VA 22202)
on November 11th, 2013

Gee, what ever happened to all the hurricanes this year? Oops, there weren’t any. I thought “climate change” meant more frequent and more “extreme” hurricanes. Oh well. Next canard?

Reply to this comment

By John Mark Genes Apas (Cebu City)
on November 21st, 2013

Hi.. good day..

Im just a college student and im little bit curios about the climate change happening now. I just want to ask is there a possibility that climate change can cause more power typhoon/hurricanes in the near future that is stronger than “haiyan” and last question is there a possibilty that man can control and manipulatea typhoon/hurricanes.?

Just for curiosity mind;-)

Reply to this comment

By Lê Thị Xuân Lan (HO CHI MINH)
on April 9th, 2014

I would like to learn why the supertyphoon Haiyan became very very strong typhoon, how it changed the movement direction when it entered South China Sea, not moved directly to centre of Vietnam as many forecasts before

Thank and I am waiting to hear from you as soon as possible,

Le Thi XuanLan

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